January 7, 2012

HLIB Research 6 January 2012 (Automotive; GenM; Trading Ideas)

Stock Name: DRBHCOM
Company Name: DRB-HICOM BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.00

Malaysia Automotive: On Road to Recovery 2012

'''' Expect recovery in 2012 TIV at 6% growth yoy, as we expect higher household disposable income in 2012 (asset inflation wealth effect since 2009, 2012 Budgets and ETP implementation in 2012), as well as supply chain recovery boosting deliveries (UMW and TCM).

'''' Malaysia's automotive sector is essentially domestic driven, which is reaching maturing growth stage. Expect long term growth to trend down. Future growth opportunity coming from regional markets i.e. through exports (DRB with VW, TCM with Subaru & potentially Proton with Mitsubishi) or new market penetration (TCM into Indochina).

'''' Continued government policies to protect domestic automotive industry, benefiting Proton and Perodua (UMW & MBM) in terms of pricing advantages, with leading market shares.

'''' Continued government support for hybrid and EV technology, to address high fuel subsidies and environmental concerns, benefiting DRB (Honda Insight) and UMW (Toyota Prius & Lexus CT200h).

'''' We initiate the automotive sector with Overweight. Our Top Picks are:

1.'' DRB (BUY, TP RM2.90) ' Severely undervalued counter, realization of synergies between Pos and existing business units, VW regional hub ensuring long term earnings growth.

2.'' TCM (BUY, TP RM5.10) ' Leveraging on strong relationship with Nissan in penetrating Indochina market, increasing plant utilization from contract assembling for Subaru and Foton, as well as better positioned for supply chain recovery in 2012.

3.'' Proton (Trading Buy, TP RM6.00) ' Potentially Khazanah paring down 42.7% stake, triggering mandatory general offer. However, we view that Proton needs to have strong foreign partnership for technology transfer and fundings.


Genting Malaysia (HOLD TP RM4.07)

RWNY To Expand Further?

'''' GenM announced that its subsidiary, Genting NY has entered into a non-binding letter of intent with Empire State Development Corporation to develop a 3.8m sq ft integrated convention and exhibition centre with up to 3,000 hotel rooms, costing at least US$4bn (~RM12.56bn).

'''' This project could contribute positively to GenM as RWNY will become a full-fledged integrated resort, drawing more visitors into the casino, especially businessmen and hotel guests. The development would also increase visitors' convenience to get into the casino.

'''' RWNY will undergo expansion as well, offering more than its current 5,000 machines to cater for the additional customers. No further information was given on the time frame of the development. However, assuming the development takes 3 years to complete, GenM will still have a healthy net gearing level of 0.1-0.3x.

'''' No changed to our forecast pending more information on the development, hence we reiterate our HOLD call with target price of RM4.07.


HUAYANG (RM1.18 ' Buy on weakness): Consolidating upwards

'''''''' Technically, we think the stock is ripe for a stronger rebound as a break above its daily upper Bollinger band near RM1.20 would catalyse its share price performance.

'''''''' Once this level is taken out, prices are likely to charge towards the RM1.25 (weekly upper Bollinger band) and 52-wk high of RM1.37. More significant resistance is RM1.58 (123.6% FR). Immediate supports are RM1.04-1.14. Cut loss below RM1.04.


WIJAYA (RM0.81 ' Trading Buy): Building its base before further breakout above RM0.95

'''''''' Wijaya is trying to retest its 52-wk high of RM0.85 following its recent horizontal breakout near RM0.80. A strong breakout will enhance further re-rate towards RM0.95 and RM1.00 in the medium term. MACD signal line is slowly picking up, suggesting that buyers are slowly making a comeback. RSI too is above the 50pts mark. The odds favour the bulls here as Wijaya is consolidating nicely above the weekly uptrend line and saucer base supports.

'''''''' Supports are near RM0.70-0.75. Cut loss if RM0.68 (15 Dec 11 low) is breached.

