Continued focus on Indonesian estates

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.16

CPO and FFB output continued rising

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.40

Research house raises TSH target price to RM3.70

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MAYBANK

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 3.70

MAYBANK Investment Bank (Maybank IB) has revised upwards TSH Resources Bhd's valuation to "buy" from "hold" after the company's first-half performance outperformed the investment bank's expectation.

The bank also increased TSH's target price to RM3.70 from RM3.40 previously.

Maybank IB said TSH's second quarter core net profit surged 107 per cent to RM45 million year-on-year (YoY), bringing the first half core net profit to RM85 million or 59 per cent of the bank's full-year estimates.

The bank said the better-than-expected performance was mainly attributed to lower-than-expected cost of production per tonne and above expectation fresh fruit bunches (FFB) output (up four per cent quarter-on-quarter and 34 per cent YoY), driven by its young Indonesian estates.

Also contributing to the better results was the lower-than-expected tax expense due to tax incentives in respect of its pioneer and bionexus status, it said.

Maybank IB said TSH's first half FFB output growth of 28 per cent YoY was significantly above the bank's 2014 growth forecast of 20 per cent.

"Buoyed by its young tree age profile, TSH will deliver strong double-digit production growth, buffering weakness in crude palm oil price," it said. Bernama

TSH - Acquiring more land in Sabah

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.50

TSH - Reported earnings boosted by the sale of Pontian stake

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.50

TSH - Waiting game

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.50

TSH - 2QFY13 - Results Review

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.50

The coming of age story

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.14

TSH - 1HFY12 - Result - Review

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.24

Kenanga Research: "Outperform" call on TSH

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: KENANGA

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.50

Kenanga Research started Malaysian plantation firm TSH Resources Bhd with an outperform call on expectations of strong palm oil output growth and higher production efficiency.

Kenanga pegged a target price of RM2.50 (US$0.78) per share on the plantation firm, which it called one of Malaysia's most efficient planters.

It also said it positive on TSH's steady FY2012-2013 fresh fruit bunch growth of 19-25 per cent. The company has yet to utilise 69 per cent of its total plantation land, according to Kenanga.

"TSH's key earnings catalysts are better than expected crude palm oil prices and higher than expected fresh fruit bunch growth," said Kenanga in a research note to clients.

Kenanga said immediate risks faced by TSH include a sustained drop in crude palm oil prices and unexpected hikes in fertiliser and labour costs. -- Reuters

TSH Resources (TSH MK, BUY, FV RM2.65, Last Close: RM2.53)

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: OSK

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.65

TSH Resources (TSH) joined us in hitting the road inSingapore recently to meet 9 institutional funds. FFB production growth wasspectacular last year, surging by more than 40% y-o-y, with its youngIndonesian estates being the key growth  driver.Management is looking to quicken the pace of new planting over the next fewyears and also  shed light on  why the company  is further expanding in Kalimantan.TSH continues to have one of the best tree age profiles, with 75.0% of itstrees below peak. Maintain BUY, with FV of RM2.65.

Planted area reaches30,521 ha. TSH planted on 2,584 ha in 2011, which was slower than  the aggressive 3.1k to 5.2k ha  it covered annually  between 2006  and 2009. Planting has been slow over the past two years as the company  endeavoured to keep its net gearing(calculated  based on total equityinstead of shareholders' equity) below the 0.8x needed to maintain its AA- credit rating  from MARC. A drop to an A rating would see the company's borrowing cost riseby as much as 1 ppt from the current 4+%. With this ratio now having trendedlower to 0.71x, the company is looking to plant 4k ha of palms and 1k ha ofrubber annually,  which  translate into a 10%-13%  growth  in  oilpalm planted areas over the next 3 years. The company will continue to enlargeits 94,003 ha landbank in Indonesia, of which only  27.8% is planted, beforegood Kalimantan land becomes scarce and expensive.

Age profile primedfor growth spurt. With over 21.8k ha planted since 2006, 75.0% of TSH'strees are below peak production age, making it the 5^th mostfavourable tree age profile within  our18-stock plantation universe. Of the  total area planted,47.5%  has immature  trees - the highest within our Malaysian plantation coverage. Indonesia representedonly 42.2% of the company's planted area at the turn of the millennium but this  has risen to 85.5%. The archipelago  nation was the driver last year, with FFB production surging 59.4% compared toan overall FFB production growth of 43.2%.

