Showing posts with label TAANN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TAANN. Show all posts

November 26, 2013

August 22, 2012

Affin cuts Ta Ann to 'sell'

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AFFINPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 3.08



Affin Investment Bank downgraded Ta Ann Holdings Bhd to "sell" from "add", and cut its target price to RM3.08 per share from RM5.08 previously, after the timber firm's first-half earnings missed market expectations.

"Given the weaker-than-expected second quarter (ended June 30, 2012) performance, we are cutting our financial year ending Dec 31, 2012 (FY2012) to FY2014 net profit forecast by 20 percent to 32 percent," the research house said in a note on Wednesday.

"At current share price level, the stock is trading at 14.7 times 2013 price-to-earnings ratio (PER), expensive in our view, considering its high risk to earnings, while also trading above its historical average PER of 13 times," Affin added.

Ta Ann reported on Friday a weaker-than-expected first-half net profit of RM24.8 million, a 68 percent drop year-on-year, mainly on lower selling prices and higher cost of production.

By 9.20am (0120 GMT), the counter dropped 1.78 percent to RM4.42 per share, while the broader index rose 0.16 percent. -- REUTERS

April 20, 2012

Ta Ann Holdings: Maintain Buy - Bonus issue to improve liquidity

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.00



Positive for sentiment. Ta Ann's proposed 1-for-5 bonus issue not only helps to improve liquidity but it will 'recapitalize' its share base as its seeks to achieve sustainable growth in the long run. The stock continues to trade at an attractive 10.9x 2013 PER, with low EV/planted ha of ~MYR42,600 (43% discount to industry average). It is also poised to deliver a 15% 3-year net profit CAGR. Maintain Buy and MYR9.00 TP on 15x 2013 PER. Ta Ann is our top pick among the plantation stocks.

Click here for full report

Source: Maybank Research - 20 April 2012

April 19, 2012

Ta Ann Holdings - Oil palm earnings forecast raised, partly offset by lower plywood prices BUY

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.86




- We maintain BUY on Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, with a higher fairvalue of RM7.86/share (vs. RM7.60/share previously), based on a PE of 13xpegged to a raised FY12F EPS of 60.5 sen (vs. 58.5 sen previously).

- We have tweaked upwards our FY12F-FY13F earnings forecastsby 3% and 6% respectively, pursuant to the raising of our annual average CPOprice assumption  to RM3,400/tonne fromRM3,300/tonne previously.

- Additionally, this is after factoring in muchslower-thanexpected reconstruction activity in Japan, which has affectedplywood prices. Log prices could hold up stemming from demand in India, subjectto the rupee not weakening further.

- We now expect Ta Ann's oil palm division to fetch profit aftertax of RM154mil (+26% YoY) and RM188mil (+22%YoY) for FY12F and FY13F,respectively.

- We expect FFB production to grow by 24% and 16% annuallyto 570,000 tonnes and 663,000 tonnes for FY12F and FY13F, respectively. Weexpect the oil palm division to account for over 80% of earnings for FY12F andFY13F vs. about 77% in FY11.

- While its oil palm division continues to grow strongly, weremain concerned about its wood manufacturing division, particularly itsplywood operations.

- Plywood prices have in recent weeks been affected by weakdemand from Japan, with the average blended price falling below US$500/cu m inMarch, vs. US$622/cu m in January and US$566/cu m in February. The averageprice was at a high of US$621/cu m in FY11. 

- We now forecast an average blended price of about US$530/cum (US$550/cu m previously) each for FY12F and FY13F ' leading to pre-tax lossesof RM16mil each annually vs. an estimated RM14mil (including impairment ofnearly RM10mil) loss in FY11.

- Nonetheless, we expect the timber division to continue to besupported by the log operations, for which current prices are staying at aboutUS$220/cu m.

- The risks include:- 1) Further delays in thereconstruction of Japan's tsunami-hit north-eastern region; 2) further weakeningof the rupee, and 3) widening losses at its Tasmania veneer manufacturingoperations.   

April 13, 2012

Plantation - OVERWEIGHT - Tree stress effect may have just starte

Stock Name: SIME
Company Name: SIME DARBY BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 11.60

Stock Name: IJMPLNT
Company Name: IJM PLANTATIONS BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.25

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.75

Stock Name: UMCCA
Company Name: UNITED MALACCA BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.00

Stock Name: KLK
Company Name: KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 23.60

Stock Name: IOICORP
Company Name: IOI CORPORATION BHD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.60

Stock Name: GENP
Company Name: GENTING PLANTATIONS BERHAD
Research House: KENANGAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 9.90