January 6, 2012

RHBInvest Research Highlights 06th January 2012

Stock Name: TM
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.85

Stock Name: DIGI
Company Name: DIGI.COM BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.10

Stock Name: MAXIS
Company Name: MAXIS BERHAD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.90

06th January 2012
Top Story
Telecom ' Still some bright spots left                                                                           Overweight
Sector Update
-          We expect mobile operators to sustain their revenue growth momentum in 2012 thanks to rising non-voice revenue contributions, while TM should benefit from strong UniFi momentum. 
-          Competition should remain stable, despite the impending entrance of a new player, Puncak Semangat. So far, new entrants yet to gain significant market share from the incumbents.
-          TM's fair value is raised to RM5.85 on account of lower required net yield assumption. TM remains our top pick for its capital management potential and domestic-centric qualities. Fair values for DiGi and Maxis are raised to RM4.10 and RM5.90 respectively on lower WACC.
-          Related story: Telecom Sector Update ' 3QCY11 report card (9 Dec 2011)
Sector Update
Banking ' Headwinds yet to ease                                                                              Underweight
Sector Update
-          We are maintaining our Underweight stance on the sector amid prospects of weaker economic conditions ahead. Three main factors that underpin our bearish sector view are as below.
-          Historically, the sector has not performed well during an economic downturn as banks are often viewed as a proxy to the economy.
-          For 2012, we project aggregate sector net profit growth to slow to 4.5%, from 10.6% for 2011 but we do not discount further downside risks to our forecasts.
Property ' M+S progressing'                                                                                           Neutral
Sector Update
-          The recent meeting between the PMs of Malaysia and Singapore touched on the development status of the Marina South and Ophir-Rochor projects in Singapore, as well as the Resort Wellness and Urban Wellness projects at Medini. Capitaland has been appointed to join the team of key consultants and architects for the Urban Wellness project at Medini North.
-          What is new is that an underground border link is currently under consideration. We believe plans are preliminary with lots of uncertainties. Both governments will have to consent on many terms, including location, funding and EIA. All these will take some time.
-          The impact of this news is rather neutral, but it nonetheless continues to signal the warm relationship between the governments of the two countries. Maintain Neutral.
-          Related story : Property Sector Update ' Bad news priced in but outlook remains challenging (5th Jan 2012)
Corporate Highlights
Genting Malaysia ' Obtains letter of intent for convention centre/hotel complex in NY      Outperform
News Update
-          Genting Malaysia's New York unit has entered into a non-binding letter of intent with the New York State Urban Development Corporation to consider the development of a US$4bn integrated complex including a 3.8m sq ft convention and exhibition centre with up to 3,000 hotel rooms and an expansion of Resorts World Casino New York City on a property next to its Aqueduct Racetrack with a view to enter into a binding MOU on or before 30 Nov.

Malaysia Airports Holdings (BUY): Slowdown in traffic growth has begun

Stock Name: AIRPORT
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.00

First signs of aviation down cycle. MAHB's November 2011 traffic statistics reveal a passenger growth of 9.5% YoY (11M 2011: +11.2% YoY). Whilst this is good growth, the momentum has slowed down from mid-teen levels achieved in the first half of 2011. Cargo volumes grew marginally by 4.5% YoY (11M 2011: -2.2% YoY) underpin by strong domestic related growth. Maintain Buy on MAHB; no change to our earnings forecasts and RM7.00/share DCF-based target price.

Maybank research (6 January 2012)

Click here for full report

Genting Malaysia (Hold): Its New York apple just may get bigger

Stock Name: GENM
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.88

Early days yet. Genting Malaysia (GENM) has entered into a non-binding LOI to consider developing a US$4b integrated mixed-use property on land adjacent to Resorts World New York (RWNY). We believe that this development will not proceed without the introduction of table games at RWNY to justify the investment, which will likely require at least two years to be legalised and another few years to be commercialised. Maintain Hold on GENM and RM3.88 DCF-based TP.

Maybank research (6 January 2012)

Click here for full report

Potential boost from Pengerang power plant

Stock Name: PETGAS
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 15.30

Growing Big In The States

Stock Name: GENM
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.40

January 5, 2012

OSK: JCY Intl RM300m capex positive move

Stock Name: JCY
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.48

JCY International Bhd's move to allocate RM300 million in capital expenditure (capex) to expand its facilities in
Malaysia, Thailand and China is positive in the long term, said OSK Research Sdn Bhd.

In a research note today, OSK said the move indicated the management's commitment and conviction to strengthen its position as a components maker.

"Nonetheless, we see the allocation as a fluid target in view of prevailing market conditions," it said.

It said JCY, which recently posted a strong first-quarter net profit of RM150 million, a 100 per cent increase year-on-year, emerged from the Thai floods relatively unscathed.

"The floods and the subsequent component shortfall have taken a toll on most of its competitors," it said. OSK said it would maintain a 'trading buy' on the stock with a higher fair
value of RM1.48, from RM1.30 previously. -- Bernama

OSK revised Time dotCom to 'neutral'

Stock Name: TIMECOM
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.70

OSK Research has revised downwards Time dotCom Bhd to "neutral" from "buy" based on an unchanged sum-of-parts fair value
of 70 sen.

