March 13, 2012

Hong Leong Bank - Parting with MIMB

Stock Name: HLBANK
Company Name: HONG LEONG BANK BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 11.00




Target RM11.00

Hong Leong Bank's proposed sale of MIMB Investment Bank is not a surprise given the bank's wish to focus purely on commercial and Islamic banking. As MIMB is expected to be sold at its book value, the deal will be neutral for the group.


Plantations (Neutral) - Inventory rises for the first time since Sep

Stock Name: CBIP
Company Name: CB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT HOLDING
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.03

Stock Name: TWSPLNT
Company Name: TRADEWINDS PLANTATION BHD
Research House: HLGPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 5.04



Plantations (Neutral)
Inventory rises for the first time since Sep
  • Palm oil inventory in Feb 12 rose by 2% mom to 2.06m tonnes (for the first time since Sep 11), mainly on the back of: (1) A 12.6% mom decline in exports; and (2) A 42.2% mom decline in domestic consumption, which altogether more than offset a 7.9% decline in production. 
  • Exports fell by 12.6% mom to 1.21m tonnes in Feb 12, mainly due to decline from Egypt (-64.4%), Singapore (-8.8%), United States (-19.4%), Pakistan (-69.7%), Netherlands (-16.7%); partially mitigated by higher exports to China (+39%) and India (+2.6%). We believe the decline in exports was partly due to the delay in the issuance of tax free palm oil export quotas, which started only from 7 Feb onwards. This, coupled with lesser working days for the month may have resulted in less CPO being exported.   
  • We are keeping our average CPO price forecast of RM3,000/tonne for 2012 as we believe: (1) CPO price will likely weaken once La Nina subsides (expected by mid-2012); (2) The current global economic headwinds may curb demand and prices of palm oil; and (3) Production recovery, expected to begin by March.
  • Top picks are CBIP (BUY; TP: RM3.03) and Tradewinds Plantation (BUY; TP: RM5.04).

Source: HLIB Research 13 March 2012

Gamuda: Maintain Buy - Another good quarter?

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.10



Maintain Buy. Gamuda's 2QFY12 results, due on 28 March, should pleasantly surprise on rising property contributions from record sales, as well as land sale gains in Vietnam. We raise our FY12-14 net profit forecasts by 1-3% p.a.. There is however no change to our RM4.10 RNAV-based TP. The KVMRT-SBK tunnelling and Gemas-JB double track rail works, both to be awarded by mid-2012, will be the catalysts that drive the share price. Both would provide upside to our earnings forecasts. Our TP only reflects the KVMRT-SBK tunnelling works.


Maybank Research 13 March 2012

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Padini: Maintain Buy - India lifts cotton export ban

Stock Name: PADINI
Company Name: PADINI HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 1.70



Joining the billion-ringgit club. India's on-again, off-again cotton export ban is a small hiccup which has not affected Padini. We maintain our Buy call and TP of RM1.70 based on 12x CY12 PER. The group has evolved into a stock with a market cap of over RM1b compared to just RM690m when we initiated coverage in July 2011. The 12-month average daily trading volume has also improved to 1.2m shares vs. just 0.7m in July 2011. Trading at 11.2x calendarised 2012 earnings, we expect its valuation gap vis-''-vis peers to continue narrowing.


Maybank Research 13 March 2012

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Stock Overview - UEMLAND - 13 Mar 2012

Stock Name: UEMLAND
Company Name: UEM LAND HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.47



UEMLAND ( 5148 : 2.26 ) : Targeting 2.47

Description

Resistance : 2.47 2.68
Support : 2.18

RSI of 44
RSI appears to have stabilised

STOCHASTIC
It is oversold, indicating a limited downside

TREND INDICATOR
Comment
The current pullback may be ending as technicals are approaching oversold.

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 2.16

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 13 March 2012

Stock Overview - TENAGA - 13 Mar 2012

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.84



TENAGA ( 5347 : 6.42 ) : Targeting 6.84

Description

Resistance : 6.84 7.00
Support : 6.20

RSI of 64
RSI is on the rise

STOCHASTIC
It is riding on an upswing

TREND INDICATOR
Comment
Following the consolidation breakout, it is heading to test a resistance at 6.84

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 6.20

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 13 March 2012

Stock Overview - NWP - 13 Mar 2012

Stock Name: NWP
Company Name: NWP HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.35



NWP ( 5025 : 0.24 ) : Targeting 0.35

Description
Wood building products

Resistance : 0.35
Support : 0.21

RSI of 73
RSI is overbought

STOCHASTIC
It is overbought

TREND INDICATOR
Comment
The sharp upkick yesterday, is heading to test a resistance at 0.35

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.21

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 13 March 2012

Stock Overview - SKPRES - 13 Mar 2012

Stock Name: SKPRES
Company Name: SKP RESOURCES BHD
Research House: JUPITERPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 0.63



SKPRES ( 7155 : 0.54 ) : Targeting 0.63

Description
Rubber and plastic manufacturing

Resistance : 0.63
Support : 0.53

RSI of 79
RSI is overbought

STOCHASTIC
It is riding on an upswing

TREND INDICATOR
Comment
Following the consolidation breakout, it is heading to test a resistance at 0.63

Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.53

Source:Jupiter Securities Research 13 March 2012

ENG (FV RM1.52 - SELL) Corporate News Flash: Revises Offer Price

Stock Name: ENG
Company Name: ENG TEKNOLOGI HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 1.52




THE BUZZ
An announcement was made on Bursa yesterday,  stating that TYK Capital is still negotiatingwith its financiers to fund the privatization of Engtek. We understand that theoffer price will likely be adjusted to a value not exceeding RM2.00/share,instead of the earlier proposed RM2.50/share made prior to the Thai floods,depending on the outcome of the due diligence exercise scheduled to becompleted by 19 March.