Becoming less  Malaysian. Indonesia will continue to beTSH's key growth  engine given its youngtree profile (87.7%  of  trees below peak) while Sabah should see decliningproduction (0.5% of trees below peak). Management forecasts the firm's FFB productionwill grow by 21.4% in 2012 while we expect a weaker but still commendable growthof 18.2%. We gather from management that as the heavy rainfall during the firsttwo months of the year had affected harvesting, 1Q production should thus berelatively weak, although it may bounce back in 2Q.

Source: OSK188

Result Note - TSH - 24 Feb 2012

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: JUPITER

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.88

4Q FY2011 Results
Within expectations. TSH's FY11 results were in line
with consensus and our estimates. 12-month revenues at
RM1.148b made up of 96% of our full year target and PBT
of RM162.4m almost made up of our full year estimate.
For the full year under review, revenues grew 26% while
operating profit rose 46% to RM166.9m. EPS of 14.7sen
was lower than its previous year of 20.6sen on an
enlarged share capital after its 1:1 bonus issue. Overall,
higher earnings were attributable to higher CPO prices
and better FFB production on improved yield management
as well as higher mature acreages in Indonesia. During
the year, FFB production increased by 43% to 399,604MT.
The Wood products division continue to register a loss on
sluggish demand from US and Europe. The Cocoamanufacturing
division reported lower profits on lower
production and unfavourable cocoa butter prices.
On a QoQ basis, despite 7% higher revenues of
RM292.9m, the bottomline was lower than in 3Q on the
lower CPO prices following the trend in FFB production
cycle. PBT fell 36% to RM30.1m and net profits of
RM26.1m was 24% lower than last quarter's RM34.5m.
The lower PBT was also due to provision of doubtful debts
in the wood products division.

Recommendation
We continue to view TSH with favour, as it can bank on
improvements in efficiency in plantation division and
higher crop production from its Indonesia estates. We are
introducing our 2013 projections. We applied a two-stage
DDM valuation model for TSH, as we expect high growth
in the coming years when more palms come into maturity
in Indonesia. We have tweaked our target price upwards
to RM2.88. BUY recommendation maintained.

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 24 Feb 2012

TSH Resources - BUY FV RM2.88

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: JUPITER

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.88

4Q FY2011 Results 

Within expectations. TSH's FY11 results were inline with consensus and our estimates. 12-month revenues at RM1.148b made up of 96% of our full year target andPBT of RM162.4m almost made up of our full year estimate. For the full yearunder review, revenues grew 26% while operating profit rose 46% toRM166.9m.  EPS of 14.7sen was lower thanits previous year of 20.6sen on an enlarged share capital after its 1:1 bonusissue.  Overall, higher earnings wereattributable to higher CPO prices and better FFB production on improved yieldmanagement as well as higher mature acreages in Indonesia.  During the year, FFB production increased by43% to 399,604MT. The Wood products division continue to registera loss on sluggish demand from US and Europe. The Cocoamanufacturing division reported lower profits on lower productionand unfavourable cocoa butter prices.  

On a QoQ basis, despite 7% higher revenues of RM292.9m,the bottomline was lower than in 3Q on the lower CPO prices following the trendin FFB production cycle.  PBT fell 36% toRM30.1m and net profits of RM26.1m was 24% lower than last quarter's RM34.5m. Thelower PBT was also due to provision of doubtful debts in the wood productsdivision. 

Recommendation

We continue to view TSH with favour, as it canbank  on improvements in efficiency inplantation division and higher crop production from its Indonesia estates.  We are introducing our 2013 projections.  We applied a two-stage DDM valuation modelfor TSH, as we expect high growth in the coming years when more palms come intomaturity in Indonesia.  We have tweakedour target price upwards to RM2.88.  BUYrecommendation maintained.

Source: Jupiter Securities

HLIB Research 23 Feb 2012 (WCT; SP Setia; AirAsia; MISC; IJM; TSH; Lafarge; KLK; IJM Plant.; Economics; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: IJMPLNT
Company Name: IJM PLANTATIONS BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: SELL

Target Price: 2.80

Stock Name: KLK
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: SELL

Target Price: 21.03

Stock Name: LMCEMNT
Company Name: LAFARGE MALAYAN CEMENT BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 7.11

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 2.13

Stock Name: IJM
Company Name: IJM CORPORATION BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 5.77

Stock Name: MISC
Company Name: MISC BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 5.57

Stock Name: AIRASIA
Company Name: AIRASIA BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 4.50

Stock Name: SPSETIA
Company Name: SP SETIA BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: HOLD

Target Price: 3.95

Stock Name: WCT
Company Name: WCT BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.98

WCT (BUY)

Nursing back the order book

'' WCT has secured a RM331m contract from Riverson Corporation S/B for the construction of a mixed commercial development which is expected to be completed by Aug-14.

