November 11, 2011

AmResearch maintains Buy on Benalec, FV RM2.85

Stock Name: BENALEC
Company Name: BENALEC HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.85



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 11): AmResearch is maintaining its Buy call on Benalec Holdings and raised its fair value from RM2.22 a share to RM2.85 a share.

It said on Friday the higher fair value was based on its revised sum-of-parts value under its base case assumption for its new ventures in Johor.

On Thursday, Benalec has announced that it has secured the rights to reclaim and own two large tracts of prime seafront land ' at Tg.Piai (3,485 acres) and Pengerang (1,760 acres), on the southern tip of Johor.

'The group is leveraging on its core competencies in marine CONSTRUCTION [] to create strategically-located land with water depth of more than 15 metres for the oil & gas and maritime industries,' it said.

AmResearch said these transformational deals ' leveraging on highly-industrialised developments ' are indeed very significant over the next 10 to 15 years.

HLIB Research 11 Nov 2011 (Plantations; AirAsia; UM Land; Economics; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: AIRASIA
Company Name: AIRASIA BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.50

Stock Name: UMLAND
Company Name: UNITED MALAYAN LAND BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.61



Plantations (Neutral)

Palm oil inventory declines on exports jump

'''' Palm oil inventory in Oct 11 declined by 1.6% mom to 2.1m tonnes, mainly on the back of a 19.0% mom jump in exports that more than offset: (1) A 2.1% mom increase in production; and (2) A 3.1% mom decline in domestic consumption.

'''' Production in Oct 11 rose by 2.1% mom to 1.91m tonnes from 1.87m tonnes in the previous month, as previous month's output was dragged by Ramadhan season.

'''' Despite the recent uptrend in CPO prices, we are keeping our average price assumptions of RM3,200/tonne and RM3,000/tonne in 2011 and 2012-13 respectively and we believe further upside to CPO prices will likely be capped, as:

1.'''' La Nina event (if it does form), will likely be weaker relative to the previous La Nina event (2010-11);

2.'''' CPO price's discount against soybean oil has narrowed and this may result in demand rationing by certain price sensitive consuming countries. This, coupled with potentially slower exports to China, India and Pakistan in the coming months will offset lower palm oil supply; and

3.'''' The current global economic headwinds will likely remain a long-drawn issue, in our view, and this may curb demand for palm oil, and hence palm oil prices

'''' We also note that valuations of Malaysian planters (in particular, the larger planters) remain at a premium to the Indonesian planters, despite Malaysian planters' weaker earnings outlook at the downstream segment.

'''' Maintain Neutral on the plantation sector. Top picks are TSH Resources and Tradewinds Plantation.''

''

AirAsia (BUY)

AirAsia "Ancillary Day"

'''' AirAsia organized "Ancillary Day", to assist investors in understanding its ancillary income stream and its potential moving forward, leveraging on its expanding passenger base, efficient IT system and strong brand name.

'''' YTD, ancillary income contributed 20.6% of total revenue, translating into RM50/passenger. Management aims to achieve RM60-65/passenger or 23-25% of total revenue in the medium term. Aside from boosting ancillary income, it also aims to further reduce its average cost/passenger.

'''' Ancillary income is expected to contribute significantly to its bottomline and provide strong protection against increase in jet fuel price.

'''' Continuous expansion plan with new hubs and destinations are expected to maintain strong customer base for AirAsia's ancillary income.

'''' Maintain BUY and TP of RM4.50 based on SOP.

''

UM Land (BUY)

Acquires land in Johor Eastern Corridor

'''' UMLand is acquiring 332.7 acres of freehold land in the Eastern Corridor of Iskandar Malaysia for RM62.7m, or RM4.33 psf.'' We regard this as reasonable given Mah Sing paid RM6.10 psf for their land near Tanjung Pelepas Port in Apr 2011.''

'''' UMLand intends to develop a mixed township with affordable/mid-end housing, to be launched in 2H 2012 and developed over a period of 5 years.

'''' Details such as GDV, product prices to be finalised later.

'''' We maintain our forecast numbers and RNAV for the time being, pending more concrete details regarding the project.'' Maintain BUY with PT of RM1.61 (65% discount to RNAV).

''

Performance of IPI (Sep 2011)

'''' IPI grew by 2.5% yoy in Sep (Aug:'' +0.5% yoy), broadly in line with the consensus estimate of 2.6%, and was driven by stronger manufacturing and electricity performance offsetting a contraction in mining output.''

'''' Similar to the export trend, E&E output growth turned around to +3.4% yoy (Aug: -3.6% yoy), buoyed by stronger expansion of semiconductors and AV products.

'''' We fine-tune our estimate for 3Q GDP growth to 4.7% (previously 4.5%) due to the stronger-than-expected manufacturing growth. Meanwhile, we retain our 2011 GDP forecast at 4.6%.

'''' For 2012, we expect GDP growth to remain stable at 4.5% as softer manufacturing performance is cushioned by the bunching of construction projects.

'''' We see BNM holding the OPR steady at 3.00% until end-2012 as the policymaker focuses on growth agenda given the recent external developments while inflation is on moderation trend.

''

KLCI: Weakening technical readings

'''' Technical outlook has weakened as KLCI was unable to break the stiff resistance zones at 100-d (now 1490) and 200-d (1509) SMAs, as well as falling below the immediate support of 10-d SMA (1477). Further breakdowm below mid Bollinger band (1461) means that the current rally is likely to be disrupted, spurring more selldown towards 30-d SMA (1436) pts.

''

DJIA: Crucial neckline support near 11600

'''' Dow's technical outlook also deteriorated lately following the massive plunge of 389-pt on 9 Nov. Immediate resistance levels are 200-d SMA (now at 11975) and upper Bollinger band (12308). For supports, a breakdown below this neckline support level will trigger more selldown towards 50-d SMA (11439) and lower Bollinger band (11371).

November 10, 2011

HLIB Research 10 November 2011 (GenM; IOI; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: GENM
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.07

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 4.57



Genting Malaysia (BUY)

More Surprises Ahead?

'''' RWNY recorded a surprising net wins of US$651/VLT/day on its first day of business on 28th October 2011. On the following week, it recorded an average net wins of US$629/VLT/day (-3% wow).

