January 10, 2012

HLIB Research 10 January 2012 (Construction; Traders Brief; Trading Ideas)

Stock Name: SUNWAY
Company Name: SUNWAY BERHAD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.12

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.81



Construction (OVERWEIGHT)

2012 Outlook: The year for execution

'''' After a good start for the construction sector which peaked in Jan, risk-aversion events led the selldown in the construction sector. Overall, the KLCON Index was down by -13.5%, underperforming the KLCI Index which was up by +0.8%.

'''' As indicated in our "2012 Strategy ' Impact of ETP to Help Fuel Run Up" report, the slowdown in Europe region will see our Government having the urgency to diligently implement the planned ETP projects to buffer the external slowdown as well as to add to the feel good factor due to looming GE. Hence, we forecast growth to accelerate to 10% for the sector in CY2012.

'''' We remain our OVERWEIGHT stance on the sector as we foresee that the ETP projects should materialise in 2012. We maintain our assigned construction P/E of 14x for the larger cap counters and 12x for the mid/smaller cap companies.

'''' Top picks in order of preference:

Sunway (BUY, TP: RM3.12)

Gamuda (BUY, TP: RM3.81)

Mudajaya (BUY, TP: RM4.61)

MRCB (BUY, TP: RM2.22)

''

KLCI: Upside bias

'''' Despite anticipating short term volatility particularly from external headlines, expectations of acceleration of ETP projects, generally positive Chinese New Year (CNY) performance and potential pre-election rally will further augment upward trajectory.

'''' Supports are 10-d SMA (1510), 1501, mid Bollinger band and uptrend line (1490). The rally from its Sep 11 is at stake if the 1490 support is violated. Upside targets are the huge gap within 1529-1546 dated 5 Aug 11.

''

OSK (RM1.82 ' Trading Buy): Positive breakout

'''''''' In anticipation of more newsflow of the tie-up soon, short term technical outlook became more positive following yesterday's breakout above the long term downtrend line since 2011.

'''''''' Resistance levels are RM1.88 (14 Oct high), RM2.00 (23.6% FR) and 52-wk high at RM2.21.

'''''''' Supports are RM1.70-1.75.

'''''''' Cut loss below RM1.70.

''

AIRASIA (RM3.70 ' BUY ON WEAKNESS): Building its base

'''''''' Although there could be further consolidations amid volatile markets and its high foreign shareholding, any price weakness is an opportunity to accumulate for potential rebounds later as technical readings are on the mend.

'''''''' Immediate resistance levels are RM3.76 (50-d SMA), RM3.80 (upper Bollinger band) and RM4.00. Supports are RM3.55-3.60.

'''''''' Cut loss below RM3.55.

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