Company Name: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
| Research House: MIDF | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.66 |
This Blog provides Price Targets from Research House covering companies listed in the Bursa Malaysia stock market exchange. You can search and find all the past Price Targets of companies by searching within this Blog. Please note that the Price Targets are provided from various Research Houses for reference purpose only. They do not constitute a Buy or Sell recommendation.
| Research House: MIDF | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.66 |
| Research House: TA | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 1.94 |
| Research House: TA | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.15 |
| Research House: MIDF | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.83 |
| Research House: MIDF | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.60 |
| Research House: JUPITER | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.06 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.23 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 6.54 |
| Research House: MAYBANK | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 2.05 |
| Research House: HWANGDBS | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 2.20 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.23 |
| Research House: CIMB | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.80 |
| Research House: AMMB | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 2.05 |
| Research House: MIDF | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.20 |
| Research House: TA | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.12 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 2.23 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 6.50 |
| Research House: HLG | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 5.54 |
Power (Neutral)
Remain Burdened by Gas Issue
'''' Expect Malaysia Power demand to increase by 4.0% in 2012, underpinned by 4.5% GDP growth.
'''' Tenaga is expected to continue burdened (~RM3.3bn) by high alternative fuel cost, until Melaka regassification facility commences by Aug-Sept 2012.
'''' Unclear fuel cost pass-through mechanism (as tariff revision schedule remain uncertain while final decision on the rat still within government's hand) continue to drag Tenaga.
'''' No more PPA renegotiation (direct negotiation), where all new PPAs will be awarded through tendering system, will'' give advantage to Tenaga and disadvantage to YTL Power.
'''' We are maintaining our Neutral rating on the overall power sector, given Tenaga's larger market captialization vis-a-vis YTL Power. Maintain Buy on YTL Power with lower TP of RM2.23 and Hold on Tenaga with higher TP of RM6.50.
''
Sukuk and Broadband Tax Incentive
'''' In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, Maxis proposed to establish an Unrated Islamic MTN Programme with an aggregate value of up to RM2.45bn and tenure of 30 years from the date of first issue of the sukuk.
'''' First issuance of the sukuk is for RM2.45bn with maturity of 10 years for refinancing (RM1.45bn), CAPEX / working capital and other general purposes (RM1bn).
'''' Similar to DiGi, Maxis also announced that it enjoys last mile broadband tax incentive of total RM320m.
'''' Comments: The consolidated gearing will increase from 0.63x to 0.75x on proforma basis, based on 2010 audited accounts.
'''' The tax benefit is perceived to be positive to Maxis relieving NGBB's front-loaded high CAPEX and cost. After some channel checking, Maxis NGBB business is not "flying" as Maxis has only managed to secure about 4,000 subscribers to date.
'''' Tax incentive of RM97m for 9M11 translates into 23% effective tax rate (vs assumed tax rate of 26%) and directly boost earnings for FY11. We have assumed 23% for FY12 and FY13 as well.
'''' Tax credit in respect of prior years is assumed to further reduce tax by RM44.6m for FY12-FY16.
'''' Updated forecast with above mentioned assumptions. As a result, EPS for FY11 to FY13 are revised upward by 8.8%, 4.1% and 1.2% respectively.
'''' We upgraded our DD-derived TP by 2.8% to RM5.54 from RM5.39 with WACC of 7.5% and TG of 0%.
''
Tradewinds Plantation (Buy; TP: RM5.04)
Disposes stake in rubber trading house
'''' TWS Plant disposed its 45% stake in R1 International Pte Ltd via Mardec (a wholly-owned subsidiary) for US$25.9m (RM79.1m).
'''' TWS Plant expects RM38m gain from this disposal.
'''' Positive, as the disposal releases Mardec from its existing contractual obligations to trade exclusively through R1, and allows Mardec to unlock its value of its investment in R1.'' We note that the disposal is in line with TWS Plant's strategy in Mardec, i.e. to improve its plant' utilization rate and procurement efficiency.''
'''' TP maintained at RM5.04 (based on 11x 2012 FD core EPS of 45.8 sen). Despite the potential total return of only 9.3%, we are keeping our BUY recommendation on the stock for now.
''
'''' Overnight Dow's rally is expected to lift our market to stay above the crucial 1550 psychological support This level is crucial for sustainability as a close below would likely confirm a reversal and send the index back towards lower supports near 14-d SMA (1542), mid Bollinger band (1535) and 30-d SMA or uptrend line at 1529.
'''' Immediate resistance levels are situated at 7-d SMA (1560), 15 Feb's high of 1567 and upper Bollinger band (1574).
''
OLDTOWN: More upside if 30-d SMA resistance is broken''''''
'''' The pullback from 52-wk high of RM1.40 (July 2011) appears to be at its tail end, as prices have been consolidating above the 50% FR (RM1.14), supported by its oversold slow Stochastics. Further strong support can be found near 38.2% FR (RM1.08) and RM1.00 (23.6% FR).
