February 24, 2012

IOI Corporation: Maintain Hold - No surprises

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.33



A slightly improved quarter. 2QFY12 net profit more than doubled QoQ (+124%) to RM578m (+11% YoY). Excluding exceptionals, core net profit was RM533m (+5% QoQ, +18% YoY), within expectations. We raise our FY12-14 net profit forecasts by 4.5-6.4% to reflect a higher CPO ASP assumption of RM2,800/t (+7.7%; from RM2,600/t) for 2012-13, on poorer South American crop prospects. Despite our raised earnings, IOI remains a Hold. Our new TP is RM5.33 (+4%), based on 16x CY13 PER (previously RM5.14 on 16x FY13 PER).

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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WCT: Maintain Buy - Record profits

Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.15



A positive surprise. WCT's 2011 net profit of RM162m (+8% YoY) came in 5% above our estimates, in the absence of forex losses in the final quarter. We tweak our 2012 net profit forecast up by 2% after updating our model. 2012 earnings will be underpin by record property sales in 2011. RM632m in construction job wins year-to-date is a also good start. We retain our SOP-based TP of RM3.15 (15x 2012 earnings plus 20sen increment from the KLIA2 IC concession). Maintain Buy.

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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YTL Power International: Downgrade to Hold - Dismal dividends; downgrade to Hold

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.05



Dividends disappoint again. YTLP's results were within expectations. That said, we are disappointed that it declared a second interim tax exempt DPS of only 0.9375sen or -50% QoQ as it conserves cash for M&As. We slash our dividend forecasts which now imply just 2.5% net yield. We also downgrade the stock to a Hold as there is currently only an 8% upside potential and with dividends unlikely to surprise to the upside. We tweak our DCF-based TP to RM2.05 (+1%).

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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Guinness Anchor: Upgrade to Buy - A tribute to froth and body

Stock Name: GAB
Company Name: GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 13.50



Results in line, upgrade to Buy, raising TP. 1HFY12 net profit of RM121m (+17% YoY) was boosted by sales growth on stable margins. We note Guinness' growing cash pile and would not rule out larger dividends, which could be boosted by its recent debt issuance. Improving market penetration and decent yields (net: 4.9%) coupled with possible further cash management initiatives provide upside impetus to the stock price. We raise our DCF-based TP to RM13.50.

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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Media Prima: Maintain Sell - Cost-cutting saves the day

Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 2.34




Respectable results but outlook is challenging. MPR recorded marginally better-than-expected results due to lower-than-expected costs. We tweak our earnings estimates up by 4% p.a. over 2012-13 on minor adjustments to estimated costs and introduce our 2014 forecast. Consequently, our TP is raised to RM2.34 (+4%), on an unchanged 13.5x 2012 PER. Risk-reward still does not favour investors. Given its challenging outlook and rich valuations, we still rate MPR a Sell.

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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Padiberas Nasional: Maintain Hold - A happy ending to the year

Stock Name: BERNAS
Company Name: PADIBERAS NASIONAL BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.40



Inability to raise prices crimped profits. PATAMI of RM165.7m was 6.7% lower YoY, but there was RM20m once off cost (we estimate) relating to the disposal of Save More business unit. Excluding this item, core net income of RM187.7m (+4.6% YoY) was slightly ahead of our expectations of RM180m. Business outlook is expected to perform well in 2012 as prices of raw rice has receded and Bernas will no longer bare loss making unit. Maintain Hold with unchanged target price of RM3.40/share based on DDM.

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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Nestle (Malaysia): Maintain Sell - Largely priced in

Stock Name: NESTLE
Company Name: NESTLE (M) BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 52.40



A good year as expected. Nestle's full-year net profit of RM456m, up 17% YoY, was within our and consensus expectations. Growth was primarily sales-driven, while margins were stable. Although we continue to like Nestle for its strong franchise, valuations are not cheap, with the stock trading at a prospective 2012 PER of 26x, while yields are just about fair at 3.6%. Our Sell call is maintained, but with a raised target price of RM52.40 on rolling forward our DCF valuations.

Maybank Research - 24 Feb 2012

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AXIATA - Dividend payout raised

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.15



Axiata; Hold; RM5.09
Price Target: RM5.15 (Prev: RM4.80); AXIATA MK

FY11 core earnings in line; 15sen DPS proposed, implying 19 sen FY11 DPS (60% payout). Short-term EBITDA margins may see pressure. Maintain Hold, TP revised higher to RM5.15.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

MMCCORP - Double positives



MMC Corp; Buy; RM2.78
Price Target: RM3.70; MMC MK

MMC Corporation Berhad (MMC) made two announcements on Bursa. The first is Gas Malaysia had on 23 February 2012 entered into a new agreement for the sale and purchase of dry gas with Petronas for the supply of up to 534,143 Gigajoule (492m MMScfd). The tenure is for a period of 10 years from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2022 with the option to extend for another five years.

To recap, this was one the key stumbling block which saw the listing of Gas Malaysia now slated for 2Q12, delayed from 1Q12. Hence, this piece of news will certainly pave the way for the listing soon. Our current valuation of GMSB in MMC's SOP value is RM2.8bn based on our DCF value (WACC of 8%, terminal growth of 1.5%). This values the stock at CY12 PE of 17x which may appear fair for monopolistic  company which is also a cash cow.

The second is Tanjung Bin Energy has entered into a RM5bn EPC contract with the consortium comprising Alstom Power Systems SA, Alstom Services Sdn Bhd, Mudajaya and Shin Eversendai Engineering to build the additional 1,000 MW in Tanjung Bin, Johor. Construction works are expected to be completed within 48 months from the notice to proceed.

There is a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Tenaga for a term of twenty-five (25) years from the commercial operation date which is expected on 1 March 2016. Additionally, there is also a Coal Supply and Transportation Agreement (CSTA) with TNB Fuel Services Sdn. Bhd. for the supply of coal to be used by Tanjung Bin Energy for the purpose of electricity generation by the Power Plant. No details on the PPA have been disclosed.

The generation capacity of Malakoff will increase by 20% to 6020 MW. We also expect cost synergies with its adjacent existing 2,100 MW plant enabling scale to be achieved in a shorter period. We maintain our Buy rating and TP of RM3.70.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

BHIC - Lifted by higher tax credit

Stock Name: BHIC
Company Name: BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CORP
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.00



Boustead Heavy Industries; Buy; RM3.68
Price Target: RM4.00; BHIC MK

4Q11 result beat expectations; declared 1st interim dividend of 6 sen per share. RM9bn OPV contract to provide long-term earnings visibility. Maintain Buy rating and RM4.00 TP.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

MAYBANK - Robust earnings, higher dividends

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.60



Maybank; Buy; RM8.70
Price Target: RM10.60; MAY MK

2QDec11's RM1,297m net profit was driven by higher revenues, albeit offset by higher expenses & provisions. Declared 36sen DPS (32sen applicable for DRP), implying 80% net payout; high payout likely sustainable. Maintain Buy with RM10.60 TP.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

IOICORP - Upside surprise from manufacturing

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.50



IOI Corporation; Hold; RM5.33
Price Target: RM5.50; IOI MK

Excluding translation FX gains and fair value changes, 2QFY12 profit (RM534.7m) beat our expectations. Stripping out fair value losses from derivatives contracts, Manufacturing profit grew 12.5% q-o-q; Plantations profit fell 17% on seasonally lower FFB output. Declared 7 sen DPS, payable on 29 March. Maintain Hold call and RM5.50 TP.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

YTLLAND - Size matters

Stock Name: YTLLAND
Company Name: YTL LAND & DEVELOPMENT BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.30



YTL Land; Hold; RM1.08
Price Target: RM1.30; YTLL MK

Results in line, stronger growth with contribution from Capers & Sentosa Cove. New launches to leverage on strong execution track record & branding. Maintain Hold & RNAV-based TP of RM1.30.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

WCT - Construction back on track

Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.70



WCT; Buy; RM2.69
Price Target: RM3.70; WCT MK

4Q11 was in line, driven by construction. Strong contractors will benefit from spillover contracts. Maintain Buy, SOP-derived TP of RM3.70.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

YTLPOWR - Lower dividends

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.20



YTL Power; Hold; RM1.90
Price Target: RM2.20; YTLP MK

1HFY12 result in line, but DPS was lower q-o-q. New power plant in Malaysia and potential acquisitions are longer term catalysts. Maintain Hold on reasonable valuation.

