Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Gamuda Bhd
(Sept 12, RM2.90)
Maintain buy at RM3.03 with revised target price of RM4.10 (from RM4.45): Gamuda's final results, due on Sept 29, should meet expectation for record profit in FY11. We forecast FY12 to be another record year, on strong domestic property sales locked in. Nonetheless, we have tweaked our FY12/FY13 net profit forecasts by 1% after factoring in a lower sales forecast for the Vietnam property projects. We also reduce our realisable net asset value (RNAV)-based target price to RM4.10 (- 8%) after adjusting for lowered gross development values (GDVs) for the Vietnam projects and other housekeeping. The stock remains our top pick in construction.
Profit for FY11 should grow a strong 47% to 48% year-on-year (y-o-y) based on the house estimate of RM416 million and street's RM414 million (9MFY11A: RM299 million net profit, +27% y-o-y. For 4Q net profit is likely in the RM115 million to RM117 million region, flattish quarter-on-quarter (3Q: RM117 million) but up over 50% y-o-y. Key drivers would be construction margin expansion on further advancement of Yen So Park infrastructure in Hanoi, Vietnam, and double-tracking rail works. Property rode on strong RM820 million sales in FY10 (+64% y-o-y) and a record RM1.32 billion sales in FY11 (+61% y-o-y).
The target for property sales in Vietnam has been halved to RM650 million from RM1.5 billion for FY12, and to RM1.1 billion from RM2.12 billion for FY13. Celadon City's soft launch in June saw just 20% take-up to date (for 250 apartment units). Gamuda City (Hanoi) is targeting a soft launch in October. Projected GDVs have also been lowered due to the devalued dong ' to RM9 billion from RM10 billion for Gamuda City, and to RM5 billion from RM6 billion for Celadon City.
Gamuda was not spared the August market selldown with the share price down 19% month-on-month (-20% year-to-date). The stock has fallen below its mean valuation ' at three times below its mean of 16.5 times on forward earnings. It is looking attractive again, trading at 13.4 times one-year forward earnings, a 17% discount to our revised RNAV estimate of RM3.65 before imputing the MRT project and 26% below our target price of RM4.10 cum-MRT. We remain confident of sizeable job wins to lift its order book beyond the outstanding RM2.7 billion (ex-Nam Theun 1). ' Maybank IB Research, Sept 12
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 13, 2011.
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
| Research House: MAYBANK | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 4.10 |
Gamuda Bhd
(Sept 12, RM2.90)
Maintain buy at RM3.03 with revised target price of RM4.10 (from RM4.45): Gamuda's final results, due on Sept 29, should meet expectation for record profit in FY11. We forecast FY12 to be another record year, on strong domestic property sales locked in. Nonetheless, we have tweaked our FY12/FY13 net profit forecasts by 1% after factoring in a lower sales forecast for the Vietnam property projects. We also reduce our realisable net asset value (RNAV)-based target price to RM4.10 (- 8%) after adjusting for lowered gross development values (GDVs) for the Vietnam projects and other housekeeping. The stock remains our top pick in construction.
Profit for FY11 should grow a strong 47% to 48% year-on-year (y-o-y) based on the house estimate of RM416 million and street's RM414 million (9MFY11A: RM299 million net profit, +27% y-o-y. For 4Q net profit is likely in the RM115 million to RM117 million region, flattish quarter-on-quarter (3Q: RM117 million) but up over 50% y-o-y. Key drivers would be construction margin expansion on further advancement of Yen So Park infrastructure in Hanoi, Vietnam, and double-tracking rail works. Property rode on strong RM820 million sales in FY10 (+64% y-o-y) and a record RM1.32 billion sales in FY11 (+61% y-o-y).
The target for property sales in Vietnam has been halved to RM650 million from RM1.5 billion for FY12, and to RM1.1 billion from RM2.12 billion for FY13. Celadon City's soft launch in June saw just 20% take-up to date (for 250 apartment units). Gamuda City (Hanoi) is targeting a soft launch in October. Projected GDVs have also been lowered due to the devalued dong ' to RM9 billion from RM10 billion for Gamuda City, and to RM5 billion from RM6 billion for Celadon City.
Gamuda was not spared the August market selldown with the share price down 19% month-on-month (-20% year-to-date). The stock has fallen below its mean valuation ' at three times below its mean of 16.5 times on forward earnings. It is looking attractive again, trading at 13.4 times one-year forward earnings, a 17% discount to our revised RNAV estimate of RM3.65 before imputing the MRT project and 26% below our target price of RM4.10 cum-MRT. We remain confident of sizeable job wins to lift its order book beyond the outstanding RM2.7 billion (ex-Nam Theun 1). ' Maybank IB Research, Sept 12
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 13, 2011.
No comments:
Post a Comment