'' YTD, WCT has secured RM632m worth of projects and outstanding order book has been lifted to ~RM3.0bn, translating to ~1.9x FY10's construction revenue and ~1.4x order book-to-market cap ratio.

'' With 2 successive contract wins in a month, returning interest into the stock may act as an upside catalyst. We maintain our BUY call on WCT with at TP of RM2.98.

''

SP Setia (HOLD)

Revised Takeover Offer Document Released

'' SP Setia has officially released the revised joint-offer document, with a firm timeline for the acceptances, with March 14^th being the deadline.

'' Key salient points remain unchanged ' (1) Tan Sri Liew will still be given a free hand to govern SP Setia, (2) The company's listed status will be maintained, with a minimum 25% public spread, and (3) Tan Sri Liew still retains his 3-year Put Option on his 8% stake at RM3.95 per share.

'' Maintain HOLD and target price of RM3.95, which is the revised offer price.

''

AirAsia (BUY)

Spreading Wings in 2012

'''' Reported 4Q11 core net profit of RM279.7m, leading to FY11 core profit of RM725.2m, in line with our forecast of RM718.2m and consensus's RM744.7m.

'''' FY11's average ticket prices dropped 5.1% yoy on the back of strong competition from Firefly. We expect yield to improve in FY12, given Firefly has stopped operation since Nov 2011 while MAS is in the midst of cutting its capacity.

'''' Management indicated forward bookings remain strong for Malaysia and Indonesia units, while Thailand is catching up.

'''' Management is bullish with Japan and Philippines JV. Japan AirAsia is targeted to make profit within its 1st year operation, while Philippines AirAsia within 2nd year operation.

'''' Net gearing continued to improve to 1.4x in FY11 vs 1.7x in FY10.

'''' Hedged 27% of 1H12 fuel requirement at US$120/bbl (jet kerosene).

'''' Maintain BUY with unchanged Target Price of RM4.50.

''

MISC (HOLD)

Thirsty for Turnarounds

'''' Reported 3Q FY12/11 core earnings of RM14.7m, taking 9M FY12/11 core earning to RM272.5m, in line with HLIB's RM283.1m, but higher than consensus estimates of losses.

'''' Petroleum, Chemical and Liner divisions continued to report losses due to low volumes, low charter rates and high bunker costs. Bunker price had increased to US$750/mt level.

'''' Management continued to guide gloomy outlook for Petroleum and Chemical businesses. Moreover, there is likelihood of charter rate being push down further due to Iran's sanction.

'''' MISC will be exiting Liner segment by 1H12. MISC has specifically provided RM1.45bn (larger than previous guidance of RM1.2bn) for the potential losses of exiting Liner business.

'''' Upgrade to HOLD with unchanged Target Price of RM5.57, after its price had come down.

''

IJM Corp (HOLD)

Encouraging 3Q results

'''' IJM posted encouraging performance during 3Q as all division contributed positively. 9MFY12 core earnings (after adjusting for unrealised forex loss of RM34m) grew by 53% to RM359m (26.3 sen/share) from RM235m (17.5 sen/share) previously. Core earnings made up 75% of our estimates and 78% of streets' estimates.

'''' Despite the encouraging results, we maintain our HOLD call on IJM with a TP of RM5.77 (previously RM5.72) as fundamentals have already been fully reflected in its share price.

''

TSH Resources (Hold; TP: RM2.13)

Boosted by strong FFB growth

'''' FY11 net profit of RM120.5m (+41.7%) came in within expectations, accounting for 100.9% of our forecast and 97.5% of consensus estimates.''

'''' Maintain net profit forecasts and SOP-derived TP of RM2.13. However, we are downgrading our recommendation on TSH from BUY to HOLD as upside is now capped by the recent strong run-up in share price.''

''

Lafarge (M) Cement (Hold; TP: RM7.11)

Above expectations

'''' FY12 net profit of RM317.8m (+7.6%) came in above expectations, accounting for 115.2% of our forecast and 112.8% of consensus estimates.''

'''' Despite the better-than-expected set of results, we are keeping our 2012-13 net profit forecasts unchanged, as we believe our forecasts have adequately reflected the expected pick-up in cement consumption.''

