August 5, 2011

'Alliance Financial to achieve single digit growth'



OSK Research expects Alliance Financial Group Bhd (AFGB) to achieve a high single digit loans growth this year, mainly contributed by its niche Small and Medium Enterprises and consumer banking segments.

"Other income will likely be flat this quarter, due to weaker stockbroking, as its research team is still not in place," OSK Research said in a note today.

The research firm has also adjusted upward its dividend payout ratio for
AFGB's financial year 2012 to 40 per cent from 30 per cent, judging from the
higher dividend of 5.6 sen announced from the 3.3 sen forecasted in the first
quarter 2011.

"We are leaving our forecasts and fair value unchanged at RM3.80, based on
1.65 times financial year 2012 price to book value. "Nonetheless, we are downgrading AFGB to "neutral" as we deem the stock's valuation fair, and the fact that it has appreciated by 18.6 per cent since we initiated coverage with a "buy" call in May," OSK Research said. -- Bernama

HwangDBS maintains 'buy' call on Masterskill

Stock Name: MEGB
Company Name: MASTERSKILL EDUCATION GROUP
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.50



HwangDBS Vickers has maintained a "buy" call recommendation on Masterskill Education Group with a lower target price of RM2.50 from RM3.25 previously due to earnings pressure and a lower student intake.

The research house said factors such as tighter financing loan from the
National Higher Education Fund Corporation and higher nursing entry requirements had somewhat affected the number of students enrolling in the diploma programmes.

Industry statistics showed that the total intake of diploma-level students
in the health, health sciences and welfare field by private higher education
institutions last year, declined to 30,000 against 38,000 in 2009.

In comparison, the number of new students registered by MASEG was 5,500 last year versus 6,600 in 2009.

HwangDBS said to encounter the challenging environment, Masterskill, which
has more than 95 per cent of its students currently enrolled in diploma
programmes, will take several initiatives to broaden the group's earnings.

"Masterskill is expected to step up its student recruitment drives, offer
more degree programmes, branch out to provide non-healthcare related courses, collaborate with established foreign institutions and venture overseas to diversify its income streams," added HwangDBS. -- Bernama

OSK Research downgrades AFG to Neutral

Stock Name: AFG
Company Name: ALLIANCE FINANCIAL GROUP BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 3.80



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research downgraded Alliance Financial Group (AFGB) to Neutral and said the stock has come under the spotlight owing to market speculation of the potential disposal by its substantial shareholders, Temasek and Langkah Bahagia.

'Given that its share price has rallied by some 19.3% over the past 3 months and outperformed the KLCI by 17.7% - and in the process charted a historical high of RM3.75 - we think the stock's valuations are now fair.

'Downgrade to NEUTRAL with our fair value unchanged at RM3.80, based on 1.65x FY12 PBV (13.1% ROE, 9.5% COE and 4% growth rate),' it said in a note Friday, Aug 5.

OSK Research upgrades GAB to Buy, raises TP to RM13.58

Stock Name: GAB
Company Name: GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 13.58



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research has upgraded GUINNESS ANCHOR BHD [] to a Buy with higher target price of RM13.58 (from RM10.18) and said the company's FY11 earnings of RM181 million (+19% y-o-y) came in above expectations by 9%.

For the 4Q period, the lower margins and earnings contraction were due to some provisions for market restructuring, the research house said in a note Aug 5.

'Moving forward, we expect GAB to register positive volume growth with the Euro 2012 as a kicker for next year's beer consumption.

'We do not expect an excise duty hike in the upcoming budget. A final DPS of 44 sen was declared. We raise our FY12-13 earnings by 19-27% and upgrade GAB to BUY based on our remodeled FCFF valuation," it said.

UOB Kay Hian sees stronger newsflow for MMHE by year-end

Stock Name: MHB
Company Name: MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENG
Research House: UOBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.60



KUALA LUMPUR: UOB Kay Hian Malaysia research expects stronger newsflow for Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MMHE) towards year-end.

It said on Friday, Aug 5 this would occur after the Gumusut's floating production system (FPS) superlift exercise and the completion of the yard acquisition.

'MMHE remains the only Malaysian major oil & gas fabrication player who has yet to announce a major contract win in this upcycle. Capacity constraint has prevented it from taking on more projects, which will no longer be an issue once the Gumusut FPS is delivered and the yard acquisition is concluded,' it said.

UOB Kay Hian research lowered its target price from RM8.80 to RM8.60. This was a 12.4% upside from Thursday's closing price of RM7.65.

It said MMHE's share price has retreated 13% from its recent high. The recent sell-down was unwarranted. Crude oil prices (Brent) being the single most important determinant to the sector's valuation is still holding steadily at around US$110/barrel.

'MMHE could re-rate upwards once its capacity constraint issue is resolved, enabling it to take on new contracts,' it said.

The superlift of its Gumusut FPS topside on to its hull by end-August is expected to relieve the currently tight yard space faced by MMHE. The FPS alone takes about 50%-60% of its yard space, and the lifting of the topside will reduce the space occupied by the FPS by half.

Measured in deadweight tonnage, the Gumusut FPS has taken up more than 54% of MMHE's tonnage capacity. The Gumusut FPS is expected to be delivered in 2Q12.

UOB Kay Hian research said there were no red flags thus far that could derail the Pasir Gudang yard acquisition. Due diligence carried out for Sime Darby's Pasir Gudang yard has been extended for another month and this may have caused some concerns, causing share price to fall from its recent high.

A decision on the acquisition will be made in September. The acquisition of Sime Darby yard is important as it could allow MMHE to increase its capacity by 46%.

Earnings in the next quarter will come in largely in line without any positive surprises. The only major contract secured by MMHE in 2Q11 was the Floating Storage Unit (FSU) conversion contract from its parent MISC valued at around RM100 million.

Kenanga maintains 'buy' call on Kelington

Stock Name: KGB
Company Name: KELINGTON GROUP BERHAD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.04



Kenanga Research has maintained its "buy" call recommendation on Kelington Group Bhd (KGB) with an unchanged target price of RM1.04 based on its first half 2011 results which came in within expectations.

"The results were within our expectation at 43 per cent of our full-year
forecast on the back of seasonally lower revenue recognition," Kenanga said in a statement today.

"We expect KGB to achieve our RM95 million estimate as the year-to-date
order book stands at RM122 million.

"The results saw some earnings compression in its profit margin from 10 per
cent to seven per cent due to stiff competition in the China and Taiwan
markets," it added.

It said the counter is still undervalued, attributable to its unique
business.

"We have fine tuned our financial year 2011 forecast by 15 per cent as we
tweak our order book assumptions and timing of the recognition, while
introducing our financial year 2012 earnings forecast at RM9.7 million," it
said.

KGB is an integrated provider of ultra high purity gas delivery systems,
managing projects in the wafer, solar and light-emitting diode or liquid
crystal display sectors in Malaysia, China and India. -- Bernama

August 4, 2011

MBSB extends gains, RHB Research ups TP

Stock Name: MBSB
Company Name: MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.60



KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD [] (MBSB) continued its uptrend on Thursday, Aug 4 after the stock was upgraded by RHB Research Institute following a strong set of earnings, underpinned by a strong outlook.