'''' The robust net wins/VLT/day implies significant potential upside, as it is 117% above our conservative assumption of US$300 per VLT per day.

'''' Despite some cannibalization, RWNY actually enlarged the overall market size as state wide's net wins improved 23% after the inclusion of RWNY.

'''' If the net wins are able to maintain at current level, there is 12% and 7.4% potential upside to our earnings forecasts and SOP based target price respectively. Recall that ECC only recorded a net win of US$311/VLT/day during its first week of operation in Oct 2006. This underpins our view that RWNY has the potential of overtaking ECC as the market leader.

'''' Forecast remained unchanged, pending more data points on RWNY's net wins. Maintain BUY with target price of RM4.07 based on SOP.

''

IOI Corporation (HOLD)

Resolves land deal termination issue

'''' Both IOI and DutaLand have agreed to revoke the sale and purchase agreement (SPA) to acquire 11,977.9ha of oil palm plantation land in Sabah for RM830m.

'''' OSK Trustees Bhd (the stakeholder jointly appointed by both parties) will refund IOI both the deposit (RM83m, equivalent to 10% of the purchase price) together with the interest accrued.

'''' SOP-derived TP maintained at RM4.57, and our Hold recommendation for IOI maintained.

''

KLCI: Wild swings ahead on worsening external backdrops

'''' In the wake of external wild swings driven by headlines, we reiterate our SELL INTO RALLY recommendation towards stiff resistance 1491-1510 zones. Immediate supports are 10-d SMA (1475) and mid Bollinger band (1458). A breakdown below 1458 will mean that the current rally is likely to be disrupted, spurring more selldown towards 50-d SMA (1434) and lower Bollinger band (1422) pts.

''

PANTECH: Supported by cheap valuations and high DY

'''' PANTECH is consolidating well above the lower Bollinger band (now at RM0.44). Technical indicators are gradually on the mend and upon breakout of its downtrend line resistance at the upper Bollinger band (RM0.49), PANTECH is likely to retake the 30-w SMA (RM0.55), followed by stiffer hurdle near 200-d SMA (RM0.58). Cut loss below RM0.44.

A dividend boost from SEGi

Stock Name: SEG
Company Name: SEG INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.16



SEG International Bhd
(Nov 10, RM1.89)
Maintain buy with revised fair value RM2.16 from RM2.23: SEG International Bhd's (SEGi) 9MFY11 core earnings of RM36.3 million were in line with both our and consensus forecasts at 71% and 72% of the projections. A second interim gross dividend per share (DPS) of 10 sen was declared, bringing FY11 payout to 13.5 sen (excluding a special DPS of 7.3 sen paid in 1Q) which implies payout of more than 100%. We continue to like its diversified course offering as well as established balance sheet operating on an asset-light model. Hence, we maintain 'buy' at revised fair value of RM2.16 based on an unchanged 18 times FY12 price-earnings ratio.

SEGi's 9MFY11 revenue came in 29% higher year-on-year (y-o-y) at RM207.7 million due to higher student enrolment, which we believe has risen to 26,000 from 21,000. Earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin widened correspondingly to 33% from 25% on improved economies of scale as enrolment growth outpaced a marginal increase in operating expenditure.

Lower financing costs and a more favourable effective tax rate helped to further lift 9MFY11 core earnings to RM54.6 million, surging over 74% y-o-y. On a quarterly basis, 3QFY11 numbers were generally flattish q-o-q while on a y-o-y basis, 3QFY11 top line rose 25% to RM70 million while core earnings surged 66% to RM18.3 million on improved utilisation of its existing facilities as the group rolled out healthcare and medical courses.

Although we previously incorporated a FY11 dividend payout of only 50%, year-to-date gross DPS amounted to 13.5 sen (implying a payout ratio of more than 100%) following its second interim gross DPS of 10 sen. This high payout ratio does not entirely catch us by surprise as we have highlighted previously such a possibility given its robust balance sheet operating on an asset-light model. Given its sturdy cash pile of RM106.8 million as of 3QFY11, we believe further upside is not unlikely as capital expenditure remains largely manageable at RM15 million to RM20 million per year, hence we bump up our DPS forecast to 17.7 sen for FY11 and 9.5 sen for FY12 at a payout ratio of 180% and 80% respectively.

We make no major changes to our core assumptions for now. Our FY11 and FY12 earnings per share estimates are lowered by 3% and 1% respectively as we tweak our opex structure to account for higher overhead expenses in the belief that the group will likely recruit more lecturers for the commencement of its vocational courses catering for foreign students. In a separate announcement, SEGi mentioned that courses for an initial batch of 600 Vietnamese students will commence in late 4Q11. ' OSK Research, Nov 10


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 11, 2011.

MPHB's market share rebounds after 4D Jackpot launch

Stock Name: MPHB
Company Name: MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.50



Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd
(Nov 10, RM 2.63)
Initiate coverage with buy at target price RM3.50: Since the launch of 4D Jackpot in 2009, MPHB's market share has rebounded to 37% in 1H11, almost back to 2002 levels when it was the market leader. With Berjaya Sports Toto (BToto) launching its 4D Jackpot game recently, the overall 4D Jackpot market size grew with a minimal dent seen in MPHB's sales. 4D Jackpot is still in its infancy (at just 13% of MPHB's gaming revenue) and should benefit from rising awareness and absence of illegal betting.

MPHB has first-mover advantage and stands to benefit from a lower blended prize payout (4D Jackpot: 55% against traditional 4D: 64.5%). Being a small-ticket item, numbers forecast operators (NFO) are less vulnerable to an economic slowdown and may benefit from the introduction of a minimum wage policy in Malaysia by end-2011.

MPHB is transforming into a purer gaming play post acquisition of a 49% stake in Magnum 4D from CVC Funds for a reasonable RM1.6 billion. With strong three-year earnings compound annual growth rate of 24%, MPHB offers a cheaper exposure to the resilient NFO segment (8.6 times CY12F price-earnings ratio against BST's 13.5 times).