'''' TP maintained at RM7.11 based on 16.5x 2012 EPS of 43.1 sen. Maintain Hold.

''

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (Sell; TP: RM21.03)

In line

'''' 3MFY09/11 core net profit of RM356.3m (yoy: -10.8%; qoq: +37%) came in within expectations, at 24.4-24.6% of our and consensus full-year forecasts.

'''' Maintain net profit forecasts and TP of RM20.13 (based on 15x CY2012 EPS).

''

IJM Plantations (Sell; TP: RM2.80)

Above expectations

'''' 9MFY03/12 net profit of RM150.2m (+31.6%) came in above expectations, at 80.7% of our full-year forecast and 84.6% of consensus full-year estimates.''

'''' FY03/12-13 net profit forecasts raised by 5.5% and 4.6% to RM196.5m and RM190.0m respectively, largely to reflect: (1) Higher FFB yield assumption for IJMP's Malaysian oil palm estates; and (2) Slightly lower production cost assumptions.''

'''' TP raised by 4.9% to RM2.80 based on 13x CY 2012 FD EPS of 21.5 sen. However, we are downgrading our recommendation on the stock from Hold to Sell as valuation has run ahead of fundamentals.''

''

January Inflation Report

'''' Inflation eased further to 2.7% yoy in Jan 2012 (Dec: +3.0% yoy), in line with the consensus estimate.

'''' Price increase of the transport category moderated further to 1.6% yoy (Dec: +1.9% yoy) from a high of 6.0% yoy in May 2011 due to the lapse of fuel price hike effected a year ago. Food & beverages segment recorded slower price increase (+4.8% yoy) while price growth of housing & utilities sector inched up to 1.8% yoy.

'''' The pick-up of CPI MoM growth (+0.3%; Dec: +0.1%) may be driven by one-off festivity (Chinese New Year). However, it does suggest that underlying inflation remained apparent which will still be a concern for BNM.

'''' We maintain our inflation forecast for 2012 at 2.7%, factoring in Pemandu's future subsidy removal in Jul & Dec 2012 respectively).

'''' The civil servant salary revision, Budget goodies for the lower-income group, implementation of minimum wage, and tight employment situation will cause inflation to remain sticky at an elevated level.

'''' While room for OPR cut is now available, we still expect BNM to hold the OPR steady at 3.00% until end-2012 on resilient growth outlook and sticky inflation.

''

KLCI: Market turns cautious''

'''' Overall, the rebound from 16 Feb's low of 1549 pts continues to be weak as broader market turns more cautious and trading volume shrank, suggesting that the rally is running out of steam. The KLCI is still below our envisaged resistance channels of 1570-1580 pts. Supports fall on 14-d SMA (1554), 1550 and mid Bollinger band (1543).

Crude oil: Still upside bias

'''' High crude oil prices are likely to be sustainable in the short term amid escalating tensions between Iran and Western nations coupled with liquidity injection since Dec 11 which spurred big infusion of speculative capital into riskier assets. Iran said earlier this week that it stopped selling crude to France and Britain in a move designed to pre-empt European sanctions. The European Union on 23 Jan agreed to ban crude imports from Iran starting 1 July to pressure the country over its nuclear program.

'''' Looking at the chart, if prices can maintain above the long term downtrend line since all time high in June 2008 (US$145/barrel), it may continue to climb towards US$115/barrel after a brief sideways profit taking consolidation. Further resistance is US125/barrel (23.6% FR). Immediate supports are US$94-100.

TSH - Supported by plantations

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: HWANGDBS

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.55

TSH Resources; Buy; RM2.15
Price Target: RM2.55; TSH MK
4Q11 earnings within expectations. 20% FFB CAGR over FY11-FY14 to drive growth. Maintain Buy and RM2.55 TP.

Source: HwangDBS Research 23 Feb 2012

TSH - Highest growth profile

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: HWANGDBS

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.55

TSH Resources; Buy; RM2.23
Price Target: RM2.55; TSH MK

Aggressive expansion in Indonesia to resume; maturing estates to drive FFB output growth. Raised FY12/13F earnings by 10/11% after revising CPO price and FX rate. Maintain Buy with higher TP of RM2.55

Source: HwangDBS Research 14 Feb 2012

HLIB Research 30 Jan 2012 (Plantations; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: TWS
Company Name: TRADEWINDS (M) BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 5.04

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.13

Plantations (Neutral)

Highlights from MPOB Seminar

'''' MPOB expects 2012 CPO production in Malaysia to increase to increase to 19.3m tonnes from 18.9m tonnes in 2011 on the back of: (1) Higher FFB yield; (2) Higher OER; and (3) More matured areas coming into production from replanting in 2009. As for Indonesia, industry expert expects CPO production in 2012 to expand to 26m tonnes from 24.55m tonnes in 2011.