At 9.15am, MBSB was up seven sen to RM1.75 with 3.71 million shares traded.

RHB Research maintained its Outperform call on the stock and lifted its fair value for MBSB to RM2.60 from RM2.06, based on unchanged 11x target 2012 PER.

'We have raised our FY11-13 EPS projections by 23.7%/25.1%/28.3% respectively, mainly after raising our net interest margin projections, partly offset by downward revisions to our non-interest income forecasts.

'Our FY11-13 net DPS projections have been raised by 25-30.8%, based on unchanged payout ratio of 30%,' RHB Research said.

MBSB announced on Tuesday its net profit for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011 jumped 58% to RM78.25 million from RM49.51 million a year earlier, due to higher income from Islamic banking operations and conventional business net interest income, lower other operating expenses and lower impairment allowances on loans.

AmResearch keeps 'hold' call on Telekom

Stock Name: TM
Company Name: TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.00



AmResearch Sdn Bhd believes the one-year partnership between Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) and Google Inc will serve as a promotional tool for TM to offer online marketing solutions to small-and-medium enterprise (SME) customers.

With the collaboration, selected TM SME customers will be offered Google AdWords marketing coupons, worth RM150-RM500, to advertise on the Google Adwords advertising platform.

"As this is only a one-year commitment, we don''t believe it will have a long-term impact. TM still has the financial capacity to finance its capital commitments and business-as-usual activities," AmResearch said in a statement today.

Moreover, TM is not expected to generate revenue from this venture which would not involve significant cost, it said.
However, TM, vie the tie-up, will attract more in the SME sector to sign up for its "Office in a Box" and "UniFi" packages.

"Currently, UniFi has attracted about 75,000 subscribers, even without this latest promotion. At this rate, we believe it may well achieve 100,000 sign-ups by the end of the year as this new venture would enhance the take-up rate further," it added.

AmResearch maintained a "hold" call on TM for its unique buffer dividend policy of 20 sen per share with a fair value of RM4.00.
-- Bernama

SapuraCrest gets fresh RM775m job from Gorgon

Stock Name: SAPCRES
Company Name: SAPURACREST PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.44



SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd
(Aug 3, RM4.47)
Maintain buy at RM4.47 with fair value of RM5.44: We reiterate our 'buy' call on SapuraCrest Petroleum (SapCrest) with an unchanged fair value of RM5.44 based on an unchanged CY12F price-earnings ratio (PER) of 22 times for the group's merged earnings with Kencana Petroleum Bhd.

The Edge Financial Daily reported that SapCrest's 50%-owned SapuraAcergy, which owns the derrick-pipelay vessel Sapura3000, could secure up to US$260 million (RM774.8 million) contracts for the Gorgon natural gas project, off Western Australia.

Subsea7, which was formed from the merger of Acergy SA and Subsea 7 Inc, has recently secured a US$440 million construction contract from Chevron, the operator of the Gorgon project. Subsea 7 said it will use Sapura3000 for this project commencing in 2013. Sapura3000 is expected to secure almost 60% of Subsea7's Gorgon contract value.

The construction contract includes installation and tie-in of heavy lift structures in the Gorgon and Jansz fields, which are located 65km and 130km from Barrow Island, off the northwest coast of Western Australia. The project will reach undersea depths of 1,350m.

This contract could raise SapCrest's current gross order book of RM8.6 billion by 9% to RM9.3 billion or a net order book of RM7.2 billion ' 1.7 times FY12F revenue. But we maintain FY14F earnings as our assumptions already incorporate fresh orders of RM2 billion annually.

Recall that Kencana Petroleum and SapCrest have announced a merger proposal that will create a regional integrated service provider for the upstream oil and gas (O&G) sector. The proposal involves an offer by Integral Key Sdn Bhd ' a special purpose vehicle wholly owned by Mayban Ventures Sdn Bhd ' to acquire SapCrest's entire business at RM4.60 per share comprising 85% in new Integral shares (RM3.91 per share) and 15% cash (69 sen per share).

While the capital distribution to the shareholders of SapCrest and Kencana could result in a merged net gearing of up to 0.3 times (higher than our earlier estimated 0.2 times as only one of the merged companies may be accounted as an acquisition), we remain positive on the synergistic benefits of this vertical integration of the two leading domestic O&G players and a potential new member of the FBM KLCI.

The stock currently trades at an attractive CY11F PER of only 17 times against over 20 times for Dialog Group Bhd, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd and Kencana Petroleum. ' AmResearch, Aug 3


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 4, 2011.

OSK Research maintains Buy on MBSB

Stock Name: MSM
Company Name: MSM MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.35



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD [] (MBSB) with a fair value of RM2.35.

It said on Thursday, Aug 4 this was based on a 2.6 times FY11 price-to-book value (22.8% returns on equity, 11% cost of equity and 4% growth rate).

It said MBSB held an analyst briefing on Wednesday following the release of its 1HFY11 results.

'Management is confident that it would be able to maintain its earnings momentum going forward. Besides focusing on personal financing, the company will also try to capture the corporate segment by launching more new products.

'In order to expand its branch network, there are plans for three new branches and five new representative offices,' it said.

CIMB Research has Neutral call on MSM

Stock Name: MSM
Company Name: MSM MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.50



KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has initiated coverage of MSM Holdings Bhd'' with a NEUTRAL call and a target price of RM5.50, which is based on 13 times forward P/E or a 10% discount to its target market P/E of 14.5 times.

It said on Thursday, Aug 4 the dividend yield of 5.5% will provide share price support.

MSM Holdings is currently in a sweet spot, thanks to its 57% share of Malaysia's refined sugar market. Current-year earnings growth prospects are also favourable, aided by a strong ringgit and higher selling prices.

'But these pluses are offset by uncertain raw sugar costs in 2012, slower demand growth as well as rising competition and fuel costs,' it said.

Genting Plantations: Expect strong 2Q11 results

Stock Name: GENP
Company Name: GENTING PLANTATIONS BERHAD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.10



Genting Plantations Bhd
(Aug 4, RM7.83)
Maintain buy at RM7.81 with revised target price of RM10.10 (from RM10.65): Based on its filings with Bursa Malaysia, Genting Plantations' fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output surged 38% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 27% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q11 because of a small 1Q11 base and seasonally higher yields.

Coupled with resilient CPO prices that averaged RM3,349 per tonne in 2QFY11 (-8% q-o-q, +32% y-o-y), we expect 2Q11 earnings to surge 21% q-o-q (minimal contribution from property). We understand the plantations expanded by 1,500ha in 1H11, slightly behind our forecast based on annualised data.

After imputing slightly lower crude palm oil (CPO) price forecasts on stronger ringgit expectations, we adjusted FY11 to FY13F earnings by between -1.3% and +1.7%. Our sum-of-parts (SOP) derived target price is nudged down 5% to RM10.10 after imputing higher capital expenditure due to a larger-than-expected increase in new planting costs.

We continue to expect lower CPO prices in 4QCY11 on yield recovery and new maturities.