Source: HwangDBS Research 24 Feb 2012

MAYBANK - Ex EIs, Momentum Still Intact

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.12



Maybank (Buy)
  • Excluding two one offs, FY12/11results were in line with HLIB but slightly below consensus.  
  • Final div 36 sen(32 sen DRP), > HLIB's 25 sen projection.   
  • Core earnings growth momentum intact with double-digit Loans and deposits growth. Coupled with the one offs, exceeded most FY12/11 KPIs.   
  • FY12/12 ROE KPI of 15.6% vs.HLIB's 15.3%.  Targeting double-digit loans and deposits growth,increasing LDR to 90% but 10bps erosion in NIM.  
  • Asset quality improved with deterioration evidences.  However, to be conservative, it is guiding for credit charge of 35-40bps (vs. 25bps in FY12/11). 
  • Group capital ratios can meet Basel III.  Management intends to continue with DRP (given the clear benefits) post expiry of Section 108 tax credit by end FY12/12.
  • FY12-13 raised by circa 5% post final results.
  • Maintain Buy.
  • Target price raised to RM10.12 (from RM9.50) based on Gordon Growth with ROE of 15.6% and WACC of 9.9%.
Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012

Time dotCom (BUY) - 4Q11 Results: In Line

Stock Name: TIMECOM
Company Name: TIME DOTCOM BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.85



Although TdC's revenue disappoints street's estimate, FY11 core net profit of RM93.5m (ex-exceptional gain of RM20.8m) came within expectations,accounting for 95% of our full-year forecast and 86% of consensus.

Adjustments made amounting to RM22.9m (RM19.7m in 3Q11 and RM3.2m in 4Q11) for expenses recognized previously for certain projects and service contracts. The adjustments made resulted in a one-time reduction of operating expenses in the current quarter.

Recognition of impairment loss on a freehold land amounting to RM2.1m.

Continuous data momentum: revenue elevated by 26% yoy and 11% qoq, while FY11 increased 20% yoy.

Voice down trending, but stabilizing: revenue +4% yoy but zero growth qoq. while FY11results was stable.

Maintain our BUY call with unchanged SOP target price of RM0.85. If DiGi current share price is considered rather than our TP, SOP would be enhanced by 9 sen.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012

WCT (BUY) - 4Q meets consensus targets

Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.98



Reported FY11PATAMI grew by 8% to RM162.4m (20.2 sen/share), beating ours and consensus' numbers slightly by 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Net dividend of 3.75 sen/share declared, bringing full year payout to 7.5 sen/share.

After a slow 3Q, WCT's 4Q earnings rebounded led by a strong pick up in construction activities. However, the property division's earnings plunged.

Maintain BUY with TP of RM2.98. Our TP is subject to revision after the analyst briefing later.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012

Mudajaya (BUY) - Power ending for FY11

Stock Name: MUDAJYA
Company Name: MUDAJAYA GROUP BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.61



FY11 PATAMI grew by7% to RM231m (48.4 sen/share), missing ours and streets' estimates slightly by 2.6% and 3.3% respectively.

Mudajaya's FY11 earnings were largely derived from the Indian IPP project as indicated by the accelerating MI charges over the past quarters. We gather that the Indian project is 35% complete.

Additionally, Mudajaya has officially clinched the civil and structural works portion for the1,000MW Tanjung Bin power plant extension project worth RM1bn. Hence, Mudajaya has an outstanding order book of ~RM3.7bn.

FY12-13earnings reduced by 8% and 1% respectively to better reflect the timing of profit recognition. Maintain BUY call with a TP of RM4.61.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012

YTLPOWR (BUY) - Lowered Dividend on Potential M&A?

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.23



Reported 2Q12 core net profit of RM306.9m, leading to 1H12 core profit of RM594.4m, which is 45.8% of our numbers and48% of concensus. We expect earnings to improve in 2H12 due to tariff revision for Wessex.

Further cut in dividend payout to 0.9375 sen.

Stronger margins from Singapore Seraya Power due to higher utilization of combined-cycle gas power plant.

The weakened RM against SG$ on yoy basis has further increased contribution from Seraya Power in 1H12.

Despite higher revenue,YTL Communication (YTLC) continued to report larger losses of RM102.1m in 2Q12against RM94.9m losses in 1Q11 due to continued high operating cost commitment during startup phase.

Further enlarged cash piles to RM8.7bn. We will not be surprised with a potential M&A exercise in the telco industry.

Maintain BUY with unchanged Target Price of RM2.23.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012 

YNH (BUY) - FY11 results

Stock Name: YNHPROP
Company Name: YNH PROPERTY BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.74



FY11 net profit declined 19% yoy to RM46.1m, making up only 83% and 76% of HLIB and consensus estimates respectively.

This was mostly due to the heavy development costs for new Jaya Jusco mall in Manjung, which we had not factored in; we have rectified this by reducing FY12 net profit forecast by53%.

Good news from Klang Valley,as Fraser Residence enters its superstructure phase and Kiara 163 finally takes off. The SOHO units (GDV: RM200m) are 50% sold and the serviced apartments (580 units, GDV:RM600m) are now open for booking.

Rolling over our numbers, our PT is virtually unchanged from RM2.73 to RM2.74 (maintain 40% discount to RNAV, post forecast adjustments), implying 48% upside. BUY

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012 

IOI Corporation (Hold; TP: RM4.85) - In line

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.85



1HFY06/12 core net profit of RM1.04bn (+13.1%) accounted for 44.5% and 47.5% of our full-year forecast and consensus full-year estimates. We consider the results within our expectation as 2H is seasonally stronger on the back of seasonally higher FFB production.

Declared interim NDPS of 7.0 sen (ex date on 16 Mar 12 and payable on 29 Mar 12). For the full-year, we are projecting a total NDPS of 17 sen.

Maintained FY06/12-14 net profit forecasts and SOP-derived TP remains unchanged at RM4.85.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012 

Axiata (HOLD) - 4Q11 Results

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.02



Although Axiata's revenue is within forecast, FY11 core net profit of RM2,383.2m came in below expectations, accounting for 94% of our full-year forecast and 91% of consensus.

Proposed 15 sen final dividend making total for the year of 19sen representing 60% payout ratio higher than our expectation of 35%. Management guided a 65% payout ratio in 2013.

Celcom revenue grew 10% yoy driven by 10% increase in broadband subscribers and 7% increase in revenue generating base customers. Successful voice initiatives have resulted in increase in blended ARPU (+2% qoq) on the back of blended MOU (+8.6% qoq).

XL FY11revenue grew 7% yoy on the back of 14.9% growth in subscriber base. But profitability was affected by investment in data and outsourcing (severance pay).