Malaysia's CPO inventory level for Mar-12 was reported at1.96m mt or 2% lower than the consensus estimate of 2.00m mt. It was also 6%below our estimate of 2.08m mt. The key surprise was the better-than-expectedexports growth of 11% MoM to 1.34m mt (5% above the consensus and ourexpectation of 1.28m mt). Judging from the CPO production severe YoY decline of14% to 1.21m mt in Mar-12, we believe that oil palm trees may have just enteredtheir tree stress period. Typically, CPO production will be flat or declineduring its tree stress period. Among the key CPO consumers, the highest exportgrowth was noticed in Pakistan (+125% MoM to 78k mt), Europe (+63% MoM to 174kmt) and India (+11% MoM to 120k mt). The latest USDA WASDE report was bullishto CPO prices as it reaffirmed the global soybean oil shortage for the 2011/12season. The global soybean oil inventory was cut by 0.17m mt or 6.2% from itsprevious forecast to only 2.56m mt. All the bullish fundamental  factors mentioned continue to support ourOVERWEIGHT call on the plantation sector. We maintain our CY12 average CPO priceof RM3,200 per mt but may increase it further if soybean oil production continuesto deteriorate in South America.  We  have OUTPERFORM  calls  on SIME (TP: RM11.60) and IJM Plantation (TP: RM4.25) on valuation grounds.To leverage on  their  double digit  FFB  growth, we  also  have OUTPERFORM  calls  on Ta  Ann (RM7.75) and UnitedMalacca (TP: RM8.00). Meanwhile, we maintain MARKET PERFORM calls on KLK (TP:RM23.60), IOI (TP: RM5.60) and GENP (TP: RM9.90).

Mar-12 stocks levelbelow expectation.  The  CPO inventory level of 1.96m mt was 2% lowerthan the consensus estimate of 2.00m mt. It is also 6% below our estimate of 2.08m mt. The key surprise was thebetter-than-expected exports growth of 11% MoM to 1.34m mt (5% above theconsensus and our expectation of 1.28m mt). As the exports growth of 11% MoMsurpassed the production increase of 2% MoM, the stocks-to-usage ratio declined to 11.3% in Mar-12 (from 13.5%in Feb-12). On the overall, the meaningful drop in the stocks level to below2.00 mt is positive for CPO prices.

Tree stress effecthas just started. CPO production slumped 14% YoY to 1.21m mt in Mar-12.  The decline  was  more severe  than  market expectations  of  a 7%  to  9% drop  and  our expectation of a 2% drop. As highlightedearlier  in our sector update report on27 Mar, we believe that the tree stress effect on oil palm trees has started.Hence, the CPO production upcycle, which has lasted for 12 months (from Mar-11to Feb-12) should have ended. In Apr-12, CPO production is likely to register aYoY production decline of about 4% to about 1.47m mt. However, our estimate mayappear too optimistic at the current juncture as the severity of tree stresseffect is still unclear. CPO prices are nonetheless likely to appreciatefurther as CPO production will be limited as tree stress effects usually lastfor 2 years.

Strong CPO exports inMar-12 likely to continue. Exports surged by 11% MoM or 132k mt in Mar-12to 1.34m mt. Among the key CPO consumers, the highest growth was seen in Pakistan(+125% MoM to 78k mt), Europe (+63% MoM to 174k mt) and India (+11% MoM to 120kmt). The strengthening CPO exports to Pakistan were probably caused by a normalisationprocess as the Feb-12 number was extremely low (due to transporters' strike in thecountry causing closure of the factories). The strong CPO export trend islikely to continue in  April,  judging from  the  cargo surveyor's  estimate  of an  8%  CPO export  growth  to 479k  mt in the first 10 days ofApril. The resilient CPO demand should support CPO prices in 2Q12.

USDA WASDE reportbullish for CPO prices.  In thelatest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report released on 10 Apr,USDA has reduced its 2011/12 season global soybean oil inventory by 0.17m mt or6.2% from its previous forecast to only 2.56m mt. As a result, the 2011/12season global soybean oil stock-to-usage ratio declined by 41pp to 6.08% fromlast month's estimate of 6.49%. Soybean oil production from South America has meanwhilebeen severely affected by bad weathers. Argentina soybean oil productionforecast has been reduced by 0.13m mt or 1.7% to 7.30m mt while Brazil soybeanoil production has been  cut  by 0.11m  mt  or 1.6%  to  6.81m mt.  CPO  prices will  benefit  from this  as  it is  usually used as a substitutefor soybean oil.  


Source: Kenanga

April 5, 2012

Ta Ann Holdings: Buy - Out of the woods, into the golden crop

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.00



Due for a re-rating. Three key catalysts will propel earnings: (i) an explosive 18% 3-year forward CAGR in FFB output, (ii) Japan's reconstruction, (iii) a maiden contribution from its forest plantation in 2015. Ta Ann's earnings quality was boosted by its transformation into a producer of palm oil, which contributed 77% of PBT in 2011. The stock trades at 11.7x 2013 PER, with low EV/planted ha of ~RM39,600, and is poised to deliver an 11% 3-year net profit CAGR. We initiate coverage with a Buy and RM8.00 TP on 15x 2013 PER (+29% upside).