Genting Plantations' Johor Premium Outlet is on track for grand opening in November 2011. The company still has 2,225ha of landbank in Kulai, Johor, the development of which should offer significant upside potential going forward. The realisation of this would be an additional catalyst for the stock, as every RM1 psf increase (from our RM10 psf base assumption) would raise our SOP-derived target price by 1.9% (40% discount to revised net asset value), based on our sensitivity analysis.

We expect Genting Plantations' Indonesia FFB output to start to contribute meaningfully next year, following the completion of its first mill there. Its own FFB output is projected to rise by 9% compound annual growth rate up to FY13, premised on a decent increase in maturing estate area in Indonesia. ' HwangDBS Vickers Research, Aug


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 5, 2011.

Bonia's 4QFY11 profit hit by RM5.4m provision

Stock Name: BONIA
Company Name: BONIA CORPORATION BHD
Research House: AFFINPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.45



Bonia Corp Bhd
(Aug 4, RM1.69)
Maintain buy at RM1.74 with target price of RM2.45: Bonia announced via Bursa Malaysia on Wednesday that its 60%-owned subsidiaries, Apex Marble Sdn Bhd and Mcore Sdn Bhd, filed a civil suit in the High Court against Leong Tat Yan for alleged breaches of contract and fiduciary duties in connection with a joint venture in Vietnam. Recall that in 2002, Bonia entered into a JV agreement with Leong Tat Yan for the sale of Bonia's products in Vietnam. However, Bonia claims that Leong has breached the terms of the agreements by failing to furnish the required financial records, sales proceeds as well as access to stock information. Via its subsidiaries, Bonia is seeking a total of RM3.2 million from Leong (who owns 40% of Apex and Mcore).

The civil suit is not expected to have an operational impact on Bonia. We note that the Vietnam business is a relatively small contributor to total sales, compared with Malaysia and Singapore, which make up 75% and 17% of sales. The remaining 8% consists of sales contribution from various countries, including Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, China and Indonesia.

According to the statement, the losses arising from the JV business amounting to RM5.4 million will be provided for in the upcoming 4QFY11 ended June results. Thus, we lower our FY11 headline net profit forecast by 12.5% to RM37.7 million. Our FY11 core net profit forecast, however, remains unchanged at RM43.1 million.

We maintain our 'buy' recommendation, with an unchanged target price of RM2.45, pegged to a price-earnings ratio of 10 times on CY12 earnings per share. Bonia will release its full-year FY11 results in the last week of August. We expect earnings to be supported by its 2010 acquisition of the Singapore-based Jeco Group, which provides a broader customer base and a larger market for luxury brands. Key risks to the stock are reduced disposable income from: (i) higher food inflation, in tandem with rising global food prices, and; (ii) the government's agenda in rolling back subsidies. ' Affin IB Research, Aug 4


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 5, 2011.

Domestic dilemmas to drag YTLP's dividends

Stock Name: YTLPOWR
Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.10



YTL Power International Bhd
(Aug 4, RM1.97)
Downgrade to hold at RM1.98 with revised target price of RM2.10 (from RM2.51): YTL Power International (YTLP) is likely to see better-than-expected 4QFY11 results on reduced fuel cost at Power Seraya. But, with dividends curtailed by its Indonesian expansion plans, widening losses at YES and potential reduction in tariffs at the Paka & Pasir Gudang IPP, its appeal as a high dividend yielding stock is waning.

Its 9MFY11 pre-tax profit surged 43% year-on-year (y-o-y) while revenue grew by 13% y-o-y. We understand'' the 800mw co-generation unit installed in July 2010 reduced average fuel cost per kWh by 3% to 4%. We do not discount that Power Seraya's sterling results will continue into 4QFY11 lifting YTLP's FY11 net profit above our RM1 billion estimate. Power Seraya contributed 54% to YTLP's 9MFY11 pre-tax profit.

The RM681 million cash raised from the 15% stake sale in PT Jawa Power will likely go towards bidding for a 1,000mw coal-fired IPP in Indonesia. Also, YES is recording average revenue per user of only RM30 against our FY12 assumption of RM49. With a RM500 million cost base for YES, YTLP is likely to conserve cash.

The government's recently set-up MyPower Corp to review power purchase agreements indicates it is serious about reducing IPP tariffs. We estimate that Paka & Pasir Gudang IPPs generate RM400 million in free cash flows (FCF) per year and contribute half of YTLP's dividends. With this under threat, YTLP is again likely to conserve cash.

We maintain our earnings estimates pending 4QFY11 results but slash our yearly dividend per share (DPS) forecast from 13.1 sen to 9.4 sen.

In rolling forward our discounted cash flow based target price to end-FY12, we now assume a lower 1.3 times regulated capital value (RCV) for Wessex Water (1.5 times previously), the multiple that Li Ka-Shing paid for Northumbrian Water last month. Ascribing a 10% discount for uncertainties surrounding YES' earnings outlook and the Malaysian IPPs, our target price is reduced from RM2.51 to RM2.10. ' Maybank IB Research, Aug 4


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 5, 2011.

2Q/FY11 results. 1H slightly below expectations. Maintain Buy Call.

Stock Name: ECS
Company Name: ECS ICT BERHAD
Research House: MERCURYPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.59



August 3, 2011

2Q/FY11 results. Above all expectations. Maintain Buy Call.

Stock Name: MBSB
Company Name: MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD
Research House: MERCURYPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.08



CBIP wins new RM171m government contract

Stock Name: CBIP
Company Name: CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.75



CB Industrial Product Holding
(Aug 3, RM4.12)
Maintain buy at RM4.16 with target price of RM4.75: CBIP unit AVP Engineering (M) Sdn Bhd, has clinched a RM171 million government contract to supply and instal 100 fire and rescue transport vehicles to the Fire and Rescue Department. We estimate the contract will lift our 2011 to 2013 net profit forecasts by 3% to 8%, with a potential 14 sen upside (+3%) to our target price. Our earnings forecasts are maintained for now pending further updates on CBIP's recent proposals to dispose of estates. Maintain 'buy' with an unchanged target price of RM4.75 (seven times 2011 price-earnings ratio [PER]).

Assuming a typical 10% net margin based on its previous retrofitting jobs, we estimate the contract will provide a net profit enhancement of 3% in 2011 and 8% in 2012/13, given that billings will be recognised progressively over the next 30 months.

AVP Engineering has been involved in retrofitting ambulances and fire engines for the past five years. Its strong track record has equipped it to clinch bigger contracts, as seen by the recent announcements of significant contracts. In April, AVP won a RM38 million contract to supply ambulances.

We expect CBIP to secure more Modipalm orders in 2H11. CBIP has secured RM79 million year-to-date and is on track to meet our full-year wins of RM180 million.

We see a re-rating catalyst from its recent landbank unlocking exercise. Recall that in June CBIP proposed to dispose of its below-average yielding plantations, raising RM1.95 per share (RM268 million) in cash and making RM1.02 per share (RM141 million) in disposal gains. Post-disposal, CBIP is looking for expansion opportunities, failing which it may return part of its cash as special dividends to shareholders. We maintain our earnings forecasts and target price of RM4.75 based on seven times 2011 PER for now. ' Maybank IB Research, Aug 3


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 4, 2011.