MPHB's stockbroking, insurance and hotel units are up for sale. Including recently sold Menara Multi-Purpose, these could fetch RM1.6 billion which it could use to pare down debt (net gearing would drop to 40% from 66%, leading to RM96 million interest savings) and pay special dividends (up to 56 sen per share). Dividend payout could better 2010's 32% (BToto: more than 75%) given stronger operating cash flows and minimal capital expenditure.

MPHB's crown jewel is the RM3 billion gross development value (GDV) mixed development in Jalan Imbi, Kuala Lumpur, adjacent to the KL International Financial District (future MRT stop). Its JV with Bandar Raya Development in the Klang Valley and Penang could see RM65 million cash up front plus RM86 million earnings per year from 2014. Its other landbank in Pengerang, Johor (4,641 acres [1,878 ha]), and Balik Pulau, Penang, (208 acres), also have long-term appreciation potential. There could be upside to earnings and revised net asset value if we include contribution from property development and future disposal of non-core assets. ' Hwang DBS Vickers, Nov 10


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 11, 2011.

TRC Synergy going all out for MRT, bullish on Brunei

Stock Name: TRC
Company Name: TRC SYNERGY BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.81



TRC Synergy Bhd
(Nov 10, 64 sen)
Maintain outperform with fair value of 81 sen: TRC is going all out for mass rapid transit (MRT) work packages. Its tender department has been instructed to prepare and put in bids for all 18 above-ground work packages of the Sg Buloh-Kajang (SBK) Line of the Klang Valley MRT project worth a total of RM12 billion to RM13 billion based on our estimate.

For elevated civil works, TRC has a significant edge by virtue of the specialised construction equipment it owns, particularly, the RM20 million girder launcher and gantry that we estimate can translate to a two percentage point margin advantage.

TRC is bullish on the construction market in Brunei, given the tremendous room for basic infrastructure spending including roads, housing, hospitals and universities. Already, TRC in October secured a RM319 million contract for the 'modernisation' of Brunei International Airport Terminal.

Brunei is not a new market to TRC. Apart from eyeing basic infrastructure projects, TRC has been pitching for a multi-billion ringgit crude oil refinery and storage project there.

The risks include: (i) new contracts secured in FY12/FY13 coming in below our target of RM300 million per year; and (ii) escalation of input costs.

We have turned positive on the construction sector as there is now even more urgency for the government to expedite the rollout of various public projects to pump prime the economy to shield it against the increased risk of the global economy slipping into a double dip recession.

TRC is one of our top picks for the construction sector given that it is a good proxy to the MRT project, the single largest project that will anchor the current construction cycle.

TRC is the only one of the 28 companies shortlisted to bid for the 18 above-ground work packages that is pre-qualified to bid in all six categories.

Indicative fair value is 81 sen based on 12 times fully-diluted FY12 earnings per share of 6.7 sen, in line with our benchmark one-year forward target price earnings ratio of 10 to 14 times for the construction sector.

An additional downside protection to its share price will come from a strong balance sheet with a net cash of RM118.5 million as at June 30, translating to 25.4sen per share. ' RHB Research, Nov 10


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 11, 2011.

S&P lowers TNB to negative

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: AFFINPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 6.70



Tenaga Nasional Bhd
(Nov 10, RM 5.79)
Maintain neutral with unchanged target price of RM6.70: With reference to Tenaga Nasional Bhd's US dollar-based bond exposure (totalling RM2.9 billion and accounting for 15% of TNB's total borrowing profile), Standard & Poor's (S&P) Ratings Services has revised down its outlook on TNB from stable to negative. This is premised on weakened profitability and higher operating cost.

S&P affirmed its BBB+ long-term corporate credit rating and the axA+/ axA-1 Asean regional scale rating on TNB. It also affirmed the BBB+ issue rating on its senior unsecured notes.

Similar to Moody's rating outlook published yesterday, S&P is of the view that the government would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to TNB in the event of financial distress. S&P could revise TNB's outlook to stable if the government provides some fuel price relief that would enable TNB to recover losses from fuel shortages.

Otherwise, S&P will likely downgrade TNB's US dollar bond ratings. This may cause the yields to rise, thereby pushing up future borrowing costs for TNB's international bonds in the future.

Having said that, we do not expect a downgrade by international rating houses (S&P, Moody's) to materially impact TNB's borrowing cost because TNB is unlikely to raise future capex funding via US dollar debt given that its revenue cash flow is ringgit-based.

It has been actively retiring its US dollar debts in the past year in view of the depreciation of the greenback against the ringgit. The next rating reviews, which are more crucial, are expected at the end of this year or in January 2012 by Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd (MARC) and RAM Rating Services Bhd.

Any negative outlook from MARC and RAM would have an impact on TNB's ringgit-based bond borrowing cost. We do not expect significant deviation in MARC and RAM's rating on TNB as any downgrade would have wider repercussions on the broader Malaysian bond market ' especially the bond ratings on independent power producers ' and this may impede the country's ability to plan its future power plant capacity efficiently (as a downgrade in TNB's rating will likely result in higher borrowing cost for all future power plant projects).

At this juncture, we see little risk from S&P's negative outlook. Maintain 'neutral' with an unchanged RM6.70 per share price target, a 10% discount to our discounted cash flow of RM7.44 per share (8% discount rate; 3% terminal growth rate). ' Affin Investment Bank, Nov 10


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 11, 2011.

Hektar REIT - Nice cinematic effects

Stock Name: HEKTAR
Company Name: HEKTAR REITS
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.50



RHB Research maintains Underperform on Lafarge

Stock Name: LMCEMNT
Company Name: LAFARGE MALAYAN CEMENT BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 6.02



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 10): RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Underperform on Lafarge Malayan Cement as competition heats up in the domestic market.

It said on Thursday Lafarge estimates domestic cement demand to grow by 6%-8% in 2011 and 3%-5% in 2012, underpinned by key on-going large-scale infrastructure projects.

'Rebates given by cement players have surprisingly trended higher recently, while margins are under pressure due to high coal prices and hike in electricity tariff. The higher rebates mainly reflect increased competition in the industry, as certain players are trying to capture additional market share ahead of the imminent capacity expansion in the industry by mid-2013,' it said.