In a research note today, it said the recommendation did not factor in the contribution from the recently acquired Global Transit Communications Sdn Bhd, Global Transit Ltd and Applied Information Management Services Sdn Bhd pending further guidance from the management.

"We expect limited price upside, even after including the implied valuations of the three companies," it said, adding that Time dotCom also proposed to acquire Global Transit Singapore and Global Transit Hong Kong.

It said the acquisitions were made to enter the international submarine cable business, tap into the regional wholesale customer base, strengthen the global bandwidth business and diversify into the high growth data centre and managed services business.

"Management reckons that earnings should grow at the mid-teens level, fuelled by the wholesale data segment.

"It (Time dotCom) believes the business will outpace the annual bandwidth price erosion of 15-20 per cent and mitigate the cannibalisation of voice revenue," OSK Research said. -- Bernama

HLIB Research 6 Jan 2011 (Hua Yang; JCY)

Stock Name: JCY
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.26

Hua Yang (Not Rated)

A Pure Play In Affordable Housing

'''' An established developer within the affordable housing niche, with a first-mover advantage.

'''' Moving more aggressively and dynamically under their new CEO, Mr Ho Wen Yan.

'''' We see RM500m as the RM500m is the "magic number" in terms of launches, and they have lined up RM1.3bn launches for the next 2 years

'''' Some good news for their flagship project One South, as an additional phase of high-rise serviced apartments has been added in, which could bring overall GDV to the RM1bn mark.

'''' We are forecasting 69-96% earnings growth in FY11-12, and in our view Hua Yang provides the cheapest exposure to the affordable housing theme, given that it trades at less than 5x P/E.

'''' We set our target price at RM1.52 (70% discount to RNAV), implying 3.1x P/E for FY12E.



Thanks to the Flood

'''' The firm is expecting its net profit to jump approximately 1,900% qoq or 460% qoq, which translates between the ranges of RM121.62 to RM142.69m for the financial quarter ended 31 December 2011 (1Q12).

'''' JCY has also budgeted a CAPEX of approximately RM300m over 2 years for expansions of its facilities in Malaysia, Thailand and China.

'''' Comments: Unlike its rivals (Notion VTec and Engtek), JCY's Thai factory was fortunate to avoid the flood and able to maintain its production at full capacity.

'''' Competitors are only expecting full capacity production to be restored earliest by the end of 1H12.

'''' We are being cautious that this solid result might not sustain in the longer term as clients turning back to their original vendors when their operations are fully restored.

'''' High ASP would not be able to sustain when competition is back in full force.

'''' Following the revision in earnings forecasts, target price has been raised to RM1.26 from RM0.79. Despite expectation of strong results ahead, it might not be sustainable given the short term boost from Thai flood. Moreover, the recent strong surge in share price would have largely factored in the phenomenon.

CIMB Research ups JCY target price to RM1.54

Stock Name: JCY
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: TRADING BUYTarget Price: 1.54

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 5): CIMB Research has raised its target price for JCY International Bhd to RM1.54 and has a trading buy on the hard disk drive maker.

It said on Thursday that JCY issued a positive profit guidance for the December quarter that was even better than its already-above-consensus estimate.

'We believe that the positive earnings momentum will continue for at least the next two to three quarters and should catalyse a rerating of the stock.

'The favourable impact of a higher ASP, better product mix and stronger US$ prompts us to revise our above-industry forecasts again for FY12-14. This raises our target price to RM1.54, still based on 6.0 times CY13 P/E. Maintain Trading Buy,' it said.

Rising on tank terminal expansion and marginal fields

Stock Name: DIALOG
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.22

To re-develop Jacob Javits Center at Queens?

Stock Name: GENM
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.30

January 4, 2012

Moving Forward...

Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: TAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.10

A Firmer Grip on Growing Brand

Stock Name: BONIA
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.25

Delivering a Potent Brew

Stock Name: OLDTOWN
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.55

Gaining small traction in China

Stock Name: PPB
Company Name: PPB GROUP BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 17.45

RHB Research maintains Underweight on semicon sector

Stock Name: MPI
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 2.10

Stock Name: UNISEM
Company Name: UNISEM (M) BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.92

Stock Name: NOTION
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 1.21

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 4): RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Underweight call on the semiconductor sector as it has yet to see any strong indications that the industry is poised for a stronger recovery.

It said on Wednesday the EU debt crisis has already taken its toll on the chips demand in the region as reflected by a sharper decline of 11.5% on-year in November (versus October: 7.7%).