Maybank Research - 5 April 2012

Click here for full report

February 29, 2012

Ta Ann Holdings - FY11 within expectations; RM9.7mil plywood impairment not a surprise BUY

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.60




We maintain BUY on Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, with an unchanged fairvalue of RM7.60/share, based on a PE of 13x pegged to FY12F EPS of 58.5 sen.

Ta Ann's FY11 net profit of RM153mil (+104%) was within expectations,but for an impairment of RM9.7mil relating to its Tasmania veneer manufacturingoperations.

Excluding the impairment, core net profit amounted  to RM163mil vs. our estimate of RM162mil andconsensus' RM159mil.

It declared a second interim (single-tier) dividend of 10 sen/share,bringing the total for the full year to 20 sen/share.  (vs. 8 sen in FY10) ' representing a netpayout ratio of 40% and beating our forecast of a 15 sen/share estimate. 

We have accordingly adjusted upwards our forecast annual grossdividend to 20 sen/share from 15/share previously ' representing a net payoutof between 20% and 27%.

We understand that the RM9.7mil impairment was made with regardto its property, plant and equipment in Tasmania, given the continuing lossesof the operations there.

Including the impairment, the plywood division incurred aloss after tax of RM14mil (halved vs. loss of RM28.8mil in FY10). We deem theimpairment as prudent given the continuing losses ' short of closing down theloss-making unit. We do not rule out more impairment to come.

Notwithstanding that, we are maintaining our forecasts as wehad already assumed an FY11 pre-tax loss of RM5mil (excluding impairment) forthe plywood division, and further annual losses of between RM10mil and RM13milfor FY12FFY14F.

FY11 bottomline was driven by a significant growth in itsoil palm division, which posted an 87% rise in profit after tax to RM124mil(vs. FY10's RM66mil), as well as the logging division, which posted a 26% YoYrise in PAT to RM44mil.

Notably, fresh fruit production (FFB) sales volume rosenearly 50% 457,975 tonnes from 310,870 tonnes in FY10, while average CPO pricerose 23% to RM3,306/tonne from RM2,691/tonne in FY10.

We continue to like Ta Ann for its rapidly growing oil palm division.Additionally, log and plywood prices are currently holding above US$210/cu mand above US$600/cu m, respectively.

February 8, 2012

Harvesting more palm fruits

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.98



January 16, 2012

December 12, 2011

December 6, 2011

RHB Research has Outperform on Jaya Tiasa, Ta Ann

Stock Name: JTIASA
Company Name: JAYA TIASA HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.71

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 6.49



KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 6): RHB Research Institute said the build-up in plywood inventory in Japan is easing with low arrivals of import since September.

It said on Tuesday that generally, plywood prices are firming, although demand is not strong enough to push up prices up very much.

For log, prices have remained firm due to robust demand from India amid seasonal low log production period in Sarawak currently.

'We maintain our Neutral call on the sector as we remain cautious that the recovery in Japan housing starts could stall due to a protracted slowdown in the global economy.

'Nevertheless we still like Jaya Tiasa (Outperform, FV RM6.71) and Ta Ann (Outperform, FV RM6.49) as there will be significant boost to their earnings from PLANTATION [] going forward due to rising fresh fruit bunches production volume and favourable crude palm oil prices,' it said.

November 23, 2011

Credit Suisse maintains Outperform on Ta Ann, ups TP to RM7.30

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: CREDIT SUISSEPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.30



KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 23): Credit Suisse has maintained its Outperform rating on TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD [] at RM4.78 and upped its target price for the stock to RM7.30 (from RM6.96), and said it was raising Ta Ann's net profit for FY11-12E by 25-38% to reflect stronger-than-expected oil palm PLANTATION [] contributions.

In a note Wednesday, Credit Suisse said that there was still no clarity in terms of the timing of Japanese reCONSTRUCTION [].

Timber companies are now looking towards Mar/Apr 2012 for reconstruction activity to commence while the most bearish are concerned that 2012 could be worse than 2011, it said.

'We expect plywood prices to remain on a downtrend for the rest of 2011, as the surge in Japanese plywood imports has so far not been matched by any reconstruction demand.

'We expect log prices to remain firm, as we go into the rainy season which could potentially crimp log supply through early 2012.

Credit Suisse said as and when reconstruction activity kicks off in Japan, this would likely be positive for plywood prices and act as a positive catalyst for Ta Ann.

'The risks to our call include any potential delay in reconstruction activity in Japan or a strong ringgit,' it said.