We reiterate our HOLD call despite higher revised SOP target price of RM5.02 from RM4.92 due to higher valuation of Celcom who enjoys broadband tax incentive and bullish data growth.

Source: HLB Research 24 Feb 2012 

Nestle: Only for those with expensive tastes

Stock Name: NESTLE
Company Name: NESTLE (M) BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 48.30



Nestle's FY11 results held no surprises. Earnings growth is unexciting and its 27x P/E makes it the most expensive F&B stock on our menu. Its dividend yield of 3.6% is also lower than other consumer stocks. We
recommend a switch to the brewers which offer higher yields of 4-10%.

Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

Malayan Banking Bhd - Surfing on swift loan growth

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 11.10



Target RM11.10

We are impressed by Maybank's ability to sustain its loan growth at 20%+ for three consecutive quarters. Earnings met our expectations with net profit at 102% of our forecast and 108% of consensus for the six-month FY12/11 as the group changes its financial year-end.


Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

Media Prima Bhd - Still not beaming

Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.65



Target RM2.65


Despite the surprisingly strong FY11 results, we remain Neutral on Media Prima as visibility on 2012 adex is low given the potential economic slowdown. But the stock should be supported by its decent yields of above 4%.

Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

CNY effect is not small beer

Stock Name: GAB
Company Name: GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 14.00



Target RM14.00

Guinness's 1HFY6/12 results were strong, thanks to pre-CNY loading which led to record volumes in December. Margins were also higher as a result of higher volume growth for the Guinness and Heineken
premium beers than the mainstream Tiger.


Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

IOI Corporation - A better harvest rooted by yield recovery

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 5.04



Target RM5.04

No longer weighed down by derivative losses, IOI Corp's manufacturing division fared better in 2QFY6/12. But this division still faces challenging times as competition should heat up when new capacity comes onstream in Indonesia.


Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

Mudajaya: Powering up the project flows



Maintain Buy with higher RM3.45 target price.

Results highlights
  • Broadly in line; maintain BUY. Mudajaya''s FY11 core net profit was broadly in line, at 96% of our forecast and 95% of consensus. Though slightly lower than expected, overall EBIT margin was a commendable 22%, driven mainly by the Indian IPP EP works. This job has crossed the 30% milestone and should accelerate this year. Prospects on the local scene have turned around, going by the award of the RM1bn civil works for the Tanjung Bin power plant extension, which could be followed by more power plant and highway jobs. We maintain our FY12-13 forecasts and our trading-oriented Buy recommendation. Updating the balance sheet items, we nudge up our target price from RM3.43 to RM3.45, still pegged to a 40% discount to RNAV. Project awards remain the key catalyst.
  • Margin contraction was due to job depletion. FY11 revenue jumped 55% yoy, driven mainly by EP works for the Indian IPP and Janamanjung extension. The EP works stand at over 30% physical progress and accounted for c.50% of FY11 revenue. EBITDA margin contracted 10 % pts yoy to 22%, lower than our forecast of 25%. The contraction was due to the completion of higher-margin jobs i.e. the KLKS highway which dented construction margin by 11% pts to 22% in FY11. Nevertheless, it should pick as work on the Indian IPP progresses. Overall core net profit advanced by 7%, boosted by lower tax rates. The group declared a final single-tier DPS of 2.5 sen, bringing full-year DPS to 8 sen, which was no surprise.
  • Tanjung Bin civil works awarded. The group announced the award of the 1,000MW extension of Tanjung Bin coal-fired power plant worth RM1bn. This bumps up Mudajaya''s order book by 24% to an all-time high of RM5.2bn. We believe that it stands a good chance of securing more power plant and highway jobs. This is backed by additional extensions of coal-fired facility and new gas-fired IPPs, and new highways under 10MP. The Tanjung Bin contract forms part of our unchanged RM1.5bn total new contract assumption for 2012.
Award of Tanjung Bin civil works
Tanjung Bin EPCC signed. The much-awaited award of the Tanjung Bin civil works was announced yesterday. Mudajaya which is part of the consortium comprising Alstom Power Systems SA, Alstom Services Sdn Bhd, and Shin Eversendai signed an EPCC agreement for the 1000MW extension. Mudajaya's role is to undertake the overall civil and structural works valued at RM1bn. We understand that the equipment and procurement will be done by Alstom while steel supply and fabrication will be undertaken by Eversendai. Total development cost including the civil works is around RM5bn, as reported by the press. The extension will increase Tanjung Bin's power generating capacity from 2,100MW to 3,100MW.

Order book jumps to all-time high. For Mudajaya, we expect lucrative pretax margins of 10-15%, which is the benchmark for power plant construction in the past. The extension of the Tanjung Bin power plant is scheduled to be completed in four years but the civil works is targeted to complete a year earlier. This job should contribute RM30m-50m p.a. to net profit assuming pretax margins of 10-15%. This project bumps up Mudajaya's outstanding order book by 24% to an all-time high of RM5.2bn, of which 33% is made up of domestic power plant jobs. This award is positive for the group as it reinforces its position as the major beneficiary of the rollout of power plants in the country.

Power plants and highways
More power plant potential. We contacted management and were encouraged to learn that the visibility of contract awards over the next 12 months has improved, thanks to the rollout of more power plant and highway projects. We gather that the Energy Commission plans another 1,000MW extension of coal-fired facility which largely elevated. Opportunities in MRT and other projects. Mudajaya is among the 14 listed contractors that have prequalified for elevated, stations and depot works for the MRT SBK line. The group is bidding for the third 5km elevated stretch near Damansara with a potential value of RM800-1bn. Some remaining work for KLIA 2 is still up for tender. The group has been shortlisted for the aerobridge package worth around RM80m- 100m. It has formed a JV with another undisclosed local company. Another potential project is Petronas's Solar Farm. Through a consortium made of the group and a French company, Mudajaya is bidding for the EPCC works for the 10-13MW facility. The cost is still unknown but indications are that the benchmark cost/MW for a solar facility is around US$3m-4m. could either be implemented at the existing Janamanjung or Jimah power plants. Mudajaya stands a good chance of clinching it as the group is undertaking the civil works for the Janamanjung extension. We understand that the Janamanjung facility  has ample space for an additional 1,000MW extension as it sits on 254ha of reclaimed
land, of which only 70ha has been utilised. An additional 1,000MW extension, would almost double capacity from 2,100MW to 4,100MW.

Prequalification round for gas-fired power plant. The Energy Commission also has plans for 4,500MW of gas-fired power plants. Mudajaya, through a consortium with a Chinese party, recently submitted prequalification documents for the 1,000-1,200MW gas-fired power plant in Prai. This is part of the Energy Commission's call for tenders for new generation IPPs as the existing IPPs will expire in 2016. Mudajaya could be taking a 51% stake in the consortium. The winning party will also own an IPP concession, which would be a double positive for Mudajaya if it succeeded as the group could clinch its maiden domestic IPP as well as undertake the estimated RM1bn worth of EPCC works. We understand that there are a number of interested parties, which will be shortlisted before the calling of tenders.

Capacity for highway jobs. The group also has capacity to take on highway jobs.
The recently approved RM7.1bn West Coast Highway (WCE) remains on the group's radar. It is targeting one or two subcontracting packages worth RM400m-500m each. The award is likely to come in the later part of the year, pending the signing of the concession agreement (CA) and the award of the main contracts to IJM Corp and KEuro. Recent news reports also highlighted that Mudajaya is among the seven companies which were invited to bid for the proposed Kinrara-Damansara Expressway (KIDEX). There are limited details on the tender and award timelines but we understand that the project value could be around RM1bn as the highway is largely elevated.