Mah Sing on target for RM2b sales in 2011

Stock Name: MAHSING
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: UOBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.44



Mah Sing Group Bhd
(Aug 3, RM2.44)
Downgrade to hold at RM2.44 with revised target price of RM2.44 (from RM2.51): We gather that the authorities have consulted with Mah Sing's management on property sector policies and understand the company's outlook on tightening measures in the property sector concurs with ours, that harsh tightening measures are unwarranted at this juncture and unlikely to materalise this year. This is premised on the absence of a widespread property bubble and given that banks have been cautious in loan approvals. Any tightening measures are likely to be limited to soft measures and only implemented in 2012.

On Tuesday, Mah Sing announced a joint venture agreement with Asie Sdn Bhd (60:40) for the joint development of 4.08 acres along the Jalan Tun Razak-Jalan Pahang area (gross development value [GDV] RM900 million). The total implied consideration is RM106.6 million implying RM600 psf. This is is considered costly against S P Setia's Sky Residences cost of RM300 psf in 2007. This is the first JV development for the 58 acres of urban regeneration, the largest privatised urban regeneration project in Kuala Lumpur (GDV: RM9 billion). M Sentral will comprise smaller and more affordable serviced residences. The piece of land is immediately available for development and is within walking distance of the Titiwangsa Star-LRT interchange station.

Mah Sing has already chalked up RM1.24 billion worth of sales, against its RM2 billion year-end sales target. It has another RM500 million in sales bookings, which will be converted once the sales and purchase agreements (S&Ps) are signed. Unbilled sales stand at RM1.6 billion. We gather that the management will be diverting its focus to mass market products and therefore expect sizeable land acquisitions in the coming six months.

We downgrade the stock to 'hold' with a revised target price of RM2.51. While sales momentum appears intact and on track to meet its ambitious targets, the stock appears fairly valued at this point in view of its share price outperformance (+36% year-to-date). The downgrade also reflects our view that the broader industry valuation cycle could have peaked. Our revised RM2.51 target price is based on a 10% discount to realisable net asset value (previously RM2.59 based on 9.7 times 2012 priec-earnings ratio), and implies a 2012 PER of 12.1 times, 32% above its historical mean of 9.2 times.

In the coming six months, we expect more land acquisitions, probably still in the Klang Valley and in the region of 200 to 300 acres. We suspect Mah Sing is aiming for larger acreage for township development, which includes affordable mass market products. Currently, Mah Sing has about 900 acres of undeveloped land with an estimated GDV of RM12.4 billion.

We note that the share prices of property companies react positively to lower debt levels, particularly in an uncertain macroeconomic outlook. Mah Sing turned from a net cash position in 2009 to 0.22 times net gearing in 2010 and subsequently geared up further to 0.32 times as at 1Q11. This is likely to rise to 0.4 to 0.5 times by end-2011 as the group plans to acquire sizeable land for affordable mass market products. This raises concerns of a longer-term burden as township developments usually require longer gestation periods. Effective infrastructure needs to be set up before attracting mass population, and this could result in slower sales in the initial phases of development. Recall that S P Setia kept its net gearing below 0.3 times since 2006 and turned net cash recently, largely aided by the recent two-year property boom.

At RM2.44, Mah Sing is trading at 14.7 times 2011 PER and 12.1 time 2012 PER ' above its historical mean of 9.2 times and +1 standard deviation mean of 13.2 times. While we are positive that it will achieve its end-2011 RM2 billion sales target, upside could be limited from a valuation stand point as take-up rates may decelerate on the back of higher property prices against two years ago.

We have adjusted our 2011/12 net earnings upwards by 6% and 15% and introduce FY13 earnings, after factoring in Mah Sing's latest project status including the latest M Sentral. Our forecast is relatively conservative compared with consensus estimates.

The key risk to our forecasts is the timing of project launches and take-up rates. A share price catalyst'' would be better than expected take-up rates for upcoming projects. ' UOBKayHian, Aug 3


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 4, 2011.

Starts small, aims big

Stock Name: MAHSING
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.16



SapuraCrest orderbook to rise to RM9.3b

Stock Name: SAPCRES
Company Name: SAPURACREST PETROLEUM BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.44



SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd's current gross order book is expected to rise by nine per cent to RM9.3 billion following the award of a contract in Gorgon natural gas project, off Western Australia, by Subsea 7 SA.

In a report today, AmResearch said Subsea 7, which recently secured a US$440
million (US$1=RM2.97) construction contract in the area, planned to use the
derrick-pipelay vessel, Sapura3000, owned by SapuraAcergy SA, a 50-per cent
subsidiary of SapuraCrest, in 2013.

"Sapura3000 is expected to secure almost 60 per cent of Subsea 7's Gorgon
contract value," it said.

The research firm has reiterated its 'buy' call on SapuraCrest with an
unchanged fair value of RM5.44. -- Bernama

OSK keeps 'buy' call on Mah Sing

Stock Name: MAHSING
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.01



OSK Research is positive on the joint venture agreement between Mah Sing Group Bhd's wholly-owned unit, Grand Pavilion Development Sdn Bhd and Asie Sdn Bhd and its subsidiary, Usaha Nusantara Sdn Bhd.

In a statement today, OSK said the agreement was for the proposed joint development of prime leasehold land along Jalan Tun Razak here, measuring approximately 1.65 hectares.

"The agreement will enable Mah Sing to replenish its landbank and project pipeline as well as gain access to sizeable prime landbank in the Klang Valley,"it said.

OSK said under the agreement, Grand Pavillion also intended to undertake a niche development, M Sentral, comprising flexible-sized and more affordable serviced residences with an estimated gross development value of RM900 million.

"We think it is fair deal, considering the current market value of land in the surrounding area, as well as its strategic and prime location," it said.

It said the proposed development was expected to commence by first half 2012 and would take five years.

Under the agreement, Usaha Nusantara would grant Grand Pavilion the sole and absolute right to undertake the development of the land for RM106.6 million, to be settled 60 per cent in cash and 40 per cent by way of issuance of shares in Grand Pavillion

OSK has maintained its forecast and 'buy' recommendation on Mah Sing with an unchanged fair value of RM3.01. -- Bernama

OSK Research maintains Buy on MBSB

Stock Name: MBSB
Company Name: MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.35



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Buy call on Malaysia Building Society (MBSB) at RM1.56, with a fair value of RM2.35.

It said on Wednesday MBSB's annualised earnings came in largely in line with its full-year forecast but 12.2% above consensus forecast.

Net profit surged by 58% on-year, mainly attributed by stronger Islamic banking income and other income.

A 5.0 sen interim gross dividend was declared this quarter.

'Maintain BUY with FV of RM2.35 based on 2.6x FY11 PBV (22.8% ROE, 11% COE and 4% growth rate),' it said.

August 2, 2011

EPIC: Still on track, dependably steady

Stock Name: EPIC
Company Name: EASTERN PACIFIC IND. CORP
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.70



Eastern Pacific Industrial Corp Bhd
(Aug 1, RM2.95)
Maintain hold at RM2.80 with revised target price of RM2.70 (from RM2.55): EPIC's 1H11 results, expected to be released in mid-August, are projected to be stronger year-on-year (y-o-y) with earnings growth of 10% to 12%. A five sen interim dividend (+100% y-o-y) could be declared as we estimate EPIC has about RM100 million cash on its balance sheet (60 sen per share) and should enjoy solid cash flows. We maintain our 'hold' call but nudge up our target price to RM2.70 (+6%) as we roll forward our valuation basis to 2012 with an unchanged eight times price-earnings ratio (PER).