RHB Research said Lafarge has no plans to increase production capacity, but is looking for ways to de-bottleneck its production process. With minimal capex spending going forward, Lafarge's strong operating cashflow will be sufficient to support its dividend payout (estimated 34sen/share in FY11, translating to a decent yield of 4.9%).

'We cut our FY11-13F earnings forecasts by 3-7%, having adjusted our domestic cement demand growth assumptions, domestic vs. export sales ratio, domestic net selling price, and coal price assumptions.

'Indicative fair value is reduced to RM6.02 (from RM6.36) based on 14x revised FY12/12 EPS of 43.0 sen, in line with our one-year forward target PER for the cement sub-sector,' it said.

RHB Research maintains Outperform on SEGi

Stock Name: SEG
Company Name: SEG INTERNATIONAL BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.15



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 10): RHB Research Institute is maintaining its Outperform recommendation on SEG International with a fair value of RM2.15, based on unchanged target 17 times FY12 price-to-earnings ratio (PER).

It said on Thursday that recent concerns with regards to the possible PTPTN loan reduction will have a minimal impact on SEGi as only about 27% of its students are under the PTPTN loans.

SEGi's earnings rose 66.3% to RM18.32 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2011 from RM11.01 million a year ago. Revenue increased by 24.1% to RM69.95 million from RM56.36 million while earnings per share were 3.50 sen versus 2.22 sen.

For the nine-month period, its net profit increased by 74.2% to Rm54.57 million from RM31.32 million while revenue saw a 28.8% rise to RM207.65 million from RM161.23 million.

RHB Research said the '' 3Q11 net profit was within expectations. A dividend of 10 sen per share was declared.

' Although sequential performance was flattish, revenue grew by 24.1% on-year due to higher student enrolment that we estimate grew 19-20% on-year. As operating costs are mostly fixed, the improved top line resulted in EBIT growing 70.3% on-year. Effective tax rate increased to 21% in 3Q11 (vs. 18.4% in 3Q10), but the stronger EBIT led to an overall increase in the net profit margin to 26.5% (from 19.5% in 3Q10),' it said.

SEGi also inked an agreement with the Vietnam government to finalise the MoU that was signed in Aug. These collaborations will fall under the SkillsMalaysia INVITE project and SEGi will be responsible for providing skill-based training to the Vietnam vocational instructors and students.

'An initial batch of 600 Vietnam students will commence training in 2011. With average revenue of about RM20,000 per student, we believe that the SkillsMalaysia INVITE programme will contribute about 8% to the top line in the longer term,' said RHB Research.

November 9, 2011

Malaysian Pacific Industries missing the mark

Stock Name: MPI
Company Name: MALAYSIAN PACIFIC INDUSTRIES
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 2.57



Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd
(Nov 9, RM3.22)
Maintain underperform with revised target price of RM2.57 from RM2.75: A shortfall in revenue and margins was behind MPI's 1QFY12 ending June results miss. This cannot be fully offset by the dividend, which was below expectations. The market is likely to react negatively to the poor demand and low utilisation that these results denote.

MPI turned in a 1QFY12 loss as opposed to our and consensus forecast of a full-year profit. We slash our earnings and dividends as a result. This reduces our target price, based on a 60% discount to its five-year historical adjusted average price-to-book value. We reiterate our 'underperform' call.

MPI's revenue fell by 8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 15%'' year-on-year (y-o-y), thanks to lower revenue for all business segments and a more challenging external environment which crimped demand and order flows. We believe that MPI did not resort to price cutting to fill up capacity as it had in 4QFY11. This probably led to lower utilisation rates on a q-o-q basis. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margins fell by a sharp 3.6 percentage pts q-o-q due to lower capacity utilisation and pricier inputs.

Despite the loss-making quarter, MPI declared a dividend per share (DPS) of five sen, which, though positive, is below our previous forecast of 23 sen net DPS for FY12 and is only half of last year's rate. It does not, we believe, make up fully for the 1QFY12 earnings letdown.

MPI expects a challenging FY12 given the softening demand and uncertain macro outlook, much like its customers which forecast 4Q top line declines of 9% to 13% q-o-q in the case of Intersil, 3% to 9% for Maxim and 8% for ST Micro. For MPI, we now forecast narrower profits for FY12 to reflect this. Note that there is downside risk to our forecast.'' ' CIMB IB Research, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

Hartalega feeling the pressure from competitors

Stock Name: HARTA
Company Name: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AFFINPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.33



Hartalega Holdings Bhd
(Nov 9, RM5.55)
Maintain buy with target price RM7.33: Hartalega's 1HFY12 revenue grew 26.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM448.9 million. The strong top line growth was attributed to: (i) higher average selling prices (ASP), in tandem with higher nitrile latex prices; and (ii) 28.8% y-o-y increase in glove volume sales. Earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) margin was slightly lower at 31.1% against 31.9% in 1HFY11. This is most likely attributed to stronger competition from increased nitrile glove production by other glove manufacturers.

Overall, 1HFY12 headline net profit grew by 13.9% y-o-y to RM100.9 million. This includes a RM8.7 million loss on foreign exchange and changes in fair value for forward foreign exchange contracts (1HFY11 saw a gain of RM3.1 million).
Stripping out extraordinary income, 1HFY12 core net profit grew by a sharper 28.1% y-o-y to RM109.6 million. Results were within expectations, accounting for 53% and 52% of our and consensus full-year estimates. Hartalega also declared a first interim dividend of six sen per share.

Sales volume in 2QFY12 slipped by 1.6% q-o-q, offset by higher ASP for nitrile gloves (+8.5% q-o-q). Overall, 2QFY12 revenue grew by 4.6% q-o-q to RM229.5 million, while bottom line declined by 15.8% q-o-q to RM46.1 million. Excluding the forex losses, 2QFY12 net profit was flat q-o-q at RM54.8 million.

On a y-o-y basis, 2QFY12 net profit surged 20.4%, on the back of a 24.5% increase in revenue. The strong performance was attributed to: (i) 23.2% y-o-y increase in volume sales; and (ii) higher ASP for natural rubber and nitrile gloves (+10.6% y-o-y and +1.8% y-o-y, respectively).

