October 20, 2011

HLIB Research 20 October 2011 (Mah Sing; Tenaga; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: MAHSING
Company Name: MAH SING GROUP BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.16

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.10



Mah Sing (BUY)

2011 sales target achieved

'''' Mah Sing has sold out the retail portion of M City (RM117m GDV, 24 units) within two weeks of launching, and will now proceed to launch Block 2 of the residential portion, which we estimate to have GDV of ~RM494m.'' Pricing likely to be north of RM1,000 psf.''

'''' Assuming 30% takeup for Residential Tower 1 this year and 70% takeup by next year, this would lift our FY12-13 earnings by forecast by 3-10%.

'''' Mah Sing have now achieved their RM2bn sales target for 2011. We expect a high likelihood of more land acquisitions before year-end, in the Klang Valley outskirts with affordable housing concept similar to M Residence @ Rawang.

'''' We adjust our PT slightly from RM2.14 to RM2.16 (unchanged 20% discount to RNAV), as we tweak our numbers for M City.'' Maintain BUY.

''

Tenaga (HOLD)

TNB to report Loss in FY12?

'''' TNB CEO warned that TNB may report a loss in FY12 if the natural gas supply shortage situation is not resolved.

'''' Datuk Khalib also stressed "TNB is getting only 900mmscfd, lower than the agreed allocation of 1,350mmscfd from Petronas".

'''' TNB has to incur additional cost of RM400m a month for using alternative fuels (oils and distillate).

'''' Furthermore, there is high risk of government delaying the tariff review, which is scheduled on Dec 2011, as the government is set to ease the burden of Malaysian high living cost.

'''' However, we do expect natural gas supplies to improve in FY12 from the current level.

'''' Maintain Hold with target price of RM5.10 (based on DCFE). To be reviewed pending result announcement on 28 Oct 2011.

''

KLCI: Range bound trade ahead of EU Summit

'''' Global markets will remain volatile ahead of the crucial 23 Oct EU Summit as well as 3-4 Nov, when the G20 nations gather to consider additional steps to stabilize the global financial system.

'''' We continue to advocate risk-averse investors to sell into strength or trim positions.'' Stiff resistance zones are at 1470-1490 pts. Support levels are 1413-1434 levels.

ULICORP: Poised for a technical rebound''

'''' As technical readings are on the mend from its grossly oversold positions, ULICORP is poised to retest RM0.85 (50% FR) before heading further towards stiff resistance at RM0.90 (200-d SMA) with the next upside target is RM0.99 (50-d SMA).

'''' Immediate support levels are RM0.725 and crucial head & shoulder neckline near RM0.66. Cut loss below RM0.66.

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