OUR TAKE
Definitely below RM2.00/share or no go. In our 4QFY11results review note, we noted that Engtek posted a net loss of RM42.9m,  arising from the recognition of asset impairmentsand write-offs amounting to RM45.6m. We also highlighted that the company islooking to replace 400 damaged computer numerical control (CNC) machines with300 new generation CNCs costing approximately RM90m, in order to restore itsproduction capacity back to pre-Thai flood  levels (with  half of the new machines already delivered). Thus, we believe that the revisionof  the offer price to RM2.00/share  orbelow  is highly likely but the final price will be determined by TYK Capitalalong with its financiers.

Nod from majorshareholders? As PNB and LTH have a combined 23% equity interest in Engtek(held since early 2000), their decision on whether to accept the revised offer pricemay prove crucial in sealing the privatization deal. Based on our estimates, PNB and LTH's average costper share amounts to between RM1.40 and RM1.80. Assuming that the offer priceis now RM2.00/share, there is an upside of 10%-45% compared to 35%-75% based onthe previous offer of RM2.50/share. Given the scenario is as such, we  think that there is  still a  high chance that both entities will givetheir consent, especially with the HDD segment now facing long-term headwinds arising from: (i) the proliferation of smartphones and tablets which hassapped the demand for PCs, and (ii) the slow but  steady transitionto  solid state drives (SSD) as theprimary medium of storage. However, any offer price below RM2.00/share coulddiscourage PNB and LTHfrom participating in the proposed privatization.

Downgrade to SELL.We are not making any changes to our fair value of RM1.52 on Engtek, premisedon 0.9x FY12 P/NTA, but we are downgrading our recommendation from NEUTRAL toSELL due to the fluidity of the situation. We advise investors to cash out fromEngtek as we see better trading opportunities for both Notion (TRADING BUY,FV:RM2.43) and JCY (TRADING BUY, FV: RM1.80) which have a better product mix andeconomies of scale respectively. Moreover, the potential new offer price ofRM2.00 for Engtek would only provide a rather limited upside potential of 12% from the current market price.Being a HDD component  maker that isseverely affected  by the Thai floods,Engtek's short- to long-term outlook is undoubtedly murky.

Source: OSK188

KIMLUN (FV RM2.37 - BUY) Company Update: Record Year in The Making

Stock Name: KIMLUN
Company Name: KIMLUN CORPORATION BERHAD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.37




At our recent  visitto  KimLun following the release of its4QFY11 results, management  said the  jobs flow may  continue to  gush, with  a number of forthcoming  contracts including  the TLS of KV MRT SBK line and Singapore's MRTand NEWater extension. Its orderbook has  hit a new high  of RM1.62bn, of which RM597m is secured YTD.All in, we like KimLun's execution track record as well as strong contract winsto date. Hence, we maintain BUY, at a revised FV of RM2.37, based on 12x FY12PER and an enlarged share base, following the completion of the first 5% tranche of its proposed privateplacement.

SturdyRM1.62bn-strong orderbook.  KimLunorderbook  has reached a record RM1.62bn,of which RM597m worth of jobs was secured this year. These comprise the supplyof segmental box girders to the Klang Valley MRT SBK line worth RM223m and 5building jobs in Johor worth a combined RM374m, of which 2 jobs with a totalvalue of RM152m were announced yesterday. Of the RM1.62bn worth of contracts,some 80% is from its construction segment while the remaining RM310m comes fromits precast concrete division. Following a brief meeting with the company'smanagement, we took a look at each of its core focus areas to gauge thecontracts it can potentially win, as well as the jobs outlook for some of itsexisting and new business segments in the near term.     

More works likelyfrom MRT.  KimLun has submitted  a bid  for the  supply of tunnel lining segment  (TLS)  to the KV MRT SBK line,  which we gather may be  officially awardedlatest  by May this year. Management  said there is a possibility of the TLS portion  being split into various packages and shared among KimLun and other local boyssuch as Hong Leong Industries and MTD ACPI. That said, we continue to like KimLun'schances of securing at least a third of the works given its track record viaits current involvement in Singapore's MRT extension. In the long run, we seepotential jobs for KimLun from the widely anticipated 2 new KV MRT linescurrently known as the Circle line and Northwest-Southeast line. We alsounderstand that about 50% of the former may run underground across the city,which could translate into potential TLS contracts amounting to >RM500m,assuming a total value of RM20bn for the said line. 

Contracts fromSingapore could pick up in 2H12.  In2011,  KimLun's operations in Singaporecontributed 7% of the group's topline. Going into 2H12, we understand that the group is looking to secure  more works from the island, with tendersfor  the 35km underground powertransmission cable comprising 2 tunnels having closed at end-Feb and expectedto be  officially awarded out towardsend-2012.  We  continue to see opportunities in the mediumterm as the Singapore government has announced plans to build 2 more rail linestotaling  48km. Meanwhile, management hashighlighted the possibility of contracts from NEWater in relation to watertransmission pipes as well as a sewerage system with a combined length of some50km.

Source: OSK188