'''' Besides having a direct negative impact on refiners' profitability and capacity utilization in Malaysia and India, the revised export taxes for palm products in Indonesia will also have an indirect impact to the upstream segment. This is mainly because India relies heavily on imported CPO for its downstream processing industry, and lower refined palm product prices from Indonesia will further weaken India refiners' price competitiveness and processing margin (of which the country is already suffering from low capacity utilization), hence reducing India's demand for CPO. This in turn means any reduction in the import of CPO from India will raise palm oil stockpile in Malaysia, hence affecting both demand and prices for CPO.

'''' Despite the current economic turmoil, most speakers expect CPO price to sustain at high level. MPOB expects CPO price to average at between RM3,100 and RM3,500 in 2012 assuming: (1) Crude oil price remains at US$100/barrel; and (2) Soybean oil price remains at US$950/tonne.

'''' We are keeping our Neutral stance on the plantations sector, given: (1) The unattractive valuation (in particular, the bigger plantation players) relative to their regional peers; and (2) Our less optimistic view on the downstream segment's fortunes. For exposure in the sector, our top picks are Tradewinds Plant. (BUY; TP: RM5.04) and TSH Resources (BUY; TP: RM2.13).

''

KLCI: Lower liners and penny stocks to shine

'''' Unless KLCI stages a breakout above the 1531 level (31 Dec 11 high), market is likely to consolidate further with attention remain on lower liners and penny stocks as more investors return from CNY holidays. Immediate support is 1500 while resistance are the huge gap between the 1529-1546 levels dated 5 Aug 11.

BPPLAS: Awaiting a neckline resistance breakout

Downside risks are limited with strong potential to rerate higher due to its cheap valuations, in the wake of its savvy management, strong average 4-year net profit margins of 7.6% (TGUAN: 5%; GWPLAST: 6.4%), superior 4-year ROE of 11.7%'' (TGUAN: 6.4%; GWPLAST: 7.4%) and compelling valuations at 6.9x trailing P/E (industry: 8.8x). Ex-cash, BPPLAS is only trading at 3.8x P/E. Moreover, BPPLAS dividend is also the highest at 6.2% against industry 3.1%.

'''' Technically, BPPLAS medium to long term outlooks are positive as weekly and monthly indicators are on the mend. A breakout above RM0.68 (neckline resistance) will spur greater upside towards RM0.74 (61.8% FR) and RM0.83 (76.4% FR). Immediate supports are situated near RM0.58 (38.2% FR) and RM0.60 (weekly mid Bollinger band5). Cut loss below RM0.58.

''

HLIB Research 11 Jan 2011 (Plantations; Economics; Traders Brief)

Stock Name: TWSPLNT
Company Name: TRADEWINDS PLANTATION BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 5.04

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: HLG

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.13

Plantations (Neutral)

Inventory declines further in Dec 11

'''' Mom, Palm oil inventory in Dec 11 declined by another 1.5% to 2.04m tonnes, on an 8.2% decline in production that more than offset: (1) A 45.4% increase in imports; (2) A 4.5% decline in exports, and (3) A 22.7% decline in domestic consumption.

'''' Production in Dec 11 declined by 8.2% mom to 1.49m tonnes (Peninsular: -13.1%; East Malaysia: -2.2%), as production cycle (which seasonally weakens from Oct until Jan/Feb) coupled with La Ni''a (that results in higher rainfall) affected harvesting of palm oil. Exports declined by 4.5% to 1.59m tonnes, led by'' most major importing countries (see Figure 3)''

'''' Yoy, palm oil inventory rose by 26.2% to 2.04m tonnes mainly on higher imports and production, coupled with lower domestic consumption that more than offset lower opening stocks and higher exports. ''

'''' Despite our bullish view on the near-term CPO prices (which we believe will likely sustain at above RM3,100/tonne until La Nina subsides), we are keeping our average CPO price assumption of RM3,000/tonne for 2012.

'''' We are keeping our Neutral stance on the sector.

'''' Top picks are Tradewinds Plant (BUY; TP: RM5.04) and TSH Resources (BUY; TP: RM2.13).