In terms of geographical breakdown, sales to North America remained steady, accounting for 55.3% of total revenue in 2QFY12 (1QFY12: 55.5%).'' Demand from Europe continued to grow strongly, with its proportion of revenue contribution rising from 27.6% in 1QFY12 to 33.2% in 2QFY12. We expect demand from Europe to remain robust as the demand switch to nitrile gloves is still gathering momentum.

No change to our FY12 to FY14 net earnings forecasts. We have already factored'' in weaker margins from stronger price competition. We continue to like Hartalega for: (i) reduced exposure to volatile latex prices; (ii) strong technological and operational efficiencies; and (iii) attractive valuations (CY12 price-earnings ratio of 8.6 times against the sector average of 10 times).

Hartalega also offers high dividend yields of 5% to 6%. Maintain 'buy', with an unchanged target price of RM7.33. ' Affin Investment Bank, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

Rain dampens plantation output

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.54



Plantation
Maintain neutral: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is due to release its October statistics today. We are expecting crude palm oil (CPO) output in October to be slightly lower than September's 1.87 million tonnes.

We estimate that CPO output in October fell by 4.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.79 million tonnes, mainly due to wet weather conditions in northern Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak.

However, cumulative CPO output is expected to be 9.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) higher to 15.7 million tonnes and full-year output may touch 18 million tonnes for the first time.

Total exports in October are likely to have increased as lower CPO prices spurred buying interest. We estimate 1.69 million tonnes of total exports in October, an increase of 9.5% m-o-m and 15.7% y-o-y.

Independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) estimates that total exports in October increased by 11.9% m-o-m to 1.68 million tonnes, mainly due to higher exports to EU countries and Pakistan. SGS estimates that on a sequential month basis, total exports in October to EU countries increased 27% to 317,000 tonnes while exports'' to Pakistan almost tripled to 201,750 tonnes.

Despite the higher expected export figure for October, we are maintaining our 'neutral' recommendation on the sector given that: (i) Export growth is not keeping pace with CPO production growth. This will cause the inventory level to remain at its current high level of two million tonnes; and (ii) Narrowing discount of CPO price to soyabean price. Currently, CPO is trading at a 14.5% discount to the soyabean price, which is 0.8 of a percentage point lower than its five-year average discount of 15.3%. The narrowing of the discount implies the CPO price is probably running ahead of its fundamentals. We do not discount the possibility it will retrace in the weeks ahead.

We are keeping our average CPO price forecast of RM3,200 per tonne for 2011 and RM2,700 per tonne for 2012 and maintaining our 'buy' calls for Sime Darby Bhd (target price: RM9.05), TSH Resources Bhd (TP: RM3.54) and TH Plantations Bhd (TP RM2.26). ' MIDF Research, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

Rain dampens plantation output

Stock Name: THPLANT
Company Name: TH PLANTATIONS BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.26



Plantation
Maintain neutral: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is due to release its October statistics today. We are expecting crude palm oil (CPO) output in October to be slightly lower than September's 1.87 million tonnes.

We estimate that CPO output in October fell by 4.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.79 million tonnes, mainly due to wet weather conditions in northern Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak.

However, cumulative CPO output is expected to be 9.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) higher to 15.7 million tonnes and full-year output may touch 18 million tonnes for the first time.

Total exports in October are likely to have increased as lower CPO prices spurred buying interest. We estimate 1.69 million tonnes of total exports in October, an increase of 9.5% m-o-m and 15.7% y-o-y.

Independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) estimates that total exports in October increased by 11.9% m-o-m to 1.68 million tonnes, mainly due to higher exports to EU countries and Pakistan. SGS estimates that on a sequential month basis, total exports in October to EU countries increased 27% to 317,000 tonnes while exports'' to Pakistan almost tripled to 201,750 tonnes.

Despite the higher expected export figure for October, we are maintaining our 'neutral' recommendation on the sector given that: (i) Export growth is not keeping pace with CPO production growth. This will cause the inventory level to remain at its current high level of two million tonnes; and (ii) Narrowing discount of CPO price to soyabean price. Currently, CPO is trading at a 14.5% discount to the soyabean price, which is 0.8 of a percentage point lower than its five-year average discount of 15.3%. The narrowing of the discount implies the CPO price is probably running ahead of its fundamentals. We do not discount the possibility it will retrace in the weeks ahead.

We are keeping our average CPO price forecast of RM3,200 per tonne for 2011 and RM2,700 per tonne for 2012 and maintaining our 'buy' calls for Sime Darby Bhd (target price: RM9.05), TSH Resources Bhd (TP: RM3.54) and TH Plantations Bhd (TP RM2.26). ' MIDF Research, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

Rain dampens plantation output

Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.05



Plantation
Maintain neutral: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is due to release its October statistics today. We are expecting crude palm oil (CPO) output in October to be slightly lower than September's 1.87 million tonnes.

We estimate that CPO output in October fell by 4.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.79 million tonnes, mainly due to wet weather conditions in northern Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah and Sarawak.

However, cumulative CPO output is expected to be 9.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) higher to 15.7 million tonnes and full-year output may touch 18 million tonnes for the first time.

Total exports in October are likely to have increased as lower CPO prices spurred buying interest. We estimate 1.69 million tonnes of total exports in October, an increase of 9.5% m-o-m and 15.7% y-o-y.

Independent cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) estimates that total exports in October increased by 11.9% m-o-m to 1.68 million tonnes, mainly due to higher exports to EU countries and Pakistan. SGS estimates that on a sequential month basis, total exports in October to EU countries increased 27% to 317,000 tonnes while exports'' to Pakistan almost tripled to 201,750 tonnes.

Despite the higher expected export figure for October, we are maintaining our 'neutral' recommendation on the sector given that: (i) Export growth is not keeping pace with CPO production growth. This will cause the inventory level to remain at its current high level of two million tonnes; and (ii) Narrowing discount of CPO price to soyabean price. Currently, CPO is trading at a 14.5% discount to the soyabean price, which is 0.8 of a percentage point lower than its five-year average discount of 15.3%. The narrowing of the discount implies the CPO price is probably running ahead of its fundamentals. We do not discount the possibility it will retrace in the weeks ahead.