We forecast EPIC's 2Q11 net profit to be in the range of RM16 million to RM17 million (+47% to 56% quarter-on-quarter), on stronger top line growth (+14% to 15% q-o-q) and pretax margins (+8 to 9 percentage points q-o-q). This would take 1H11 earnings to RM27 million to RM28 million (+10% to 14% y-o-y) in-line with our full-year forecast of RM55 million. The strong q-o-q earnings growth was accentuated by a weaker 1Q. We also understand EPIC continues to benefit from stronger oil and gas (O&G) activities at its petroleum supply base (KSB) and fabrication outfit (Mushtari).

EPIC's share price surged 12% after Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd (AZRB) announced the completion of its 21.6% stake sale in EPIC to Lembaga Tabung Amanah Warisan Negeri Terengganu (LTAWNT) on June 10. Although cash payment of RM111.5 million or RM3.10 per share has been made, the share transfer has not been effected, reviving speculation of a mandatory general offer (MGO) to be triggered at RM3.10, upon the eventual transfer. LTAWNT is a unit of Terengganu Inc, an existing 40% shareholder of EPIC.

Under the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007 (S.219) and Take-overs Code 2010 (PN15.2), the Securities Commission may grant an exemption from a MGO if an application is submitted before a transfer is executed. We do not think it unreasonable to believe that the 8.5 month wait since the stake sale was announced on Nov 8, 2010 could be to facilitate such an application for exemption. We understand that during the 2009 takeover, TI had obtained a waiver from the SC.

EPIC's prospective PER and price-to-book valuations of 8.2 times and 1.1 times FY12 still leave EPIC the cheapest O&G stock in our coverage universe. However, its long-term prospects remain clouded, in our view, by the Tanjong Agas operations in Pahang, which could cannibalise its activities in 2014/15. On that uncertainty, EPIC's valuations are fair. ' Maybank IB Research, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

Strong Earnings Momentum

Stock Name: AMEDIA
Company Name: ASIA MEDIA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: TAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.45



2Q/FY 11 results. Within expectations. Maintain Hold Call.

Stock Name: FURNWEB
Company Name: FURNIWEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Research House: MERCURYPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.40



OSK Research keeps Buy on Axiata, TP RM5.77

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.77



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research said Axiata Group Bhd's 19.1% associate in India, Idea Cellular reported strong 7% on-quarter(+24% on-year) and 12% on-quarter (+36% on-year) rise in revenue and EBITDA to Indian rupees 45.2 billion and 12 billion rupees respectively for 1QFY12.

The research house said on Tuesday, Aug 2 that despite the strong growth in revenue and EBITDA, Idea's 1QFY12 earnings were crimped by maiden 3G amortization and interest costs totaling 1.88 billion rupees as it launched 3G during the quarter.

OSK Research said this led to a 35% on-quarter (-12% on-year) decline in reported profit. Stripping-out the 3G related costs, Axiata would have reported a 13% on-quarter (54% on-year) increase in earnings.

'We are keeping our BUY recommendation on Axiata based on SOP target price of RM5.77.

'We view positively the recent spate of tariff hikes in India as it should mitigate pressure on EBITDA margins and contribute towards stronger revenue growth going forward on the back of the sustained increase in call traffic. Idea contributes less than 10% of Axiata's net profit and only 4% of our SOP on the group,' it said.

OSK Research ups MRCB FV to RM3.13

Stock Name: MRCB
Company Name: MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.13



KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is maintaining its Trading Buy on MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP []oration Bhd (MRCB) but raised its fair value from RM2.58 to RM3.13 after making major adjustments to its sum-of-part revised net asset value (RNAV) valuation.

It said on Tuesday, Aug 2 its recent meeting with MRCB's management reinforced its positive view on the company's bright earnings prospects and positive news flow.

'While we maintain our FY11 numbers, we have raised our revenue and earnings forecasts for FY12 by 10% and 14% respectively after taking into account higher property development revenue,' it said.

Unisem stuck in a rut in 2QFY11

Stock Name: UNISEM
Company Name: UNISEM (M) BHD
Research House: UOBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 1.12



Unisem (M) Bhd
(Aug 2, RM1.43)
Maintain sell at RM1.40 with target price of RM1.12 from 99 sen: Weak top line growth has continued to suppress earnings. Despite registering a respectable 5% growth quarter-on-quarter, Unisem's sales are still 7% lower than 2HFY10's earnings.

Unisem as a back-end test and assembly manufacturer receives orders from major US and Europe semiconductor players. Softening demand for back-end manufacturing has pushed average utilisation rates down to 60% from 65% a quarter ago. At 60%, the current utilisation rate is at its lowest point since 2QFY09. High depreciation charges are chipping away at profit after last year's investment in Chengdu, China, and new machines. Depreciation charges in this quarter are triple its net profit.

Total capital expenditure for 2HFY11 of RM42.9 million is only 60% of last year's capex. Lower capex suggests that Unisem's 2011/12 sales growth will not be able to compete with that of 2010. Lower investments will accelerate average selling price (ASP) erosion.

The management is still very bullish on China, and is looking to grow and expand Unisem Chengdu by another 30% to 40%. Unisem Chengdu now contributes more than 50% of Unisem's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda). A lower effective tax rate (6%), also implies that Unisem's Chengdu operation is becoming increasingly important for the group.

Japan's semiconductor supply chain has recovered since the earthquake according to Unisem's management and is unlikely to have a significant impact on its business.

We have kept our FY11 full-year earnings forecast of RM83.4 million unchanged, which is also in line with the management's targeted FY11 RM250 million Ebitda. We lower our FY12 and FY13 net earnings forecasts by 17% and 8% on the back of toned-down capital expenditure (which accelerates ASP erosions and margin compression) and lower US dollar assumptions. We are forecasting margins will revert to historical mean levels in FY12.

The management expects 2QFY11's lacklustre performance to stretch into 3QFY11.

We increase our fair value from 99 sen to RM1.12, based on eight times price-earnings ratio, to Unisems's average FY11/FY12 earnings per share. Our previous fair value was based on FY11 trough earnings. Our assessments seem to indicate that the current down cycle will not be as severe as 2009. For this reason, it is unlikely like that Unisem will trade at trough valuations. Our fair value of RM1.12 implies a target price-to-book value of 0.7 times. There is still a significant downside (20%) to the current price. Unisem remains a 'sell'. ' UOBKayHian, Aug 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 3, 2011.

KPJ's expansion plans on course

Stock Name: KPJ
Company Name: KPJ HEALTHCARE BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.30



KPJ Healthcare Bhd
(Aug 2, RM4.64)
Maintain outperform at RM4.63 with revised fair value of RM5.30 (from RM5.62): KPJ plans to develop its existing network of hospitals into sub-specialist hospitals (or centres of excellence) which will be equipped with specialised equipment and house medical specialists. We view this positively as KPJ will only need to equip the identified hospitals with the required medical equipment/facilities.