''

Performance of IPI (Nov 2011)

'''' IPI grew by 1.8% yoy in Nov (Oct:'' +2.9% yoy), lower than the consensus estimate of a +3.5% expansion. The moderation was due to softening of manufacturing output growth (+4.0% yoy; Oct: +6.3% yoy) which was affected by sustained weak E&E performance and a sudden decline in the output of refined petroleum.

'''' Electricity output expanded at a stronger pace of 2.9% yoy (Oct: +1.9% yoy) while mining output declined at a slower rate of 4.2% yoy (Oct: -5.7% yoy).''

'''' We maintain our full year 2011 GDP estimate at 5.1%, factoring in 4Q estimate of 5.0% (unchanged). We also maintain 2012 GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in 2012 as the bunching of construction projects is expected to cushion the softer manufacturing performance.

'''' We expect BNM to hold the OPR steady at 3.00% until end-2012 given the resilient economic growth with sticky inflation.

''

KLCI: Taking cue from positive Wall St and Europe markets

'' While bigcaps continue to consolidate, second and lower liners continue to hog the limelight following the lifting of trading designation on Harvest and rash of M&A news. Today, KLCI is expected to retest 2011's close of 1530, taking cue from positive Wall St and European markets overnight. Immediate supports are 10-d SMA and 200-d SMA whilst upside targets are the huge gap within 1529-1546 dated 5 Aug 11.

Dow Jones: Uptrend still intact

'' YTD, the Dow jumped 2% and the early "January effect" inspired hopes that U.S. markets were beginning to overcome headline risk from the European debt crisis and moving toward a more independent track.

'' Despite the massive rally since Nov 11, overall market is not excessively overbought as RSI is still hovers below 70. Following the positive ascending triangle breakout, current uptrend remains intact as long as the Dow is able to maintain its posture above 10-d SMA (now at 12339) and uptrend line supports.

'' Immediate resistance targets are upper Bollinger band near 12600 and Jul 11 high of 12753.

TSH falls after 1-for-1 bonus, OSK Research FV RM2.21

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: OSK

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 2.21

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 2): Shares of TSH RESOURCES BHD [] fell to a low of RM1.90 on Friday after its bonus shares, which were issued on a one-for-one basis, went ex.

At 12.08pm, it was down eight sen to RM1.91. There were 513,100 shares done at prices ranging from RM1.90 to RM2.01.

OSK Research said that following its calendar year 2012 crude palm oil (CPO) price assumption upgrade to RM3,000 per tonne, it was raising its FY12 earnings forecast for TSH by 10.4% and revising upwards its fair value to RM2.21.

'The company possesses one of the youngest tree age profiles among planters under our coverage, but its valuations are starting to appear a little rich following its recent strong price appreciation. Still a BUY at the moment with a potential 10.8% upside,' it said.

''

TSH Resources advances on solid 3Q earnings

Stock Name: TSH
Company Name: TSH RESOURCES BHD

Research House: MIDF

Price Call: BUY

Target Price: 4.50

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 18): TSH RESOURCES BHD [] shares rose on Friday, Nov 18 after the company's third quarter net profit surged 89% to RM34.47 million from RM18.24 million a year ago, underpinned the performance of its palm and bio-integration segment.

At 9.10am, TSH rose 11 sen to RM3.71 with 98,900 shares done.

Its revenue for the quarter rose 27.5% to RM273.15 million from RM214.26 million in 2010. Earnings per share rose to 8.41 sen from 4.45 sen in 2010, while net assets per share was RM2.06.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, TSH's net profit jumped 131% to RM94.39 million from RM40.83 million in 2010 while revenue increased by 29.2% to RM855.69 million from RM662.22 million in 2010.

MIDF Research maintained its Buy rating on the stock and raised its target price by 27% to RM4.50 (from RM3.54 previously) and said the company's 9MFY11 earnings exceeded expectations, accounting for more than 80% of the full year forecasts.

'Owing to higher-than expected earnings in 3QFY11, we have revised upwards our FY11 and FY12 earnings forecast by 10.3% and 26.6% respectively on the back of better margin expectations as more tress coming into maturity.

'In-line with the upward earnings revision, we are revising our target price by 27% to RM4.50. The target price is based on a multiple of 11.6xEPS12, which is one standard deviation below its 5-year historical PER of 14times. We view TSH as currently undervalued as it is trading at only 9.3 times forward PER, which is at the lower bound of its five year average PER band of 7.3 times ' 14.9 times,' it said in a note Nov 18.

''