We are keeping our average CPO price forecast of RM3,200 per tonne for 2011 and RM2,700 per tonne for 2012 and maintaining our 'buy' calls for Sime Darby Bhd (target price: RM9.05), TSH Resources Bhd (TP: RM3.54) and TH Plantations Bhd (TP RM2.26). ' MIDF Research, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

TSH Resources shows strong sustainability

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.70



TSH Resources Bhd
(Nov 9, RM3.20)
Maintain buy with target price RM3.70: Our visit to TSH's Sabah operations last week reaffirmed our confidence that TSH will deliver our estimated robust 20% growth in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production, and we see further upside from its new commercial planting of the Wakuba clones.

TSH also demonstrated strong sustainability with its effective estate management and support from its ancillary incomes. We reiterate our 'buy' call on TSH with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM3.70 based on 15 times FY13 price earnings-ratio (PER).

The preliminary results from its trial planting of Wakuba clones are encouraging, producing 13.9 tonnes per hectare year-to-date in its third year. TSH obtained approvals to plant Wakuba in Indonesia recently and will begin large-scale planting in 2012. We estimate that 2015 to 2020 FFB production could be enhanced gradually by 0.7% to 7.2%. Further upside in FFB production could emanate from stronger yields due to first generation soil in Kalimantan and accelerated planting plans.

TSH replaced buffalos with 'mechanical buffalos' to speed up collection and transport of FFB in its Sabah estates and increased land harvested per worker from 1.2ha per day to 1.7 to 2ha per day. TSH plans to introduce mechanical buffalos in its Indonesia estates soon. In addition, TSH utilises GPS to monitor estate operations and fine-tune management practices.

The government may raise the renewable energy (RE) tariff from 21.25 sen per kWh to 29 sen per kWh soon. If approved, we estimate a 3% increase in earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) from the tariff hike. TSH also expects RM6 million to RM7 million in Ebit contribution per year from selling carbon credits (CERs). Management guided that Eko Pulp and Paper Sdn Bhd will commission in 1H12 but expects minor earnings contribution for now.

We expect a reduction in liquidity discount soon, as TSH's proposed one-for-one bonus issue will go ex after the EGM to be held on Nov 21. TSH's 2013 PER of 12.7 times is relatively cheap for its young palm age profile of 6.6 years average and an expected 20% growth in FFB. We have yet to factor in the RE tariff hike and CERs sales into our earnings estimates which could provide further upside to earnings. Our TP of RM3.70 offers 18% upside from the current price. ' Maybank IB Research, Nov 9


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 10, 2011.

HDBSVR cuts DRB-Hicom TP to RM3.45

Stock Name: DRBHCOM
Company Name: DRB-HICOM BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.45



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 9): Hwang DBS Vickers Research (HDBSVR) has a Buy on DRB-Hicom but reduced the target price to RM3.45.

It said on Wednesday it had reduced the FY12F-FY14F earnings after factoring in lower earnings from Honda Malaysia due to the Thailand flood, back loading contribution for Deftech contract, and trimmed Alam Flora's earnings.

'Our target price is now RM3.45, at 20% discount to sum-of-parts,' it said

UEM Land up on RM1.3b Angkasa Raya project

Stock Name: UEMLAND
Company Name: UEM LAND HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: UOBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.68



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 9): Shares of UEM Land Bhd to a high of RM2.16 on Wednesday as buying interest perked up on its unit, SUNRISE BHD []'s plan for a RM1.3 billion'' landmark project, Angkasa Raya.

At 11.22am, it was up three sen to RM2.14. There were 4.04 million shares done at prices ranging from RM2.12 to RM2.16.

On Tuesday, Sunrise unveiled plans for the project which has an estimated gross development value of RM1.3 billion and is poised to be the group's new flagship developed. The building will be on the 1.59 acre site of the former Wisma Angkasa Raya, which was demolished in August.

Comment: The 29-year-old Wisma Angkasa Raya, Kuala Lumpur's first high-rise office building, was demolished in August 2011.

UOB Kay Hian Research said in June 2008, Sunrise paid RM179 million for the 69,171 sq ft Angkasa Raya parcel, or a land cost of about RM2,588 psf.

'Assuming a plot ratio of 10 times, the land cost per plot ratio works out to be RM259 psf. Adding RM600 psf for the CONSTRUCTION [] of an up-market development and factoring in an efficiency ratio of 80%, the total construction cost is about RM1,100 psf per net saleable area.

'We reckon UEM Land could garner a decent margin of 18-36%, assuming a conservative ASP of RM1,300 to RM1,500psf,' it said.

UOB Kay Hian said the project would add about 2.0 sen to our fully-diluted RNAV/share.

It maintained its earnings forecasts for now. A back-of-the-envelope calculation showed that the development could add RM30m to UEM Land's bottom line in FY13-17, or about 9% of its FY12 net profit, it added

'We maintain our BUY call with a target price of RM2.68 (25% discount to RNAV/share of RM3.57). This new valuation takes into account of the lingering uncertainty of the property market as well as the gloomy outlook of the macro picture,' it said.

November 8, 2011

3Q/FY11 results. Within expectations. Maintain Hold Call.

Stock Name: FURNWEB
Company Name: FURNIWEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Research House: MERCURYPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.38



MHB gets RM1.4b ExxonMobil job

Stock Name: MHB
Company Name: MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENG
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 6.60



Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd
(Nov 8, RM6.09)
Maintain neutral at RM6.09 with fair value of RM6.60: Last week, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB) said its 100%-subsidiary, Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Sdn Bhd (MMHE), had signed a contract worth about RM1.4 billion as part of the Tapis Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) project with ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Malaysia Inc. The scope of work includes procurement, fabrication, testing, load-out, transport, installation and commissioning of the integrated Tapis R offshore platform deck as well as two inter-platform bridges. This project is expected to be completed by end-2013.