Opportunities in MRT and other projects. Mudajaya is among the 14 listed contractors that have prequalified for elevated, stations and depot works for the MRT SBK line. The group is bidding for the third 5km elevated stretch near Damansara with a potential value of RM800-1bn. Some remaining work for KLIA 2 is still up for tender. The group has been shortlisted for the aerobridge package worth around RM80m-100m. It has formed a JV with another undisclosed local company. Another potential project is Petronas's Solar Farm. Through a consortium made of the group and a French company, Mudajaya is bidding for the EPCC works for the 10-13MW facility. The cost is still unknown but indications are that the benchmark cost/MW for a solar facility is around US$3m-4m.

Potential jobs
RM7.1bn West Coast Highway (WCE) : 1 or 2 subcontract packages worth RM400-500m each
MRT SBK line : Elevated/guideway package, 5km, bidding next month
KLIA 2 : Aerobridge package, shorlisted though a JV company
1,000-1,200MW Gas-fired power plant in Prai : Value is around RM1bn, prequalification submitted
1000MW extension of Janamanjung or Jimah power plant : At least RM800m in value

Recommendation
Maintain Buy with higher RM3.45 target price. We see potential catalysts for the  stock, emanating from the implementation of major jobs under the ETP, 10MP and the rollout of power plant projects. This reaffirms our Buy recommendation which is more trading oriented, in line with our Trading Buy call on the construction sector. Prospects on the local scene have turned around, going by the award of the RM1bn
civil works for the Tanjung Bin power plant extension, which could be followed by more power plant and highway jobs. We maintain our FY12-13 forecasts and our trading-oriented Buy recommendation. Updating the balance sheet items, we nudge up our target price from RM3.43 to RM3.45, still pegged to a 40% discount to RNAV. Project awards remain the key catalyst.


YTL Power International - Getting smarter

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.80



Target RM2.80

YTLP is keeping cash for M&As for which it has a good track record having acquired prime assets during the 2001 and 2008 downturns. Its WiMAX venture is still maturing but it could win the 1Bestarinet school project and accelerate the acquisition of broadband subscribers.



Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

Axiata Group - Hi(gh) dividends

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.48



Target RM5.48


Axiata's FY11 core net profit was in line with our estimate at 98% of our forecast and consensus numbers were spot on. Axiata is doubling its FY11 payout to 60% and guiding for 65% in FY12, in line with our expectations but exceeding that of the market.

Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

Perisai Petroleum - Barrels of interest at our luncheon

Stock Name: PERISAI
Company Name: PERISAI PETROLEUM TEKNOLOGI
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.45



Target RM1.45

A potential asset acquisition in 2H12 and a likely Labuan tax structure for Intan by 3Q12 were the positive surprises during our luncheon with Perisai's management yesterday. There is definitely upside to our forecasts if the plan materialises.


Source: CIMB Research 24 February 2012

A Dragon Boost

Stock Name: GAB
Company Name: GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 14.20



Let Down by O&G Logistics

Stock Name: CENTURY
Company Name: CENTURY LOGISTICS HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.94



Solid strategy, making all the right moves

Stock Name: CMMT
Company Name: CAPITAMALLS MALAYSIA TRUST
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.54



Remains operationally sound

Stock Name: FRB
Company Name: FORMIS RESOURCES BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.83



Above The Dotted Line

Stock Name: TIMECOM
Company Name: TIME DOTCOM BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: TRADING BUYTarget Price: 0.79



Mudajaya - 4QFY11 - Powering up the project flows

Stock Name: MUDAJYA
Company Name: MUDAJAYA GROUP BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.45



Imaspro Corporation - 2QFY12 Results - Rain rain go away

Stock Name: IMASPRO
Company Name: IMASPRO CORPORATION BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.77



TSH Resources - BUY FV RM2.88

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.88




4Q FY2011 Results 

Within expectations. TSH's FY11 results were inline with consensus and our estimates. 12-month revenues at RM1.148b made up of 96% of our full year target andPBT of RM162.4m almost made up of our full year estimate. For the full yearunder review, revenues grew 26% while operating profit rose 46% toRM166.9m.  EPS of 14.7sen was lower thanits previous year of 20.6sen on an enlarged share capital after its 1:1 bonusissue.  Overall, higher earnings wereattributable to higher CPO prices and better FFB production on improved yieldmanagement as well as higher mature acreages in Indonesia.  During the year, FFB production increased by43% to 399,604MT. The Wood products division continue to registera loss on sluggish demand from US and Europe. The Cocoamanufacturing division reported lower profits on lower productionand unfavourable cocoa butter prices.  

On a QoQ basis, despite 7% higher revenues of RM292.9m,the bottomline was lower than in 3Q on the lower CPO prices following the trendin FFB production cycle.  PBT fell 36% toRM30.1m and net profits of RM26.1m was 24% lower than last quarter's RM34.5m. Thelower PBT was also due to provision of doubtful debts in the wood productsdivision. 

Recommendation
We continue to view TSH with favour, as it canbank  on improvements in efficiency inplantation division and higher crop production from its Indonesia estates.  We are introducing our 2013 projections.  We applied a two-stage DDM valuation modelfor TSH, as we expect high growth in the coming years when more palms come intomaturity in Indonesia.  We have tweakedour target price upwards to RM2.88.  BUYrecommendation maintained.

KLK - HOLD FV RM23.72

Stock Name: KLK
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 23.72




1Q FY2012 Results 

Within expectations KLK's 1QFY12 results werewithin consensus and our expectations. Revenue of RM2.923b made up of 28% ofour forecast while net profit of RM341.0m was 23% of our full year target.During the quarter under review, revenue rose 21% YoY whilst PBT was up by 18% toRM463.2m. The higher YoY profit was mainly contributed by a 24.5% growth in theplantation division's profit on higher commodity prices, higher FFB productionand improvement from refinery operations that yielded better margins. In addition,a lower FRS 139 fair value loss of RM2.3m, compared to a loss of RM45.1m also contributedto the higher earnings. PBT margin of 15.8% was however lower than 16.2% incorresponding quarter of last year.

The Oleochemical division managed to record a21% growth in revenue to RM1.28b. Nevertheless, the division reported a lowerprofit of RM3.9m (1QFY11: profit of RM23.1m) on increased raw material costs and lower margins due to tough competitionin the export market.  Indonesia hadlowered its export duty structure, which conferred on its oleochemical producersan advantage of 15% lower raw material costs. In our plantation sector update reports, we had foreseen KLK's oleochemical operation would be hurt by theIndonesian government's move in lowering export duties.  We expect the division to continue to sufferfrom high raw material costs as CPO prices trended upwards and as Malaysiandownstream players faced stiff competition from rivals in Indonesia unless theMalaysian government moves to boost the landscape in export markets.  

On a quarterly basis, 1Q revenue was 2.5%lower. Net margin at 11.7% was also lower than 4QFY2011's 15.4%. This is due tolower contribution from both key revenue generators ' the plantation and leochemical divisions.  Plantation profits dipped on softer commodity prices.  Manufacturing division revenues fell by 14.5%on weaker demand. Nevertheless, the first quarter was also a seasonally lowperiod as customers were trying to keep stock levels low at the calendaryearend.

Recommendation
We expect the plantation division to continuewith  its good performance in FY12,riding on high commodity prices. Its oleochemical division's performance hasbeen adversely affected by Indonesia's export duty structure. Nevertheless, asKLK also owns Indonesian plantations, we anticipate its oleochemical plant inIndonesia to benefit from the impact of the differential in export duties. Weare keeping our  HOLD recommendation withour fair value unchanged at RM23.72.  