'Although sales of smartphones with the latest wireless chips remained the bright spot for the industry, this was not able to offset the weak demand from the broader market.

'We believe that chip sales (especially from the US and Europe regions) will be a better indicator as to whether a sustainable recovery is in sight,' it said.

On the outlook for MPI, it said although MPI was focusing on new segments such as the automotive and mobile devices (i.e. X3-MLP and MEMS), it believes the slowing consumer spending on the broader market such as PCs and consumer electronics would have bigger knock-on effects on MPI's medium-term earnings.

'This is mainly because revenue contributions from these segments are the highest. Hence, we maintain our Underperform call on the stock and a fair value estimate of RM2.10/share based on 0.6 times forward P/BV,' it said.

RHB Research also said Unisem was not spared too despite qualifying for new customers. Unisem's earnings visibility remains poor given weak order visibility and customers' lower order rate despite commencing volume loading for newly acquired customers.

'We believe medium-term chips demand would remain uninspiring given weakness in end-market demand for consumer electronics and corporate IT equipment. Therefore, we reiterate our Underperform call and fair value estimate of RM0.92/share based on 0.6 times forward P/BV,' it said.

As for Notion Vtec, the research house said while it remains positive on Notion's camera segment on the back of rising adoption of SLR cameras amongst consumers, it is wary of its renewed focus on the HDD business.

'Recall that the company incurred substantial cost increase following its capacity ramp-up of its 2.5'' HDD in FY09/10. Furthermore, we believe demand for HDDs could be hampered in the longer term by demand for alternative storage mechanisms i.e. cloud computing and hybrid storage. Thus, we maintain our Underperform call on the stock with a fair value estimate of RM1.21/share based on 6x FY09/12 EPS,' it said.

YTL Power climbs on UBS upgrade

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Research House: UBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.90

YTL Power International Bhd, a Malaysian power producer, rose to a one-month high in Kuala Lumpur trading after the stock was upgraded to "neutral" at UBS AG.

Its shares climbed 1.1 percent to RM1.85 at 9:20 a.m local time, set for their highest close since Dec. 8.

Analyst Nicole Goh upgraded the stock with a RM1.90 price target following a 29 percent drop in its share price last year, UBS said in a report today. -- Bloomberg

Buy Bumi Armada shares, says HwangDBS

Stock Name: ARMADA
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.00

Bumi Armada is set to win big contracts from Petronas, especially floating production, storage, off-loading jobs
(FPSO)and marginal field projects, which could re-rate the stock, HwangDBS Vickers Research said today.

The research house maintained a "Buy" for Bumi Armada at RM5 target price as it expected the company to secure the lucrative risk service contracts (RSCs) for Petronas' marginal fields this year.

"It is also premised on long-term earnings visibility of RM7.2 billion firm order book (excluding a joint-venture FPSO project in India worth RM1.9 billion) and strong three-year earnings compounded annual growth rate of 26 per cent.

"Its excellent track record and synergistic oil and gas services, especially FPSO solutions, may appeal to foreign oil companies seeking to rope in a local partner for RSCs.

"We understand Bumi Armada is keen to bid for marginal fields and its new oil field services division sends a strong signal that it is leveraging on its expertise to aggressively bid for RSCs, which are believed to command 11-20 per
cent Internal Rate of Return." it said in a statement.

The research firm said FPSO tenders were picking up and Bumi Armada would bid for more FPSO contracts in Malaysia as more jobs take off.

It said the FPSO tender process for Petronas' RM15 billion North Malay Basin development had started, with the contract slated to be awarded by year-end to meet production by 2013.
Petronas is also likely to apply FPSO solutions to its "Bunga Dahlia" and "Teratai" fields, it said.

Meanwhile, the FPSO tender for the "ONGC Cluster 7" marginal fields in India has started and Bumi Armada is likely to bid for it, it added.

As at midday, Bumi Armada shares gained two sen to RM4.09. -- Bernama

Media Prima dips, Affin Research has Sell, TP RM1.68

Stock Name: MEDIA
Research House: AFFINPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 1.68

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 4): Shares of MEDIA PRIMA BHD [] were marginally lower at RM2.54 at the midday break with trading volume on the thin side while Affin Investment Bank Research was cautious on the outlook for the group.

At 12.30pm, it was down one sen to RM2.54. There were 277,200 shares traded at prices ranging from RM2.54 to RM2.55.

The FBM KLCI was up just 1.21 points to 1,514.75. Turnover was 958.42 million shares valyed at RM782.15 million. Tthe overall broader market was slightly higher with advancing stocks lead decliners 377 to 269 while 306 counters were unchanged.