New hospitals in the pipeline include a 200-bed hospital in Bandar Baru Klang, Selangor, the 250-bed new Sabah Medical Centre, a 120-bed hospital in Muar and a 120-bed hospital in Pasir Gudang, Johor, a 200-bed hospital in Tanjung Lumpur, Pahang, and the KPJ Perlis Specialist Hospital.

The National Health Insurance Scheme is not expected to have a significant impact on KPJ. Longer-term growth will be driven by the opening or acquisition of new hospitals and government initiatives in growing healthcare tourism.

KPJ REIT complements KPJ's growth plans. Having completed three tranches of asset injection into KPJ REIT, the company's fourth asset injection is on course. We are positive on KPJ's growth strategies, as we believe the asset injection strategy will support the company's expansion plans.

We have tweaked our FY11 to FY13 earnings forecasts to adjust for: (i) changes in revenue mix assumptions to account for a higher number of in patients; and (ii) increase in our depreciation assumptions of 37.1% to 64.4% for FY11 to FY13 for the construction of new hospitals. All in, our earnings forecasts are reduced by 5.6% to 10.4% per year for FY11 to FY13.

The risks include lower than expected patient numbers if there is slower than expected economic recovery or a serious disease outbreak (such as SARS or swine flu) in Malaysia. A slower than expected turnaround in loss-making hospitals would also be a drag on earnings growth.

Given our lowered earnings forecasts, our fair value is reduced to RM5.30 (from RM5.62 previously) based on an unchanged target FY12 price-earnings ratio of 19 times, after imputing a 10% discount to the regional peers' average of 21.5 times. Moving forward, however, we believe the stock is still attractive amid the current market volatility given the defensive qualities of the healthcare industry as well as the decent dividend yields. We therefore reiterate our 'outperform' call on the stock. ' RHB Research, Aug 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 3, 2011.

Sarawak Oil Palms: Young and attractive

Stock Name: SOP
Company Name: SARAWAK OIL PALMS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.80



Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd
(Aug 2, RM4.42)
Initiating coverage at RM4.34 with buy call and target price of RM6.80: Sarawak Oil Palms' (SOP) figures will make heads turn. SOP is Malaysia's seventh largest listed plantation company by planted area with 58,940ha of oil palm estates. With 42.5% of its estates still immature, SOP offers a robust 16% three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production and 21% three-year earnings per share CAGR, and yet trades at 8.3 times 2012 price-earnings ratio (PER). Its enterprise value (EV) per planted ha of RM32,912 is the lowest among our universe of coverage. We initiate coverage with a 'buy' and RM6.80 target price, based on 13 times forward PER (at implied EV per ha of RM51,000).

The average age of SOP's oil palm trees is 7.5 years. As FFB production peaks at around 10 to 12 years, SOP promises exponential FFB production CAGR of 16% over the next three years (or 58% in three years) to bring total FFB production to 1.06 million tonnes. And, assuming SOP continues its new planting of 3,000 to 5,000 ha per year, it can sustain double digit CAGR in FFB output till 2020. Internally, SOP plans to continue its aggressive landbanking strategy.

Despite a young profile with FFB yield at 20 tonnes per ha per year (which commensurates its age profile), SOP achieves a low all-in cost of production of RM1,119 per tonne (2010), which is equivalent if not better than producers that have currently hit peak production cycle. As the trees mature and yields improve, we believe its estates can bring down its cost of production further to be on par with efficient players like IOI Corp Bhd ('hold', target price RM5.50), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd ('buy', TP RM23.25) and Genting Plantations Bhd ('hold', TP RM8.60).

SOP enjoys home ground advantage in securing more plantation land in Sarawak. The state has another one million ha earmarked for development. Besides its upstream opportunity, SOP is presently constructing 450,000 tonnes per year of refinery capacity in Bintulu. Backed by its current net cash position of RM102 million (March 2011), and comfortable net debt-to-equity ratio of one times, this gives SOP a potential war chest of RM1.3 billion to realise its short to medium term strategies. ' Maybank IB Research, Aug 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 3, 2011.

August 1, 2011

EPIC up on stronger earnings projection

Stock Name: EPIC
Company Name: EASTERN PACIFIC IND. CORP
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.70



KUALA LUMPUR: Eastern Pacific Industrial Corp Bhd shares rose in early trade on Monday, August 1 after Maybank IB Research said the company's results, expected to be released in mid August, were projected to be stronger year-on-year (y-o-y) with earnings growth of 10-12%.

At 9.20am, EPIC rose five sen to RM2.85 with 64,000 shares traded.

Maybank IB said in a note August 1 that a 5 sen interim dividend (+100% y-o-y) could be declared as it estimated that EPIC has about RM100 million cash on its balance sheet (60 sen per share) and should enjoy solid cash-flows going forward.

'We maintain our Hold call but nudge up our TP to RM2.70 (+6%) as we roll forward our valuation basis to 2012 with an unchanged 8x PE multiple,' it said.

Kinsteel advances after OSK Research upgrade to Trading Buy, raised TP of 82c

Stock Name: KINSTEL
Company Name: KINSTEEL BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: TRADING BUYTarget Price: 0.82



KUALA LUMPUR: KINSTEEL BHD [] shares rose on Monday, Aug after OSK Research said that the time had come to rerate the stock as its income stream was expected to improve via upstream operation in the form of 37% owned Perwaja.

At 9.45am, Kinsteel was up three sen to 72.5 sen with 810,000 shares traded.

OSK Research in a note Aug 1 said that aside from the progress towards the commissioning of Perwaja's concentration and pelletisation plant in 1HFY12 which may potentially contribute to savings of USD50 per tonne of iron ore pellet, it was also excited over the Terengganu state government's readiness to consent to Perwaja's application to mine iron ore in Bukit Besi, Terengganu.

As iron ore fine currently costs over USD160 per tonne free-on-board (FOB) vs the local cost of less than USD50 a tonne, the concession would certainly be lucrative, said the research house.

'Our back-of-envelope calculation shows that any such concession may translate into a DCF of 89 sen per Kinsteel share based on its 37% stake.

'Meanwhile, we are incorporating 10% of the iron ore mining DCF to our original fair value pending official award of the concession, from which we arrive at a new FV of 82 sen, and an upgrade on our rating on Kinsteel to Trading BUY,' it said.

''

AirAsia price estimated raised, stock rises

Stock Name: AIRASIA
Company Name: AIRASIA BHD
Research House: UOBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.60



AirAsia Bhd climbed in Kuala Lumpur trading, set to close at a record after UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd raised its share estimate to RM4.60 from RM3.70.

The stock advanced 1.8 per cent to RM4 at 10:34 a.m. local time.

The carrier's rating was maintained at "buy," UOB- Kay Hian wrote in a report today. -- Bloomberg


Perwaja to yield cost savings from iron ore mining

Stock Name: PERWAJA
Company Name: PERWAJA HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.82



Perwaja Holdings Bhd will yield lucrative income if it obtains an iron ore mining concession in Bukit Besi, Dungun, considering the significant material cost savings it could accrue compared with importing the raw material from overseas.