IJM - HOLD FV RM3.80

Stock Name: IJM
Company Name: IJM CORPORATION BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.80




3Q FY12 Results 

9MFY12 results above expectation IJMP's 9MFY12 resultswere above our expectations. 9-month PBT of RM200.8m accounted for about 92% ofour full year target whilst revenue of RM355.7m accounted for about 78% of ourfull year estimate. For the 9-month period under review, revenue rose 12% whilenet profit was up by 24% to RM150.2m on better commodity prices and higher FFB production. The average CPO price wasRM3,027/MT compared to RM2,671/MT and the average PKO price increased fromRM3,855/MT to RM4,134/MT.  FFB productionwas 12% higher on a recovery from palm yield stress in the previous financialyear.  

Indonesian estates had contributed about RM7.6min revenue to its 9M results.  FFBproduction of 16,367MT was only accounted for about 3% of its total FFB production.Its Indonesian operations are still under the planting development stage,hence, contribution is insignificant compared to Sabah operations.  The group had previously expressed itsintention to invest RM1b in its oil palm plantations in Indonesia during2012-2014 period. To date, the group has planted over 13,600ha in Indonesia.The Indonesian operations will contribute meaningfully by 2014.

3QFY12 revenue of RM146.4m was 9% higher YoYbut 19% lower QoQ. The lower QoQ revenue was due to lower sales volume for CPOand PKO as well as lower commodity prices. Nevertheless, operating margin of 48.9%was higher compared to 34.8% in 2Q. 

Recommendation
We have tweaked our forecast on its better YTDresults.  Based on a forward PE of 14x,our derived fair value is RM3.80.  HOLD

Tomei Consolidated Berhad - BUY FV RM1.16

Stock Name: TOMEI
Company Name: TOMEI CONSOLIDATED BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.16




Within expectations Tomei Consolidated Bhd(Tomei) FY11 results were within our expectations. Net profit of RM31.2mclocked in at 96% of our full year target whilst revenue of RM505.4m was 10%higher than our estimate. For the full year under review, revenue surged 42%YoY, while operating margin improved marginally from 10.4% a year ago to 10.7%.The better results were contributed by both manufacturing & wholesale andthe retail segments on higher gold prices (Figure 2). Revenue contribution frommanufacturing & wholesale sales jumped 53% from RM74.4m to RM113.6m. PBTcontribution soared 70% to RM8.3m from RM4.9m. Higher earnings in the manufacturing& wholesale segment was mainly due to higher sales volume to other jewelleryretailers. Revenue contribution from the retail segment rose 39% to RM391.8mwhilst PBT from retail segment rose 41% to RM24.2m. Improved consumers spendingin gold investment products and higher retail price in gold
contributed to better results. Theacquisition of the 'Goldheart' brand with 4 additional retail outlets also
contributed positively to the group.

On a quarterly basis, 4Q revenue wasrelatively flat at RM137.1m compared to previous quarter's RM135.3m.
PBT of RM10.7% was however 27% lowerQoQ, impacted by fluctuation in gold prices. On a yearly basis, 4Q results weregenerally better than the corresponding quarter of last year. Revenue surged46% YoY and net profit rose 25% YoY to RM6.2m from RM5.0m a year ago.

Fair Value of RM1.10 Gold prices fluctuatedand peaked at USD1,900.23/oz on 5 September 2011 before it fell to as low asUSD1,545.97/oz on 29 December 2011. It then picked up to close to USD1,770/ozrecently. Tomei is
undervalued, compared to the gold pricemovements (Figure 1). We have introduced our FY13 forecast and are
maintaining our BUY recommendationon Tomei with a fair value of RM1.16.

Source: Jupiter Securities

MMC shares stay flat at midday

Stock Name: MMCCORP
Company Name: MMC CORPORATION BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.70



MMC Corp Bhd saw major development in two of its subsidiaries yesterday but there was hardly any movement in its share price.

It was flat at RM2.78 at the end of the morning session today after opening two sen higher at RM2.80.

Yesterday, its unit, Gas Malaysia Sdn Bhd, signed a new agreement for the sale and purchase of dry gas with Petronas for a 10-year period from 2013, with the option to extend for another five years.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said the absence of the agreement was the key stumbling block for Gas Malaysia's listing, originally slated for the first quarter, but now scheduled for the second quarter this year.

"Hence, this piece of news will certainly pave the way for the listing soon," said the research house, which put Gas Malaysia's valuation in MMC's sum of part at RM2.8 billion.

HwangDBS Vickers Research put RM3.70 target price per share for MMC.

The second major news from MMC was Tanjung Bin Energy Sdn Bhd entering into a RM5 billion engineering, procurement and construction contract with a consortium comprising Alstom Power Systems SA, Alstom Services Sdn Bhd, Mudajaya and Shin Eversendai Engineering.

The contract is to build a 1,000MW power plant in Tanjung Bin, Johor, which is expected to be completed in 48 months from the notice to proceed.

Malakoff Corporation Bhd's power generation capacity will increase by 20 per cent to 6,020MW.

HwangDBS Vickers Research expects the cost synergy for the new power plant, with Malakoff's adjacent 2,100MW plant, enabling the power generation capacity to be achieved in a shorter period. -- Bernama

Malayan Banking (2HCY11 Results): stronger showing than expected (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM8.25)

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 8.25



2HCY11 performance was stronger than expected, with a pick-up in growth of deposits and net interest income in 4QCY11 compared to 3QCY11. We are thus raising our EPS forecasts by 5-8% for FY12 and FY13, resulting in a 6% increase in target price from RM7.80 to RM8.25 per share. As Maybank's share price has also appreciated 6% since our last report, we maintain a HOLD.




Source: ECMNewz Bits 24 February 2012 and view the original report at here

IOI Corporation (2QFY12 Results): Strong plantations performance (Downgrade from Trading Buy to HOLD, TP: RM4.64)

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.64




IOI Corp's 1HFY12 adjusted net profitsof RM1,041m came in within 54% of house and 49% of consensus estimates. For1HFY12, plantations boosted profits by growing 37% y-o-y, due to higher CPO ASPand FFB production. The manufacturing segment remained profitable, but profitsonly grew 2%. The group achieved CPO ASP of RM3,032/mt for the quarter (+18%y-o-y). An interim dividend of 7 sen per share was declared. We upgrade ourearnings for FY12-FY14 by 11%-19%, but we revise downwards our TP to RM4.64.Downgrade from Trading Buy to HOLD.

Source: ECMNewz Bits 24 February 2012 and view the original report at here


Axiata (4QFY11 Results): Dividend surprise! (Maintain HOLD, TP:RM5.19)

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.19



Axiata's FY11 core net profit of RM2.54bn came in within house and consensus expectations. Positively, management proposed a final tax exempt dividend of 15sen/share, bringing total net dividend to 19sen which translates into a 63% dividend payout ratio. Consequently, we increase our payout assumption for forward years from 35% to 65% given management's revised dividend policy of a minimum 65% payout ratio. We maintain our HOLD recommendation as we opine that there is not much upside potential given the current valuation.



Source: ECMNewz Bits 24 February 2012 and view the original report at here

Media Prima (4QFY11 Results): High dividend yield! (Maintain HOLD, TP: RM2.35)

Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.35




Stripping out the negative goodwill in2010, Media Prima's FY2011 adjusted net profit recorded at a decent growth of11% on the back of effective cost management in TV segment. A final interimdividend of 5.0 sen was proposed, translating into a YTD total dividend of 16sen with 4.1% yield. In view of the dimmed economic outlook, we trim ourearnings estimates by 6% in FY12-FY13. Our target price is also reduced from RM2.51to RM2.35 pegged against a mid-cycle P/E of 14x. Reiterate our HOLD call.