The Tapis field lies about 190km off Terengganu at a depth of 64m. It produces an extra light and low-sulfur crude which once served as the benchmark for pricing oil cargo in Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam. According to our secondary research, this field is one of seven mature offshore fields that ExxonMobil (78%) and Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas ' 22%) have agreed to develop as part of a 25-year production-sharing contract (PSC) finalised in June 2009. The other six fields are Seligi, Guntong, Semangkok, Irong Barat, Tebu, and Palas, which are also covered by the PSC for the provision for the deployment of EOR and further drilling to boost production output.

The installation of facilities on this platform is scheduled to commence in 2QCY13, with Tapis EOR targeted for commencement at end-2013. The Tapis R topside is an 18,000-tonne integrated deck with facilities for gas compression, water injection and production separation. It also has living quarters to accommodate up to 145 personnel. This platform will be connected by bridge to the existing Tapis B platform and a new riser platform, Tapis Q, which we understand is also being constructed by MMHE. It is estimated that about 2,600 personnel will be involved in various aspects during the peak period for activity. This Tapis EOR project is also one of the Entry Point Projects announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP).

We are positive, but make no change to our FY11/FY12 earnings because we had earlier assumed some order book replenishment for the company.

Our fair value for the stock remains unchanged at RM6.60, based on a price-earnings ratio of 23 times FY12 earnings per share. We like MHB's market leadership in Malaysia via its three core businesses of heavy engineering and construction, marine conversion and marine repair. Also, securing this most recent RM1.4 billion contract is solid proof of the unfailing support from Petronas and its PSC contractors. To date, the group's order book and tender book remain strong at above RM4 billion and RM5 billion. ' OSK Research, Nov 8


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.

Nestle managing input cost inflation

Stock Name: NESTLE
Company Name: NESTLE (M) BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 47.35



Nestle (M) Bhd
(Nov 8, RM49.50)
Maintain neutral at RM50 with revised target price of RM47.35 (from RM46.90): Nestle's 9MFY11 net profit rose 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM369.2 million. It is in line with our but above consensus estimates, accounting for 78.8% and 81.4% of the full-year figures. No dividend was declared for this quarter.

Nestle's 9MFY11 revenue registered a double-digit growth of 14.7% y-o-y to RM3.5 billion against the preceding year's RM3.1 billion. The good performance was boosted by better growth in domestic and export sales. Input costs still remained at high levels for Nestle at RM671.1 million (+15.9% y-o-y). The main culprit still lies in the rising prices of raw materials such as coffee beans (+15.8% year-to-date). The escalating raw material prices have also led to a lower earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) margin of 0.9 percentage points.

The encouraging sales were boosted by higher aggregate demand due to the festive season, fasting month and Hari Raya Aidilfitri as well as benefiting from the round of price increases on selective products in May. Contrary to that, net profit on a sequential basis dropped slightly to RM110 million (-2.8% y-o-y) from RM113.2 million due to a higher-than-expected effective tax rate.

The rise in raw material prices still remains the biggest challenge to Nestle. The surge in commodity prices will put further pressure on its input costs. However, it is worth noting that Nestle will closely monitor the movement in commodity prices, improve operational efficiencies and cost savings to avoid having to pass on the costs to consumers.

On Nestle's annualised earnings, our forecast fell slightly behind at 4.9% y-o-y mainly due to its higher-than-expected robust business anchored by price hikes on selected products. Therefore, we fine tune our earnings forecast by +4.5% for FY11 and +7% for FY12.

The earnings revision has lifted our discounted cash flow target price to RM47.35 (previous RM46.90) with weighted average cost of capital of 8% (previous WACC of 7.6%). We like Nestle for its defensive nature. From an earnings perspective, Nestle's FY12 price-earnings ratio of 22.5 times is considered expensive compared with its peers such as F&N (18.9 times PER), Nestle SA (15.4) and Cerebos Pacific (12.4). However, we still expect Nestle to outperform the KLCI during troubled times. We think it's an attractive stock given its high dividend yield of 4.4%. Therefore, we maintain our 'neutral' recommendation on Nestle. ' MIDF Research, Nov 8


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.

Perisai's prospects look good despite Garuda delay

Stock Name: PERISAI
Company Name: PERISAI PETROLEUM TEKNOLOGI
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.45



Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd
(Nov 8, 62.5 sen)
Recommend outperform at 63 sen with revised target price of RM1.45 (from RM1.60): We learned from our recent meeting with managing director Izzet Ishak that the Garuda Energy (L) Ltd deal is now expected to be concluded in December, three months later than expected, because the conversion of Garuda's mobile offshore production unit (MOPU) took longer than expected. We therefore lower our FY11 EPS by 26% as we remove the RM12.5 million net profit imputed in our numbers. However, we take comfort in the fact that the MOPU has started servicing its 2+1+1 contract at the Bekok C field. Contributions should start flowing into Perisai's books in 1Q12.

The delay results in an earnings per share (EPS) downgrade for FY11 only. Our target price also drops as we roll it forward and use our CY13 target market price-earnings ratio of 12.6 times instead of our CY12 PER of 14.5 times. Fleet expansion and potential marginal field jobs support our 'outperform' call.

We are pumped about Perisai's prospects. Contributions from Garuda may come through later than expected but Perisai has started to reap the benefits of last year's restructuring. In August, the company completed the RM45 million acquisition of a 51% stake in Intan Offshore Sdn Bhd. The Intan and Garuda acquisitions underpin our expectations of record net profits in FY12 and FY13 and a robust three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 112%. The 209% EPS surge in FY11 will be Perisai's first earnings growth in four years.

We advise investors to accumulate this undervalued stock aggressively. Its EPS CAGR is hard to beat and the stock offers the most share price upside in our oil and gas portfolio. Despite this, FY12/FY13 times PERs are under six times, making Perisai the cheapest stock in the portfolio. Potential marginal field contracts, which may require MOPUs, add to the attraction. ' CIMB Research, Nov 8


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.