Affin Research said Media Prima was trading at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 17 times (near its +1 standard deviation mean PE) but it was likely to come off, and could potentially test its -1SD historical mean PE level of 10.8 times, triggered by earnings disappointment ahead.

'Our FY12-13 EPS estimates are 10%-30% below street. Risk to our anti-consensus SELL rating lies on us being too early in our recommendation as the stock price could potentially be lifted by an election rally.

'Nevertheless, we believe that any stock price rally would optimally be the best time to trim positions in the stock ahead of a more challenging adex environment in 2012,' it said.

Affin research said Media Prima was highly leveraged to the broadcast segment which was highly vulnerable to an economic slowdown.

'Maintain our SELL rating on Media with an unchanged target price of RM1.68 based on 12x FY12 EPS,' it said.


January 3, 2012

Moving Things Around

Stock Name: MEDIA
Research House: TAPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 2.51

Bonus Issue, Free Warrants Go Ex

Stock Name: FREIGHT
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.00

Profit Goes up in Smoke

Stock Name: ADVENTA
Company Name: ADVENTA BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.00

Hong Leong keeps 'hold' call on Telekom

Stock Name: TM
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.54

Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) is maintaining a "hold" call on Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM), with an unchanged target
price of RM4.54 per share, given the recent price rally.

"The stock is likely to continue attracting investors due to its defensive nature amid strong swings in global equity markets," said HLIB in a research note today.

The research firm said the nation's largest integrated solutions provider has budgeted between RM2.7 billion and RM3 billion in capital expenditure (CAPEX) for this year as it continued to roll out high speed broadband (HSBB) access to more areas.

TM would expand its Internet access beyond homes and offices via wireless fidelity (WiFi) hotspots, HLIB said, adding that TM was also planning to widen its WiFi reach for nomadic users.

"This came as a shock to us as we expected CAPEX to be decreasing gradually as HSBB's implementation is towards completion.

"We opine that the best approach for TM will be to capture nomadic users by partnering a mobile telecommunication company, it said adding that TM should leverage on its existing collaboration with Celcom Axiata Bhd," it said. -- BERNAMA

RHB Research maintains underperform on VS Industry

Stock Name: VS
Company Name: V.S INDUSTRY BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 1.40

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 3): RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Underweight on VS Industry and its fair value estimate of RM1.40 a share based on 6.0 times CY12 remains unchanged.

It said on Tuesday the 1QFY07/12 core net profit of RM9.6 million was within expectations. The 1Q revenue increased by 7.5% on-quarter on orders from new volume sales for Itron and Epson.

However, the first quarter earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT), more than doubled on-quarter as EBIT margin expanded by 2.8 percentage points from operating leverage effects on higher utilisation rates.

'Coupled with lower share of associate losses, core net profit grew 29.1% on-quarter. Separately, VSI declared an interim single-tier DPS of 5.0 sen,' it said.

RHB Research said it believes the near-term outlook remains challenging stemming from weaker consumer spending amidst the macroeconomic headwinds.

'However, we believe the new contribution of Keurig (coffee brewers) should partly mitigate weaker sales from existing customers (i.e. NextWindow and Dyson). Furthermore, in the longer term, we believe VSI could benefit from rising demand for outsourcing manufacturing capabilities,' it said.

MIDF Research remains Neutral on banking sector

Stock Name: RHBCAP
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.20

Stock Name: AFG
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.10

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 3): MIDF Research remains Neutral on the banking sector as it expects net profit of banks next year to be moderated by slower economic growth.

The research house said on Tuesday that although the Nov 2011 statistics showed an increase in growth rate of loan applications, the stronger growth rate was attributed to the effect of a lower base of loan applications in Nov 2010 which was lower by 6.7% compared to Oct 2010.

MIDF Research said it expects banks to be prudent and conservative in terms of capital management in light of the Basel III requirements especially for requirement for potential capital buffer even though as of now, all banks appeared to be comfortable in meeting the higher capital ratio requirements of Basel III.

'Our BUY calls on RHB CAP (TP: RM9.20) and AFG (TP: RM4.10) remained unchanged as of now. We have adjusted our TP for AFG to RM4.10 from RM3.84 previously based on 1.6x PBVR on FY13 BVPS.

'We are still NEUTRAL on AMBANK (TP: RM6.03), HONG LEONG BANK (TP: RM10.50), CIMB (TP: RM7.50), MAYBANK (TP: RM8.80) and PUBLIC BANK (TP: RM13.00),' it said.