Source: ECMNewz Bits 24 February 2012  and view the original report at here

MEDIA (FV RM3.01 - BUY) FY11 Results Review: Big, Strong And Generous

Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.01




Media Prima's (MPR) results were commendable, with revenue of  RM1.62bn and coreearnings  of  RM207.7m coming in  within our estimates  but beat  consensus forecasts by 11%.The group has proposed another final single-tier dividend of 5.0 sen, bringingits total payout  to  16.0 sen in FY11. This is based on a higher dividendpayout ratio of 53% vs 41% in FY10. Meanwhile, revenue at its Free-to-Air (FTA)TV and print media segments rose  7.5%and 6.4% y-o-y respectively. We tweak up our earnings for FY12-FY13 by 4% and6% respectively on firm consumer spending on the home front and  the  upcoming adex-friendly 2012 Olympics and Euro2012 sports tournament.  After  the earnings revision, our FV goes up to RM3.01 from RM2.89, basedon 16x FY12 PER.  Maintain BUY.

Healthy across theboard. MPR's revenue, EBITDA and core earnings were within our expectationgrew by 5%, 3% and 4.4% y-o-y to RM1.62bn, RM404m and RM207.7m respectively.  Revenue from the group's core business, TVN(42.6% of FY11 total revenue), improved further by 6.4% y-o-y backed bystrong  adex growth in 1H and MPR'sprogress in creating content. As such, the group's (FTA) TV segment continued tohold pole position as the nation's largest TV operator,  with its FTA TV channels commanding the lion's share of  47% in terms of viewership.  Revenue from its largest contributor, PrintMedia (43% of FY11 total revenue), grew 7.2% y-o-y, led by its flagshippublicationsHarian Metro and Berita Harian, snaring a whopping 44% and 24% share respectively  of readership. MPR's outdoor media segment also reported 10% y-o-y revenuegrowth to RM144m. We believe the group will continue to enlarge its footprint withinthis segment as there are still plenty of unutilized strategic slots  along the expressways.

Improvedprofitability. On a quarterly basis, the group's revenue of RM429m was higherby 4% y-o-y and 3% q-o-q on the back of resilient growth in its overallbusiness,with the TV segment, radio and outdoor, reporting +5%, +22% and 3.4%q-o-q growth to RM187m, RM17m and RM39m respectively owing to the Christmasfestive season and the country's year-end sales. EBIT, PBT and core earningssurged 31%, 36% and 41%  respectively  due to the group's prudent costcontrols,  which resulted in  healthier profits. Continuing with itsgenerosity this year, MPR has proposed to pay another final single-tierdividend of 5.0 sen for the quarter, bringing its total FY11 payout to 16.0sen. This is based on a higher dividend payout ratio of 53% vis-''-vis 41% inFY10, translating into a healthy dividend yield of 6%.

Valuations &Recommendations
Maintain BUY, with higher FV. We remain positive on thegroup's prospects going forward and believe its core divisions of TVN, printand outdoor  will  continue to chalk up revenue and  operating profit growth in anticipation ofthe upcoming adex-friendly events such as 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012tournament. We see  a  high possibility of  the group offering more cross-platformadvertising packages to  better  meet customers' needs  going forward. Hence, we reiterate our BUYcall for MPR, with  our FV raised  from RM2.89 to RM3.01, based on 16x FY12 PER,following the upward revision in our core earnings estimates by 4% -6% forFY12-13 respectively.

Source: OSK188


AXIATA (FV RM5.80 - BUY) FY11 Results Review: Picking Up The Dividend Call




Axiata's full-year results met our and street estimates witha variance of 3-5%. The highlight was the higher than expected final DPS of 15sen/share, with the group raising its payout guidance to 65% from 30%. This isa positive surprise considering that the market had under-estimated thetimeline and magnitude of the payout. Axiata stays as one of our top picks inthe telecoms sector given the twin catalysts of reasonable growth and  rising dividend yields in closing the gap withits local peers. We maintain our BUY recommendation, with  our SOP FV bumped up to RM5.80 (from RM5.60 previously) on rolling over toFY13. 

In line- results issecondary. Stripping out one-offs totaling RM40m and RM193m for 4QFY11 andFY11 respectively (including a RM140m broadband tax incentive at Celcom),Axiata's core earnings made up 95% and 97% of our and consensus estimates (resultswere 3% off our/street revenue and EBITDA projections). A pleasant surprise wasthe  proposed  bumper final DPS  of 15 sen/share, which together with the interim DPS totals 19sen/share, or apayout of 60% for FY11 (FY10: 10sen/share). The bumper payout indicates thegroup's willingness to meet  investors'expectations of rising dividends as it is rapidly building cash, thanks to  the strong operational momentum across few OpCos. FY11 revenue and EBITDAgrowth of 5.3% and 1% respectively fell short of the articulated KPIs of 10%and 10.3% but the market has already priced in the slower growth. Overall, welower our FY12/13 forecasts by 5-7% post the results conference call, duringwhich  Axiata shared its 2012 KPIs (seeTable 2).

Celcom revenue growthoutstrips Digi's in 4Q. Celcom's voice resuscitation efforts paid off  as they helped arrest the decline in domesticvoice and led to the very strong 4% q-o-q growth in revenue, above Digi's +2%q-o-q and likely Maxis', which is due to announce its results today. Celcom'sMOU/ARPU grew for the second consecutive quarter, with data making up 34% ofrevenue in 4QFY11. While Celcom noted that Maxis was  'quite aggressive'' during the quarter,Digi's earlier  observation of  stronger competitive response from U Mobilesuggests that the telcos perceive competition from rivals differently, withMaxis possibly seen as a stronger threat to Celcom.  
Good showing acrossmost OpCos. XL's revenue grew 3%, supported by a 4% rise in voice revenuedespite the premium SMS ruling while Dialog's EBITDA expanded a strong 11% q-o-qagainst a 3% q-o-q increase in revenue (+10% y-o-y for FY11) as the telcobenefited from the steady pricing environment and kept a tight lid on opex. ItspayTV business (DBN) posted inaugural profits since the business was acquired  6years ago. Robi marked another high in terms of quarterly revenue, up 5% q-o-q,but EBITDA margin fell marginally due to the higher regulatory fees paid torenew its 2G licence.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS FROMTHE CONFERENCE CALL WITH MANAGEMENT
Driving data across.Axiata highlighted that overall data revenue (including SMS) for the groupsurged 29% y-o-y in FY11 making up 20% of consolidated revenue, led by XL andCelcom. While voice cannibalization remains a concern, it noted that theerosion in voice revenue per minute (RPM) for Celcom and Dialog was under 10%y-o-y compared to the over 20% y-o-y fall across all OpCos (adjusted for forex)indicating stabilization in  prices forthe more mature markets. The RPM erosion at XL was  a strong 17% y-o-y in FY11, as due to the fiercecompetition from Telkomsel and Indosat, particularly in 1H2011. Axiata expectsEBITDA margin for the group to remain under pressure over the medium term dueto rising proportion of non-voice revenue which incur lower margin.    

