Company Name: IJM PLANTATIONS BHD
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 2.67 |
Stock Name: GENM
Company Name: GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 4.07 |
Stock Name: MAS
Company Name: MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: SELL | Target Price: 1.19 |
IJM Plantations (Hold; TP: RM2.67)
A pure upstream player
'''' IJMP currently has a total landbank of 78,116ha and a total planted landbank of 38,805ha with an average age of 9.4 years as at 31 Mar 2011.
'''' The bases of our investment case for TSH include:
1.'''' Being one of the pure upstream oil palm plantation players in Malaysia, IJMP stands to be one of the major beneficiaries from higher palm oil prices;
2.'''' Strong balance sheet, with net cash and net cash per share of RM117.3m and 14.6 sen respectively;
3.'''' IJMP's oil palm estates in Indonesia will start contributing significantly from FY03/14 onwards; and
4.'''' Our positive longer-term outlook on the sector.
'''' We are projecting a net profit of RM186.3m, RM173.3m, and RM178.8m in FY03/12, FY03/13, and FY03/14 respectively.
'''' We are initiating coverage on IJMP with a HOLD recommendation and a TP of RM2.67/share based on 13x CY 2012 FD EPS of 20.6 sen.''
''
Genting Malaysia (HOLD)
RWNY To Fully Operate By 16 Dec
'''' According to NY Daily News, Resorts World New York (RWNY) has announced that the Phase 2 will open on 16 Dec (next Friday), two weeks ahead from our assumption. Phase 2 will include the remaining 2,514 VLTs and ETGs, two 250-seat restaurants and a large event space.
'''' RWNY's net win declined marginally to an average of US$562 vs. US$618 during the opening week. However, its net win is still strong against Empire City Casino's (ECC) average net win of US$268. We opined that this is normal in view of novelty effect.
'''' NY Lottery said that most of the cash came from out of state, which underpins our view that RWNY has enlarged the overall market size instead of cannibalizing ECC's performance.
'''' Assuming RWNY were to experience the same historical net win trend as ECC, RWNY could possibly record an average net win of US$531 for 2011 and US$408 for 2012. RWNY may hit its bottom at US$321 when its novelty effect wears off.
'''' By factoring in such net win to RWNY vs. our assumption of US$300, our FY11-13 forecasts and target price would be raised by 1.2-4.9% and 3.2% respectively.
'''' EPS for FY11 increased 2% to account for earlier opening of Phase 2 but FY12-13 remained unchanged as we kept out conservative net win assumption of US$300.
'''' Target price remain unchanged at RM4.07. Maintain HOLD.
''
MAS (SELL)
Remain Skeptical on Outlook
'''' MAS unveiled its Business Recovery Plan to position MAS as the Preferred Premium Carrier, by focusing on 5 steps:
1.'' Cut network capacities and focus on profitable routes;
2.'' Improve customer experience to win back market share;
3.'' Manage unit costs down to improve margin;
4.'' Focus on core airline business, while ancillary activities likely to be "spin off"; and
5.'' Ensure the delivery of new aircrafts (23 units in 2012).
'''' MAS targets to improve profits by RM1.2-1.5bn at airline level and RM1.1-1.5bn at group level. Eventually MAS's 2012 group profit is expected to range between 'RM165m to +RM238m.
'''' The funding of RM6bn new aircraft deliveries had almost been fully secured. MAS will be using combinations of new debts and leasing arrangements.
'''' We remain skeptical on MAS overall turnaround plan, which aimed to achieve breakevens in 2012 for:
1.'' Sketchy guidelines and timelines provided on the turnaround plan;
2.'' Ability of MAS to increase ticket prices without sacrificing passenger demand.
3.'' Relatively long timeline needed to change passenger perception and preference;
4.'' The readiness of staffs to accept the new structures.
5.'' Economy slow down, affecting premium travel demand.
'''' Target price remain unchanged at RM1.19.
''
KLCI: Cautious as the EU summit begins today''
'''' Technically, the KLCI is consolidating well above the crucial supports of mid Bollinger band (1465) and 100-day SMA (1470) levels.'' A breakdown below 1465 support will accelerate more selling pressures towards 50-d SMA (1442) with the current rebound from Nov 23's low of 1423 facing exhaustion. Immediate resistance remains at 200-d SMA (1503).
''
DIGISTAR: Poised for a triangle breakout
'''' Listed in 2003, Digistar is poised to breakout from its huge triangle pattern and is ripe for a stronger rebound. As technical indicators are on the mend, prices should take out the RM0.50 psychological level soon. Once this level is taken out, the next resistance targets are RM0.535 (52-wk high), RM0.57 (123.6% FR) and RM0.60 (138.2% FR). Cut loss below RM0.40 (200-d SMA).
'''' For cheaper exposure, investors can consider Digistar-WA.
No comments:
Post a Comment