'''' Buyers may start to nibble as hourly chart indicators are showing signs of bottoming up. A strong breakout above 30-d SMA (RM1.26) will spur greater upside towards RM1.32 (upper Bollinger band) and RM1.40. Significant resistance is 123.6% FR at RM1.52. Cut loss below RM1.13.
| Research House: HWANGDBS | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 7.00 |
| Research House: HWANGDBS | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 16.90 |
| Research House: HWANGDBS | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 2.20 |
| Research House: RHB | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.70 |
| Research House: RHB | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 4.50 |
| Top Story |
| Plantation ' Demand unlikely to fall off the cliff Overweight Sector Update - Malaysia's CPO production fell by 8.2% mom in Dec, while exports fell by a slightly smaller 4.5% mom. On a yoy basis, production rose by 21.3% yoy in Dec (+11.3% 2011), while exports rose by 23.1% yoy in Dec (+7.9% 2011). As a result, closing CPO stock levels fell by 1.5% mom to 2.04m tonnes in Dec (from 2.07m tonnes in Nov). We are now well and truly in the low season for CPO, although we suspect the slowdown in production was exacerbated by the wetter-than-usual weather patterns. As a result of the lower CPO stock levels, the stock/usage ratio in Dec fell to 10.36% (down from 10.5% in Nov and up from 8.7% in Dec 2010). - Related story: Plantation Sector Update ' Risk Of Crop Losses Rising? (3 Jan 2012) Timber ' Jaya Tiasa and Ta Ann to benefit from plantation Neutral Sector Update - Given the recent rally in the plantation sector, we believe this will likely spur investors' interest in quasi plantation stocks. While Jaya Tiasa and Ta Ann are generally perceived as timber companies, earnings profile for Jaya Tiasa and Ta Ann have actually transformed considerably over the years, with more than 70% of earnings likely to be contributed by the plantation divisions going forward. - Related story: Timber Sector Update ' Plywood Inventory In Japan Continues To De-stock (4 Jan 2012) |
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| Corporate Highlights |
| YTL Power ' Just Chugging Along Market Perform Visit Note - Not much clarity on the future outlook on dividends by management. Besides WiMAX losses, management attributed the recent decision to cut dividends on preparation for potential M&A. - Lacks catalysts due to more delays in launching Android-based smartphones for Yes and feasibility study not yet done for the Jordan oil shale project. - Maintain Market Perform with unchanged fair value of RM1.70. - Related story: Utilities Sector Update ' A Potentially Bumpy Ride (20 Dec 2011); YTL Power Results Note ' Dividends Cut (18 Nov 2011) Top Glove ' Tail winds taking shape? Market Perform (Upgraded) Briefing Note - On the whole, management appeared rather positive on the prospects ahead as two key factors, i.e. forex rates and latex prices, appear to be trending favourably. Given how latex prices have trended in recent weeks, management appeared more optimistic and now thinks latex prices could ease further and stabilise towards the RM6.00/kg mark over the next 3-6 months. - Related story: Top Glove Results Note ' Below Expectations (19 Dec 2011); Rubber Glove Sector Update - Outbreak Of Bird Flu In Hong Kong (23 Dec 2011) SapuraCrest ' New subsea construction contract Outperform News Update - Yesterday, the company announced that its JV, SapuraAcergy, has been awarded a contract for a subsea construction project, offshore Vietnam , understandably from Subsea 7. The project is worth US$100m (c. RM310m) and is expected to be performed in mid 2012. - We are positive on the win as it is in-line with Sapuracrest's goal of enhancing its international revenue contribution. We maintain our fair value of RM4.50/share and Outperform call on the stock. We forsee the company being a large formidable entity post its merger with Kencana expected to be completed by Feb-12. - Related story: Oil and Gas Sector Update - Resilient Despite Macroeconomic Uncertainties (12 Dec 2011) |
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| Macro |
| IPI ' Softened In November, Real GDP Growth Will Likely Weaken In The 4Q Economic Highlights (published 10 Jan 2012) - Industrial production softened to 1.8% yoy in Nov, the lowest in four months, after easing to a revised +2.9% in Oct, from +3.0% in Sep mainly due to a slowdown in manufacturing production on slowing external demand and disruption to the supply chain caused by Thailand's flood. - This suggests that real GDP growth will likely weaken to 4.8% yoy in the 4Q. Going forward, we expect real GDP growth to slow down to 3.6% in 2012, from +5.0% estimated for 2011. |
| Research House: UBS | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 1.90 |
| Research House: ECMLIBRA | Price Call: HOLD | Target Price: 1.70 |
| Research House: MAYBANK | Price Call: BUY | Target Price: 1.80 |