Affin Holdings (HOLD)
Slightly Behind KPIs But Within Expectations
'''' FY12 results in line with HLIB and consensus.''
'''' 4QFY11 qoq boosted by acceleration in loans growth, recovery in NIM and non-interest income, flat overheads and normalization of tax.'' However, these were more than offset by normalization of provision. ''
'''' For FY11, the results were slightly lower than its KPIs but gross impaired loan ratio was in line.
'''' For FY12, HLIB's forecast is slightly below its KPIs albeit still projecting earnings growth.
'''' Asset quality continued to improve.
'''' Tier-1 capital and RWCAR ratios declined but still robust (where Tier-1 is pure equity).
'''' FY12-13 fine-tuned post final results with 0.6-2.3% upward revision.'' Also introduced new FY14 forecast.
'''' Maintain Hold.
'''' Target price raised to RM2.96 (Gordon Growth with ROE at 9.4 and WACC at 11.0%) from RM2.81 post FY11 results.
''
Pos Malaysia (BUY; TP: RM3.20)
In line with our expectation
'''' FY11 core net profit of RM122.2m (+25.4%) came in within our expectation at 95.1% of our forecast. Against the consensus, the results came in slightly below expectations, at 94.8% of consensus estimates. TWS Plant expects RM38m gain from this disposal.
'''' TP of RM3.20 (based on unchanged 13x 2012 EPS of 24.6 sen) maintained. We continue to like Pos Malaysia for: (1) The potential synergistic effect arising from more tie-ups with DRB-Hicom; (2) Its undemanding valuation (discount to Singapore Post's P/E); and (3) Relatively generous dividend payout.''
''
Notion VTec (HOLD)
1QFY12 Results
'''' 1Q12 revenue and EBITDA came in within our expectation due to seasonality and weather abnormalities, accounting for 17% and 18% respectively of our full-year forecasts and 17% and 16% respectively of consensus. Notion VTec also reported a net loss of RM4.8m. This is mainly due to Thai flood affects as we forecast weaker 1H12.
'''' 1QFY12: Revenue RM39.6m (-36.0% yoy, -33.9% qoq), EBITDA RM13.5m (-38.0% yoy, -44.8% qoq) and PATAMI'' 'RM4.8m (-138.7% yoy, -136.1% qoq).
'''' HDD, camera and auto revenues declined qoq by 34.6%, 46.9% and 5.9% respectively.
'''' At the same time, Notion VTec also declared a bonus Issue on the basis of 3 shares for every 4 shares held and also Free Warrants on the basis of 1 Warrant for every 4 Shares held (before the Bonus Issue) to address liquidity issue and reward shareholders.
'''' Reiterate our HOLD call on the equity with unchanged target price of RM2.03.
''
KLCI: More consolidation to Neutralize overbought position
'''' Amid fresh concern of escalating oil prices, the prevailing market consolidation phase may prolong for a little longer but any market pullbacks are likely to be transitory and fairly shallow. Immediate resistance levels are 1570, 1580 and all time high of 1597 whilst supports fall on 1550 psychological level, 14-d SMA (1547), mid Bollinger band (1539) and 30-d SMA (1532).
'''' AIRASIA's medium to long term uptrend remains intact as share prices continue to stay above the 100-d (now at RM3.60), 200-d (RM3.47) SMAs and lower Bollinger band (RM3.53). Although technical readings are showing further consolidations amid volatile markets and its high foreign shareholding, any price weakness is an opportunity to accumulate for potential rebounds later.
'''' A breakout above 50-d SMA (RM3.70) is likely to spur greater upside towards RM3.77 (upper Bollinger band), RM3.89 (50% FR) and RM3.93 (38.2% FR). More significant resistance levels are RM4.04 (23.8% FR) and 52-wk high of RM4.20. Supports are situated near RM3.47-3.67. Cut loss below RM3.47