Dividend payout  deemed 'conservative'.  Axiatasaid  the higher 65%  payout guidance hastaken into account potential M&As and capex. It  is also  independent of the dividendincome  it  receives from OpCos. We see prospectivedividend streams being supported by its rising FCF yields of 7-10% for FY12/13and on the back of the net debt/EBITDA of 0.7x, leaving  room for  more capital management initiatives. Our DPS forecasts have been raised to 21 sen/share and 24 sen/sharerespectively for FY12 and FY13.

No equity injectionfor Idea. Axiata is comfortable with its current shareholding in Idea,which is already close to the 20.11% cap allowed under the agreement with itspartner, the Aditya Birla Group. Management believes India's regulatoryoverhang will clear up over the course of the year and highlighted the  downside from the recent cancellations of 122 mobile licences in India  as having an insignificant impact given thatthe affected circles are EBITDA negative. This is consistent with our earlierview. 

RM4.4bn capex for2012. Management has maintained group capex guidance at RM4.4bn for FY12,mainly for  Celcom (RM800-RM1bn) which iscurrently modernizing its network and XL (RM2.5bn) which has front-loaded its investmentfor data.  Capex spending is likely topeak in 2013.

Source: OSK188

MUDJYA (FV RM3.88 - BUY) FY11 Results Review: Aided by Tax Rate Boost

Stock Name: MUDAJYA
Company Name: MUDAJAYA GROUP BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.88




Mudajaya's FY11  netprofit  of RM231.0m came in withinour  and consensus estimates, aided by afavourable tax rate of 5.8%. At the pretax level, earnings lagged bothestimates by 21.1% and 12.3% respectively, owing to  lower construction margins recognized  and start-up expenses for its associate. Afinal DPS of 2.5 sen was proposed, bringing its FY11 DPS to 8.0 sen. On aseparate note, Mudajaya bagged the RM1bn civil works contract of the TanjungBin plant extension. Maintain BUY with our FV marginally lowered to RM3.88.

Subpar margins.Mudajaya's FY11  revenue of RM1347.1msurged 54.8% y-o-y driven by the 63.2% jump in contribution from its constructiondivision, which saw the delivery of equipment components for  its Chhattisgarh  power plant. However, PBT  improved by a more moderate 5.6% to RM293.9mas margins retreated on escalating material costs and the sharing of start-upexpenses in its associate RKM Powergen. All in all, FY11 core earnings were up7.2% y-o-y to RM231.0m despite higher leakages on minority interest (which morethan doubled to RM45.9m due to ongoing works in Chhattisgarh) as the groupregistered a below average effective tax rate of 5.8% for the year. It proposeda final DPS of 2.5 sen, bringing its FY11 DPS to 8.0 sen which implies a 20%payout ratio.

Decent quarterlynumbers. 4QFY11 numbers generally marked some decent improvements in termsof both sequential and y-o-y, as we understand that  its work in Chhattisgarh is now back on track and in full swing. Managementguided that it has recognized close to 40% of the project with the first 2units of the power plant ready to be commissioned by end-2012, with the remainingexpected to be ready by mid-2013.  

Tg Bin in its bag.  On a separate announcement, Mudajayaconfirmed that it  was awarded the RM1bncontract for the construction of civil works for the 1,000MW Tanjung Bin plantextension, with the job likely to be completed by mid-2015. We deem the announcementwithin our expectations (as highlighted in our previous report entitled 'Likely To Snag Tanjung Bin Job'). Mudajaya'sorderbook has now swelled to RM4.6bn (excluding RM1bn legacy jobs), which inour view could keep it busy well into 2014.
BUY. We aretweaking our construction margins lower as a precautionary stance in view offurther potential weaknesses, but we are incorporating the RM1bn Tg Binextension into our orderbook assumptions. Consequently, our  FY12 EPS forecast  is lowered by 6.0%but our FY13 core earnings are bumped up by 5.6%. Although the group has alreadyhit our FY12 orderbook replenishment target of RM1bn, we do not discount the possibilityof it securing more contracts this year as the Government accelerates the implementationof mega-billion construction projects, including the 2,400MW Prai power plant.Maintain BUY with its FV marginally lowered to RM3.88 based on our SOP valuation.

Source: OSK188

WCT Bhd - Stepping up the plate BUY

Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.05




Maintain BUY on WCT with a slight increase in our fair valueto RM3.05/share (previously: RM3.00/share) ' pegging the stock at an unchanged15% discount to its sum-of-parts value as we roll forward our valuation base toFY12F. 

' WCT reported FY11 results which were largely in line with expectations,coming in at between 2%-4% higher than both the street and our estimates.

' FY11 net profit rose 8% YoY to RM162mil. This was largely aidedby a pick-up in progress for some of its on-going projects and higherrecognition from its growing property investment portfolio.   

' On a sequential basis, construction earnings gained 49%QoQ on a step-up in progress for on-going projects. 

' WCT's order book trajectory is fast-improving. TheRM300mil Kota Kinabalu medical facility contract announced two days ago bringstotal new job wins to ~RM630mil within just two months into FY12F, and alreadysurpasses the RM187mil secured for the whole of 2011. 

' WCT's current tender book stands at RM4bil-RM5bil vs. outstandingorders of ~RM3bil+. About RM3bil of the tender book involves the Middle East(including the Oman expressway projects), with the balance comprising various localjobs.

' Key domestic bids include: (i) sub-contracting works forthe West Coast Expressway; (ii) station works for the Sg.BulohKajang MRT line;(iii) infrastructure opportunities within Iskandar Johor; (iv) Vale iron orefacility; (v) additional works at KLIA2; (vi) Langat 2; (vii) KL InternationalFinancial District (KLIFD); (viii) Gemas-JB double tracking; (viii) PenangTraffic Alleviation plan; and (ix) building jobs within the KL City Centre. WCT'snew property sales reached a record of RM400mil+ in FY11. Moving into thisyear, we gather that planned launches could be raised to ~RM1bil with apre-sales target  of ~RM700mil. Apartfrom its flagship Bandar Bukit Tinggi development, new launches would come fromMedini Iskandar, Bukit Jelutong and Paradigm office suites.    

' Despite the +13% increase in its share price ytd, WCT's valuationsare still compelling at FY12F-13F PEs of 11x-13x, still below its historicalpeak of 15x. Further valuation upside would come from future recurring incomefrom the KLIA2 integrated complex ' due by year-end (not included in our forecastyet).    

Media Prima - TV to drive FY12F earnings BUY

Stock Name: MEDIA
Company Name: MEDIA PRIMA BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.10




We re-iterate our BUY rating on Media Prima (MPrima) with a higherDCF-based fair value of RM3.10/share, vs. RM3.03/share previously. Our impliedforward PE of 13x is well within the stock's PE band of 13x-15x.

' MPrima posted a core net profit of RM205mil for FY11,which came in above our expectations. FY11 earnings was 10% ahead of ourforecast and by 6% above consensus ' the positive variance owing tostronger-than-expected adex volume in 4Q. 

' Management has proposed a final single-tier dividend of 5 sen,bringing total dividends to 13 sen/share for this quarter (inclusive of asingle-tiered 2nd interim of 3 sen and a special 5 sen declared in November2011). FY11 dividends of 16 sen/share translate into a generous payout of 80% '6 sen higher than our DPS forecast.

' The group recorded solid earnings for 4Q which rose 36% QoQto RM73mil, despite a marginal 2% increase in turnover. The improvedperformance was attributed largely to:- 1) Accelerated adex spending in thefinal quarter as advertisers exhausted their ad-budgets and; 2) A 4ppt- EBITDAmargin boost from better cost management.

