Stock Name: JTIASA
Company Name: JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMB
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd
(March 15, RM4.87)
Upgrade to buy with revised fair value RM6.30 (from RM5.61): We are upgrading Ta Ann Holdings Bhd to a 'buy' from 'hold' previously, with a raised fair value to RM6.30 (from RM5.61 previously) pegging an upward revised FY11F earnings per share of 42 sen to an unchanged fair price-earnings ratio of 15 times . We maintain our 'buy' call on Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd, with a fair value of RM6, premised on an unchanged fair PER of 15 times against its FY11F EPS of 40 sen per share.
The upgrade is premised on the anticipated surge in demand, and more importantly higher prices, for plywood in the wake of Japan's worst earthquake, which devastated a large swath of land along the country's northeastern coastline. Ta Ann exports over 90% of its plywood products to Japan. Consequentially, log prices are also expected to strengthen.
Many of the country's plywood and wood-based mills are located in the cities of Sendai and Ishinomaki in the Miyagi Prefecture, which was one of the worst hit areas by the ensuing tsunamis that reached heights of up to 10m. It is believed that many of the plywood facilities were destroyed. This is apart from the thousands of buildings, including homes, which were wiped out.
According to the Japan External Trade Organisation (TETO), Miyagi is home to numerous saw mills and chip plants that use the prefecture's inland timber resources. According to TETO, 'the Ishinomaki region in particular boasts of the largest agglomeration of plywood manufacturing plants in Japan, as well as paper factories based in the vicinity of the Port of Ishinomaki, an important transport hub, while the Iwanuma region is the home of numerous paper factories, and so on'. Judging by the extent of the damage, no industry, including Japan's timber enterprises, has escaped unscathed.
In our alert last Friday in the immediate aftermath of the disaster, we reported that timber players are expecting a probable steady rise in demand of wood. Given the massive scale of the devastation, we now believe demand is bound to pick up, though not in the immediate term, given the uphill task in the clean-up.
We raise Ta Ann's FY11F net profit by 11% to RM107 million from RM96 million previously, while tweaking FY12F's earnings by 4% to RM127 million from RM122 million previously. The revisions translate into EPS of 42 and 49 sen for FY11F and FY12F respectively. On the downside, Ta Ann is still hampered by operating losses at its Tasmania veneer manufacturing facilities.
We maintain our 'buy' rating on Jaya Tiasa with an unchanged fair value of RM6. Though it will most certainly benefit as well if demand and prices were to pick up, its exposure to Japan accounts for less than 10% of both its total logs and plywood exports. ' AmResearch, March 15
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 16, 2011.
Company Name: JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMB
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd
(March 15, RM4.87)
Upgrade to buy with revised fair value RM6.30 (from RM5.61): We are upgrading Ta Ann Holdings Bhd to a 'buy' from 'hold' previously, with a raised fair value to RM6.30 (from RM5.61 previously) pegging an upward revised FY11F earnings per share of 42 sen to an unchanged fair price-earnings ratio of 15 times . We maintain our 'buy' call on Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd, with a fair value of RM6, premised on an unchanged fair PER of 15 times against its FY11F EPS of 40 sen per share.
The upgrade is premised on the anticipated surge in demand, and more importantly higher prices, for plywood in the wake of Japan's worst earthquake, which devastated a large swath of land along the country's northeastern coastline. Ta Ann exports over 90% of its plywood products to Japan. Consequentially, log prices are also expected to strengthen.
Many of the country's plywood and wood-based mills are located in the cities of Sendai and Ishinomaki in the Miyagi Prefecture, which was one of the worst hit areas by the ensuing tsunamis that reached heights of up to 10m. It is believed that many of the plywood facilities were destroyed. This is apart from the thousands of buildings, including homes, which were wiped out.
According to the Japan External Trade Organisation (TETO), Miyagi is home to numerous saw mills and chip plants that use the prefecture's inland timber resources. According to TETO, 'the Ishinomaki region in particular boasts of the largest agglomeration of plywood manufacturing plants in Japan, as well as paper factories based in the vicinity of the Port of Ishinomaki, an important transport hub, while the Iwanuma region is the home of numerous paper factories, and so on'. Judging by the extent of the damage, no industry, including Japan's timber enterprises, has escaped unscathed.
In our alert last Friday in the immediate aftermath of the disaster, we reported that timber players are expecting a probable steady rise in demand of wood. Given the massive scale of the devastation, we now believe demand is bound to pick up, though not in the immediate term, given the uphill task in the clean-up.
We raise Ta Ann's FY11F net profit by 11% to RM107 million from RM96 million previously, while tweaking FY12F's earnings by 4% to RM127 million from RM122 million previously. The revisions translate into EPS of 42 and 49 sen for FY11F and FY12F respectively. On the downside, Ta Ann is still hampered by operating losses at its Tasmania veneer manufacturing facilities.
We maintain our 'buy' rating on Jaya Tiasa with an unchanged fair value of RM6. Though it will most certainly benefit as well if demand and prices were to pick up, its exposure to Japan accounts for less than 10% of both its total logs and plywood exports. ' AmResearch, March 15
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, March 16, 2011.
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