Evergreen Fibreboard still weak despite better 2H

Stock Name: EVERGRN
Company Name: EVERGREEN FIBREBOARD BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.85



Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd
(Nov 8, 91.5 sen)
Maintain'' neutral at 96.5 sen with revised fair value of 85 sen (from RM1.25): EFB experienced its worst quarter since 2010 in 1QFY11. The company continued to be hemmed in by flat selling prices and costlier raw materials. However, it managed to raise the selling prices of medium density fibreboard (MDF), which contributes more than 85% of revenue. The prices of 2.5mm thick MDF stood at US$270 (RM845) per cu m in January 2011 while 18mm MDF was at US$245. In July, EFB raised the price of 2.5mm thick MDF by 11.1% to US$300 per cu m while 18mm thick MDF was priced 12.2% higher at US$275. We believe the price increases, which were agreed to by EFB's customers, will contribute to a better 2HFY11 than 1H. However, the company decided to not continue raising its product prices in August to ensure that it remains competitive.

We are forecasting a better 2HFY11 in terms of net profit given the drop in raw material prices as well as higher selling prices. But we are lowering our full-year FY11 net profit forecast to take into account its poor 1HFY11 results, weaker customer demand and higher year-on-year prices of raw materials. We are cutting our net profit estimate by 16.1% to RM58.2 million from RM69.4 million previously although we anticipate a better 3QFY11 quarter-on-quarter. For FY12, our revenue forecast is nudged down by 1.6% to RM944.9 million from RM960.4 million, while the projected net profit is reduced by 19.1% from RM77 million to RM62.3 million.

EFB will need a catalyst to propel its earnings in FY11 and FY12. We feel that the company's earnings will still be weighed down by high raw material costs and stiff competition. Hence, we are valuing the stock at a lower seven times FY12 earnings per share (from nine times), from which we derive a fair value of 85 sen, which is in line with its five-year average historical price-earnings ratio. ' OSK Research, Nov 8


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.

Hartalega shows good operating numbers

Stock Name: HARTA
Company Name: HARTALEGA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.80



Hartalega Holdings Bhd
(Nov 8, RM5.46)
Maintain buy at RM5.41 with target price of RM6.80: Results for 2QFY12 (due yesterday evening) are likely to meet expectations with commendable operating numbers, though likely partially mitigated by some mark-to-market foreign exchange loss. We see long-term value in the stock on the nitrile glove growth story and its compelling CY12 price-earnings ratio (PER) valuation of just 8.6 times. Moreover, the stock offers a potent combination of both growth (three-year net profit compound annual growth rate of 15%) and yield (2012 net dividend yield of 5.3%). Hartalega remains our top pick in the glove sector with a target price of RM6.80.

We expect the group to post a 2QFY12 core net profit of RM54 million to RM56 million (flattish quarter-on-quarter [q-o-q], +17% year-on-year [y-o-y]; before mark-to-market forex losses), lifting 1HFY12 net profit to around RM110 million (+24% y-o-y), meeting 53% of our full-year forecast. We expect volumes to rise slightly q-o-q (by about 3% to 4%) following the retrofitting of Plant 4. Margins, however, are likely to contract q-o-q, for the group absorbed the bulk of the rise in raw material prices (natural butadiene rubber [NBR] cost: +13% q-o-q) to ensure competitive pricing.

The group has around US$73 million (RM228.5 million) worth of forex forward contracts at an exchange rate of RM3.04 to RM3.07, with the bulk expiring in March 2012 (4QFY12). As at end 2QFY12, the ringgit stood at 3.19 per dollar and has tapered off to 3.11 presently, hence the loss will only widen should the rate rise above RM3.19 in March 2012. Even with the forex loss, Hartalega's 1HFY12 results will still be broadly in line with our forecasts and consensus.

The price of its key input, NBR, has fallen sharply by 18% month-on-month to US$1.70 per kg and is 11% cheaper than latex now. However, we do not expect significant margin improvement in the sequential quarters, for management would likely defend market share via a competitive average selling price, in view of the new capacity-led competition in the nitrile segment. Separately, sales of nitrile gloves remain strong in Europe, for they are still 10% to 20% cheaper than latex PF gloves.

We expect the group to meet our 9% y-o-y earnings growth for FY12. We also expect Hartalega to declare a first interim dividend upon the release of the results (2QFY11: four sen per share). Hartalega offers both growth and defensiveness with its net dividend yield of 5.3%. Our RM6.80 target price is based on discounted cash flow and it implies just 10.8 times CY12 PER and nine times CY13. ' Maybank IB Research, Nov 8


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, November 9, 2011.

3Q/FY11 results. Below expectations. Maintain Hold Call, with Negative Outlook.

Stock Name: YUNKONG
Company Name: YUNG KONG GALVANISING IND
Research House: MERCURYPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.42



Hektar REIT - 3QFY11 Results - All about yields

Stock Name: HEKTAR
Company Name: HEKTAR REITS
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.50



Affin Research maintains Add to Nestle, TP RM51.95



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 8): Affin Investment Bank Research is maintaining its ADD recommendation for Nestle with an unchanged target price of RM51.95.

It said on Tuesday it was maintaining its FY11-13 net earnings forecasts. It ''continues to advocate Nestle as a defensive stock.

Affin Research cited Nestle's proven track record in effective cost management; high dividend yields of 4%-4.6%; strong growth prospects in the export markets, and the firm position its products have as a household staple.

'Maintain ADD, with a DDM-derived target price of RM51.95. Key risks to the stock are: 1) a sharp slowdown in consumer spending, and; 2) increased volatility in prices of Nestle's key commodities,' it said.

RHB Research has underperform on CSC Steel, FV 90c

Stock Name: CSCSTEL
Company Name: CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.90



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 8): RHB Research Institute has an underperform call on CSC Steel after its nine-month FY2011 net profit came in below expectations.

'We believe the variance vs. our forecast largely came from worse-than-expected margin contraction in 3QFY11 as a result of lower selling prices of its steel products,' it said on Tuesday.

RHB Research said the 3QFY11 net profit plunged 80.8% mainly due lower selling prices amid weak demand for its steel products.

'We are cutting our FY11-13 net profit forecasts by 8% to 32% largely to reflect lower selling prices of its steel products. Indicative fair value is reduced to 90 sen (from 98 sen) based on 7.0 times revised FY12 EPS of 12.9 sen,' it said.

The research house said the saving grace for CSC Steel is its strong balance sheet with net cash position of RM213.5 million, translating to 56 sen a share.