' On a YoY basis, turnover increased 5% mainly on the back ofhigher revenues from TV and print, which grew 5% each, and outdoor division at10%. Stripping out EIs of RM54mil (largely owing to negative goodwill fromacquisition of NSTP), FY11 core net profit was up 9% from the preceding year.
' Management has guided for increased content costs for FY13F,as the group invests in more local contents and quality TV programmes to ensure viewership market share (FY11: +1pptto 47%). Performance of the print division remains healthy via Harian Metropaper, in tandem with growing Malay language adex that grew 5ppts to 31%  in 2011. 

' The performance of radio stations, which was affected by stiffcompetition, should see some improvement moving forward with the launching ofHotTerengganu and HotKelantan radio stations soon. Outdoor media which saw flatgrowth should rebound over next few quarters given the tail-end of itsgestation period following outdoor  mediaacquisitions.

' All in, we have raised our earnings forecast for FY12F-13Fby 3%-4%, post the group's full-year figures. No change to our industry adexgrowth forecast of 8%-9% for 2012-13. Adfriendly special world events such asthe Euro Cup 2012 and London Olympics this year are expected to boost adex spending,with further upside arising from a potential snap general election.  


Source: AmeSecurities

Bintulu Port - New LNG train on the way BUY

Stock Name: BIPORT
Company Name: BINTULU PORT HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.33




' We maintain our BUY rating on Bintulu Port, with our fair valueunchanged at RM8.33/share. Our DCF valuation assumes a cost of equity of 7.9%with a terminal growth rate of 1%.

' We understand Petronas would add an additional liquefied naturalgas (LNG) train with a capacity of 3.6mtpa at its LNG complex in Bintulu. Thenew train will take its total capacity to 27.6mtpa. 

' The contract for the front-end engineering design (FEED) forthe new train project has been awarded to JGC Corporation and to a partnershipbetween Chiyoda Corporation and Saipem S.p.A.

' There will be no additional capex required as the three jettieswould be able to accommodate 28mtpa of LNG throughput. Bintulu Port has, onaverage, handled about 23mtpa of LNG over the past five years. We are expectingthroughput to be flat over the next few years as it is already operating atalmost full capacity.

' We are not changing our estimates as the new LNG Train 9 wouldonly start operations in 4Q2015, which is beyond our forecast horizon.Nonetheless, we estimate the additional 3.6mtpa throughput will bring inadditional RM35mil (accounting 8% of FY10 revenue) in revenue ' via berthcharges ' and circa RM10mil in pre-tax profit to Bintulu Port. Also, the impactto our DCF valuation will only be minimal, an increase of only 4%.

' That aside, we believe the interest on the company would bepremised on its expected 'monopoly' on SCORE's logistics requirement viaSamalaju Port. The federal government has recently approved RM500mil to fundthe maiden phase of the new port. 

Axiata Group - Dividend surprise, positioned for acquisitive growth BUY

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.90





' We maintain our BUY rating on Axiata with a lower fair valueof RM5.90/share (vs. RM6.08/share previously) following the announcement of its4Q11 results yesterday. Axiata remains our top pick in the sector.

' The group reported a core net profit of RM585mil for its 4Q11,which brought FY11 core net earnings to RM2.5bil. This was short of ourexpectation but within consensus, accounting for 90% and 97% of full-yearestimates, respectively. Given weaker than expected results, we trim ourFY12-13F earnings by 5%-7% to reflect lower margin expectations going forward.

' EBITDA rose 1% YoY on the back of a 5% revenue growth. Onconstant currency, EBITDA would have grown by 3% and revenue by 7.5%.Normalised net profit grew 2% YoY. Celcom registered a 2% YoY EBITDA growth onthe back of a 6% revenue growth. 

' Earnings asides, dividends surprised on the upside. Axiataannounced a final dividend of 15 sen/share, which brought full-year dividendsto 19 sen/share (net dividend yield of 3.7%). This is effectively 90% higherthan last year's dividend and represents almost a doubling in payout ratio to60% from 35% previously. Management guides for ahigher 2012 payout of 65%,which translates into a  net dividendyield of 4.4%. 

' 2011 was a washout year, dragged by stiff competition and unfavourableforex movements. However, an underutilised balance sheet (0.2x net gearing,which in fact, is one of the lowest among regional telcos) positions Axiatawell to capture acquisitive growth opportunities (See Table 1). We estimatethat the group can comfortably gear up to RM6bil to fund any potential M&A.Any capital raising exercise in the near-term should serve to vindicate ourthesis.

' On top of this, Axiata entails the best potential forupside dividend surprise in our opinion ' there is abundant room to capitaliseon retained earnings (relative to Maxis/DiGi) and cash to pay out dividendsgiven low net debt/EBITDA of 0.5x, gross cash of RM6bil and FCF of close toRM2bil.

' Telco stocks have performed well over the past 12 months andyields have compressed significantly. However, we believe telcos should remainattractive given relative earnings stability. We like Axiata best in the sectorgiven:-
(1) Axiata is a laggard' valuation at over 30% discount to sectorEV/EBITDA of 9x, partly given that it was not as committed to dividend payoutsas local telco peers previously; (2) Best potential for upside dividendsurprise. 

YTL Power - Steady earnings but lower dividend payout HOLD




' We maintain our HOLD call on YTL Power International Bhd(YTLP), with a fair value of RM2.05/share based on a 15% discount to oursum-of-parts (SOP) value of RM2.42/share.
 
' YTLP's 1HFY12 net profit of RM248mil came in within expectations,accounting for 48% of our FY12F earnings of RM1,168mil and 45% of streetestimate's RM1,244mil. Hence, we maintain FY12F-FY14F earnings.

' But YTLP declared a second interim single-tier dividend of0.9 sen/share, half of the previous quarter's, likely due to the group'supcoming investment plans in new utilities and WiMax projects. The 1HFY12dividend of 2.8 sen/share represents a payout ratio of 36% vs. our earlier assumptionof 50%. Hence, we have reduced FY12F-FY13F dividends by 50%, which translatesinto an unexciting yield of 3%. 

' Sequentially, YTLP's 2QFY12 pre-tax profit rose 28% to RM314mildue to:- (1) higher electricity sales and lower maintenance charges for thepower division; (2) fair value adjustments for fuel and lower financing costsfor PowerSeraya; and (3) higher forex gains which partly offset investmentlosses. 

' Overseas operations accounted for 88% of the group's 1HFY12pre-tax profit, for which the Malaysian-based gasfired power generation plantsand 35%-owned PT Jawacontributed 23%, UK's Wessex Water 28% and Singapore's PowerSeraya 49% (See Table 2). 

' In 1HFY12, the new mobile broadband division registered a higherloss of RM197mil (vs. RM28mil in 1HFY11) due to the division's start-up andincreasing fixed operating costs.

' The group plans to install Yes 4G connectivity in Proton'ssoon-to-be launched P3-21A sedan and future models.While this is an innovativestrategy to carve out a niche, we await further news of market acceptance forYes' service and price plans. Hence, we maintain our FY12FFY14F lossassumptions of RM100mil-RM250mil for thegroup's Yes division. Recall that thegroup indicated that Yes will need a subscriber base of 1 million (vs. over 300,000currently) to break even.

' We also remain concerned about the group's proposedinvestmentin a 30% stake in an Estonian state oil company-led oil shale project in Jordancomprising an oil plant with a capacity of 38,000 barrels/day and a 900 Mega Wattoil-shale fired power plant, which could cost US$5bil.

' The stock currently trades at a fair CY12F PE of 12x ' withinits three-year diluted PE band of 10x-16x.

Source: Amesecurities