OSK Research, in a research note, today said iron ore was currently
imported at a cost of over US$160 per tonne, free-on-board, against local cost
of mining which would amount to less than US$50 per tonne.

On Saturday, Terengganu Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Said disclosed the
findings of a study which revealed that there were approximately 50 million
tonnes of high-grade iron ore deposits in the area.

Against this backdrop, OSK is upgrading its rating on the company to "Buy"
from "Trading Buy", currently, and has raised the fair value to RM1.82, from
RM1.40, previously. -- Bernama

Margin revival in consumer sector

Stock Name: CARLSBG
Company Name: CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.30



Consumer sector
We have turned more constructive on the consumer sector, in particular on selected food and beverage (F&B) companies within our consumer universe. We believe peaking inflation with softening commodity prices are strong drivers for potential earnings upside of consumer stocks from 2H11 onwards.

An absence of intensified worries over high inflation and higher disposable income should provide support to increased consumption levels. While consumption of consumer goods and services are relatively more resilient compared with other industries, easing inflationary pressures could be a further boost to top line growth of consumer companies. Our in-house economist forecasts July inflation rate to inch up further from June's 3.5% year-on-year'' (a 27-month high) due to the upward adjustments in energy tariffs, before retreating.

In addition to the confluence of structural and cyclical issues, we observe that most global commodity prices have fallen off their peaks on weak recovery in the developed world and slower growth in emerging markets. China, the world's largest importer of various commodities, recently posted a slower GDP of 9.5% for 2Q, against 9.7% in the previous quarter. Should most commodity prices see a notable slowdown towards end-2011, and as raised average selling prices (ASPs) are sustained, we see room for margin expansion on the back of lower input costs. With the exception of sugar and milk, other key input costs such as corn, wheat, cocoa and tapioca starch are trending downwards, 5% to 19% off year-to-date (YTD) peaks.

Across our coverage of consumer stocks, large caps with pricing power and market share leadership have largely outperformed the market by +6% at +27% YTD.

Smaller and medium-sized caps on the other hand were down by as much as 21% in the same period, mainly due to margin compression as a result of high raw materials prices. In this current environment, we prefer staples over discretionaries. Smaller and medium-sized F&B manufacturers are likely to see higher earnings upside potential arising from margin expansion.

Our top 'buys' are Three-A Resources Bhd (3A) and Cocoaland Holdings Bhd as gross margins for both stocks have been hard hit in the past few quarters. Margin expansion should therefore be stronger. Raw materials dominate the bulk of operating costs at 40% to 50% on average. We like 3A for its long-term earnings transformational growth as underpinned by product and capacity expansion from its China joint venture with Wilmar International. We also like Cocoaland for its aggressive but well-defined capacity expansion plans in gummies and high-growth PET 'hot-filling' technology within the beverages industry.

Potential beneficiaries of a lower cost structure include F&B giant Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N) and KFC Holdings Bhd (KFCH) for their superior pricing power and focus in niche markets. Stabilising malting barley and hops in 2H11 ' key inputs for brewers ' may also partially offset the price surge effects seen in 1H. Depending on the magnitude, this could potentially translate into better than expected margins in 2012 for Carlsberg Brewery and Guinness Anchor Bhd. ' AmResearch, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

Margin revival in consumer sector

Stock Name: COCOLND
Company Name: COCOALAND HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.45



Consumer sector
We have turned more constructive on the consumer sector, in particular on selected food and beverage (F&B) companies within our consumer universe. We believe peaking inflation with softening commodity prices are strong drivers for potential earnings upside of consumer stocks from 2H11 onwards.

An absence of intensified worries over high inflation and higher disposable income should provide support to increased consumption levels. While consumption of consumer goods and services are relatively more resilient compared with other industries, easing inflationary pressures could be a further boost to top line growth of consumer companies. Our in-house economist forecasts July inflation rate to inch up further from June's 3.5% year-on-year'' (a 27-month high) due to the upward adjustments in energy tariffs, before retreating.

In addition to the confluence of structural and cyclical issues, we observe that most global commodity prices have fallen off their peaks on weak recovery in the developed world and slower growth in emerging markets. China, the world's largest importer of various commodities, recently posted a slower GDP of 9.5% for 2Q, against 9.7% in the previous quarter. Should most commodity prices see a notable slowdown towards end-2011, and as raised average selling prices (ASPs) are sustained, we see room for margin expansion on the back of lower input costs. With the exception of sugar and milk, other key input costs such as corn, wheat, cocoa and tapioca starch are trending downwards, 5% to 19% off year-to-date (YTD) peaks.

Across our coverage of consumer stocks, large caps with pricing power and market share leadership have largely outperformed the market by +6% at +27% YTD.

Smaller and medium-sized caps on the other hand were down by as much as 21% in the same period, mainly due to margin compression as a result of high raw materials prices. In this current environment, we prefer staples over discretionaries. Smaller and medium-sized F&B manufacturers are likely to see higher earnings upside potential arising from margin expansion.

Our top 'buys' are Three-A Resources Bhd (3A) and Cocoaland Holdings Bhd as gross margins for both stocks have been hard hit in the past few quarters. Margin expansion should therefore be stronger. Raw materials dominate the bulk of operating costs at 40% to 50% on average. We like 3A for its long-term earnings transformational growth as underpinned by product and capacity expansion from its China joint venture with Wilmar International. We also like Cocoaland for its aggressive but well-defined capacity expansion plans in gummies and high-growth PET 'hot-filling' technology within the beverages industry.

Potential beneficiaries of a lower cost structure include F&B giant Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N) and KFC Holdings Bhd (KFCH) for their superior pricing power and focus in niche markets. Stabilising malting barley and hops in 2H11 ' key inputs for brewers ' may also partially offset the price surge effects seen in 1H. Depending on the magnitude, this could potentially translate into better than expected margins in 2012 for Carlsberg Brewery and Guinness Anchor Bhd. ' AmResearch, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

Margin revival in consumer sector

Stock Name: 3A
Company Name: THREE-A RESOURCES BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.13



Consumer sector
We have turned more constructive on the consumer sector, in particular on selected food and beverage (F&B) companies within our consumer universe. We believe peaking inflation with softening commodity prices are strong drivers for potential earnings upside of consumer stocks from 2H11 onwards.

An absence of intensified worries over high inflation and higher disposable income should provide support to increased consumption levels. While consumption of consumer goods and services are relatively more resilient compared with other industries, easing inflationary pressures could be a further boost to top line growth of consumer companies. Our in-house economist forecasts July inflation rate to inch up further from June's 3.5% year-on-year'' (a 27-month high) due to the upward adjustments in energy tariffs, before retreating.

In addition to the confluence of structural and cyclical issues, we observe that most global commodity prices have fallen off their peaks on weak recovery in the developed world and slower growth in emerging markets. China, the world's largest importer of various commodities, recently posted a slower GDP of 9.5% for 2Q, against 9.7% in the previous quarter. Should most commodity prices see a notable slowdown towards end-2011, and as raised average selling prices (ASPs) are sustained, we see room for margin expansion on the back of lower input costs. With the exception of sugar and milk, other key input costs such as corn, wheat, cocoa and tapioca starch are trending downwards, 5% to 19% off year-to-date (YTD) peaks.

