December 19, 2011

HLIB Research 19 Dec 2011 (Boustead; Gamuda; Traders Brief) (Part 1/2)

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.81



Boustead Holdings (BUY)

RM9bn PV Contract Finalized

'''' Received LoA from Ministry of Defense to deliver 6 patrol vessels (PV) with the first PV in 2017 and at 6 months interval thereafter.'' Contract value has a ceiling of RM9bn.

'''' Positive surprise vs. our RM7bn assumption but keeping our forecasts, pending further details from management.

'''' Our envisaged catalyst has materialized and vindicated our positive view on the stock.

'''' The contract would keep its heavy industry division busy over the next 9 years.''

'''' It will also help BHIC to mitigate losses suffered from the vacuum in jobs and cost escalation.

'''' Maintain Buy with unchanged target price of RM6.50 based on 10% holding company discount to estimated SOP of RM7.23.

''

Gamuda (BUY)

1Q results, a strong start

'''' 1QFY12 earnings grew by 49% YoY (+5% QoQ) to RM132m (6.41 sen/share), beating consensus numbers by 13% but within our expectation. Strong earnings performance was driven by margins expansion in both the construction and property division.

'''' Overall, construction order book dwindled to ~RM2bn (~RM1.9bn from EDTP), translating to ~1.1x FY11 construction revenue, while unbilled sales stood at ~RM1.2bn, translating to ~1.7x FY11 property revenue.

'''' We continue to feel confident that Gamuda has the edge in winning the MRT project given their tunnelling expertise in karstic limestone formation, project is funded by GoM hence preference for local contractors, and a pricing advantage of up to 7.5% over the closest rival bid.

'''' We maintain our BUY call on Gamuda with a TP of RM3.81 as we believe that negatives have been fully priced in and more upside to gain going forward.

''

KLCI: Window dressing activities to cushion external swings''

For the next two weeks, Bursa Malaysia's trading volume is expected to be low, with many market players taking time off ahead of the holidays, as low trading volume tends to exaggerate swings in the market. Immediate crucial support is the 50-d SMA or uptrend line (1456), followed by last week's low at 1448. A breakdown of 1448 would mean thatthe rally from 1311 low (Sep 26) is likely exhausted and will head toward lower Bollinger band (1425) and 61.8% FR (1420) supports. Resistance levels are 10-d SMA (1471), 38.2% FR (1487) and 200-d SMA (1502).

GAMUDA: Buy on weakness for medium term upside''''

'''' Despite near-term downside bias due to the violation of triangle support, investors should capitalize any weakness to accumulate as the fall is likely to be well-supported by its 6sen interim dividend and overall more bullish view on construction sector in 2012. Strong support is near lower Bollinger band at RM2.90. Immediate resistance levels are RM3.11-3.35, followed by the 200-d SMA near RM3.46. Cut loss below RM2.88.

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