Across our coverage of consumer stocks, large caps with pricing power and market share leadership have largely outperformed the market by +6% at +27% YTD.

Smaller and medium-sized caps on the other hand were down by as much as 21% in the same period, mainly due to margin compression as a result of high raw materials prices. In this current environment, we prefer staples over discretionaries. Smaller and medium-sized F&B manufacturers are likely to see higher earnings upside potential arising from margin expansion.

Our top 'buys' are Three-A Resources Bhd (3A) and Cocoaland Holdings Bhd as gross margins for both stocks have been hard hit in the past few quarters. Margin expansion should therefore be stronger. Raw materials dominate the bulk of operating costs at 40% to 50% on average. We like 3A for its long-term earnings transformational growth as underpinned by product and capacity expansion from its China joint venture with Wilmar International. We also like Cocoaland for its aggressive but well-defined capacity expansion plans in gummies and high-growth PET 'hot-filling' technology within the beverages industry.

Potential beneficiaries of a lower cost structure include F&B giant Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N) and KFC Holdings Bhd (KFCH) for their superior pricing power and focus in niche markets. Stabilising malting barley and hops in 2H11 ' key inputs for brewers ' may also partially offset the price surge effects seen in 1H. Depending on the magnitude, this could potentially translate into better than expected margins in 2012 for Carlsberg Brewery and Guinness Anchor Bhd. ' AmResearch, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

MAS' passenger capacity to grow in FY11

Stock Name: MAS
Company Name: MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.68



Malaysian Airline System Bhd
(Aug 1, RM1.52)
Maintain market perform at RM1.48 with fair value of RM1.68: MAS guided a passenger capacity growth rate of 5% to 8% for FY11 ending December, driven largely by the scheduled aircraft delivery of four B737-800s and seven A330-300/200Fs, partially offset by the phasing out (returning to the lessor) of the older and less fuel-efficient B747-400 and B737-400 aircraft.

MAS reiterated there is no need for a cash call in FY11 as funding for the scheduled aircraft delivery in 2011 has already been put in place. For the very heavy 2012, scheduled aircraft delivery of seven B737-800s, seven A330-300/200Fs and five A380-800s, MAS is still weighing options. We hold the view that some form of fundraising seems inevitable given the lumpy cost of RM6.5 billion based on our estimate.

MAS' management did not give us the impression that controlling shareholder Penerbangan Malaysia Bhd/Khazanah Nasional Bhd is breathing down its neck despite the disappointing 1QFY11 results. This eases concerns on the continuity of the top management, and hence business strategy and direction.

We maintain our forecasts but the risks to our view include: (i) a lower than expected rise in MAS' yields; (ii) higher jet fuel cost; and (iii) the inability to contain outbreaks of pandemic diseases.

We expect MAS to turn around in FY12, driven largely by rising yields on the back of the rollout of higher yielding products (particularly those at the front end) from its new aircraft, partially offset by the sustained high fuel cost. Indicative fair value is RM1.68 based on 1.7 times book value, at a premium to its regional peers' average of 1.5 times to reflect strong trading sentiment on potential mergers and acquisitions including privatisation. ' RHB Research, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

KNM: Patience is a virtue

Stock Name: KNM
Company Name: KNM GROUP BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.68



KNM Group Bhd
(Aug 1, RM1.83)
Maintain buy at RM1.82 with revised target price of RM2.68 (from RM3.20): We visited KNM's management recently to get more clarification about the company's potential engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contracts and equity participation in the proposed RM17 billion Integrated Petroleum Complex (IPC) at Teluk Ramunia.

Management indicated that nothing has been confirmed and they are now awaiting Gulf Asian Petroleum Sdn Bhd (GAP), the project developer, to finalise the project details. This includes, for instance, the sources of crude oil supply for its refinery (which we believe will be secured from the Middle East).

We were told that GAP has already completed the front end engineering design (FEED) stage for the IPC. KNM's management also guided that the potential EPCC contracts awarded directly to KNM might be worth about RM3 billion (instead of RM17 billion) as most of the jobs will then be outsourced to third parties.

Besides, other prospective income might be recurring in nature, generated from the oil storage facility and plant maintenance jobs.

Revenue recognition of the RM2.2 billion contract awarded by Peterborough Renewable Energy Ltd has been delayed further from the revised target of starting July 2011. We have revised our assumption for the contracts realisation date to 4QFY11. This project accounts for 40% of KNM's outstanding order book, so we believe it is an important catalyst to re-rate KNM.

As we are still concerned over the viability and funding accessibility of the aforesaid IPC project, we have yet to factor in any profit contribution. We have cut our FY11 and FY12 earnings per share (EPS) by 33.8% and 16.2% to 12.6 sen and 19.1 sen after taking into account: (i) further delay in the Peterborough project; and (ii) lower FY11 and FY12 average gross margin assumption of 19% and 20% from 21% and 22% previously, given lower management guidance.

KNM's 2QFY11 results will be released on Aug 22 and are expected to remain weak. Management expects earnings to recover only in 2HFY11.

Maintain 'buy' with revised target price of RM2.68, based on 14 times revised 2012 EPS. We believe the company's current outstanding order book of RM5.5 billion and the fact that margin tends to improve after clearing its lower-yield order backlog secured in 2009 and 1H10, might cushion further downside. We also expect buying interest in KNM to revive should the Peterborough project start contributing. Any positive news flow regarding the IPC is also a plus to KNM. ' MIDF Research, Aug 1


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 2, 2011.

3QFY11 Results Report

Stock Name: BSLCORP
Company Name: BSL CORPORATION BERHAD
Research House: NETRESEARCHPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.60



CIMB Research maintains Trading Buy on Tenaga

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: TRADING BUYTarget Price: 7.60



KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Trading Buy call on TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] and target price of RM7.60.

It said on Monday, Aug 1, it was not making any changes to its EPS forecasts or target price of RM7.60, which remains based on 1.4 times price-to-book value, 30% below Tenaga's historical average P/BV.

'Tenaga remains a TRADING BUY as it could be catalysed by tariff increases, a 100% pass-through of all its fuel costs and lower IPP payments,' it said.

CIMB Research maintains Neutral on Unisem

Stock Name: UNISEM
Company Name: UNISEM (M) BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.40



KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research is maintaining its Neutral call on Unisem Holdings Bhd and retains its RM1.40 target price.

It said on Monday, Aug 1 that Unisem management's downbeat tone during Unisem's 2Q11 results briefing and the slight delay in the loading of its tier-1 customer surprised it though there had been hints in its 2Q announcement.

'The positive takeaway was the greater push towards copper wire bonding, its goal of being a world-class supplier, which would help bring in more tier-1 customers and its relook at its processes to cut cost.,' it said.

CIMB Research said taking its cue from the subdued guidance, it cut its FY11 EPS forecast by 16% but maintain our FY12-13 numbers as earnings should normalise then.

'The earnings adjustment has no impact to our RM1.40 target price as we continue to value the stock at a 10% discount to its five-year P/BV of 1.0x. As there are no re-rating catalysts in sight and near-term prospects are weak, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating,' it said.