''

August 15, 2011

Timber: Japanese plywood importers halt new orders

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.83



Timber sector
Maintain neutral: Japanese plywood importers, which had aggressively purchased panel products from Sarawak after the earthquake and tsunami in March, have temporarily halted new orders due to high inventories, The Star newspaper reported yesterday, citing the Sarawak timber Association (STA).

This confirms the International Tropical Timber Organisation's (ITTO) recent observation that there had been an easing of demand for plywood in Japan on the back of high inventories ' as we had noted last week.

We do not expect the situation to last for long as inventory rundown could happen just as quickly as the build-up of supply. In line with our view, STA panel products committee chairman Wong Kai Song said the market will be better towards the end of the year, and 2012 will see a stable market.

Buying by Japanese companies had slowed down in late May as plywood warehouses were full. Wong said the actual demand for the reconstruction of Sendai, one of the badly hit areas, was not as strong as anticipated due to the longer time taken to clear up the debris.

Japan's housing starts in June rose about 10% to 7,200 units compared with the normal monthly figures of 6,200 to 6,400 units. Wong said global plywood prices are still trading above US$600 (RM1,788) per cu m compared with US$400 per cu m in March and April this year.

He said with the supply of logs returning to normal, production had been boosted to an average of 70% now compared with up to 50% early this year when there was an acute shortage.

Sarawak Timber Industry Development Corp (STIDC) statistics show that Japan's plywood imports from Sarawak from April to June soared to 499,435 cu m worth over RM926 million, up from 296,162 cu m valued at RM475.7 million.

It is noteworthy that Sarawak's plywood exports to South Korea dropped to 39,143 cu m worth RM55 million during 2Q11, down from over 125,000 cu m at RM137.2 million in the previous corresponding period. This too was expected, given the imposition of anti-dumping duties ranging from 5% to 38% on Malaysian plywood exporters for three years starting from March.

During 1H11, Sarawak exported nearly 1.3 million cu m of panel products worth nearly RM2.1 billion compared with 1.46 million cu m at RM1.95 billion a year earlier.

We maintain our 'neutral' stance on the timber sector, with a 'buy' for Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd (fair value: RM8.51 per share) on the back of its oil palm division's rapid growth and more geographically diversified timber markets. Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, which is scheduled to announce its 2QFY11 results on Aug 22, continues to be a 'hold' (FV: RM5.83). ' AmResearch, Aug 15


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, August 16, 2011.

July 28, 2011

Ta Ann strong on Japan reconstruction

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.83



Ta Ann Holdings Bhd
(July 28, RM5.60)
Maintain hold at RM5.59 with fair value of RM5.83: We are maintaining a 'hold' on Ta Ann Holdings with a fair value of RM5.83 per share (post one-for-five bonus issue that was completed on June 17, 2011). We continue to peg the stock at a price-earnings ratio (PER) of 15 times its FY11F earnings per share (EPS) of 38.9 sen (adjusted for the bonus issue) on the back of sustaining wood and crude palm oil prices.

The company is on track to meet our expectations, with a 1QFY11 net profit of RM26.6 million (-12% quarter-on-quarter; +233% year-on-year) which accounted for 22% of our FY11F earnings of RM120 million and 19% of consensus' RM141.5 million. Ta Ann is scheduled to release its 2Q results by the end of next month.

Ta Ann is one of the major beneficiaries of the'' reconstruction in Japan following the earthquake and tsunami in March. It exports over 90% of its plywood to Japan.

Japan's housing and construction development have improved. Housing starts in Japan rose 6.4% y-o-y in May (March 2011: -2.4% y-o-y; April 2011: 0.3% y-o-y), against the consensus forecast of +3.3%.

A Reuters poll suggests Japan's economy will grow by 1.1% in the July to September quarter, after contracting for three straight quarters. This will partly be due to the ongoing reconstruction that will be spread out over the next few years.

In May, Japan's legislators passed a fiscal 2011 supplementary budget of US$48.8 billion (RM144 billion) to finance the initial phase of rebuilding, including clearing the overwhelming debris and the building of temporary housing. Legislators recently passed the second supplementary budget of US$25.5 billion. It has been reported that about half of that would go towards recovery, including building temporary housing. All these are seen as stopgap packages.

An initial estimate of at least US$150 billion will be required over the next five years to rebuild the ruined northeastern region. Given the slow pace of the budgetary process and the overwhelming amount of debris still left to be cleared, we expect the reconstruction to only gather meaningful pace at the earliest by end-2011.

Ta Ann is trading at a PER of 14 times FY11 and FY12F EPS. Our target PER of 15 times is still two notches below the stock's five-year average PER of 17 times. Our fair value of RM5.83 per share provides an FY11F return-on-equity of over 13% and gross dividend yield of 2.7% at current price. ' AmResearch, July 28


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, July 29, 2011.

July 6, 2011

Timber in a sweet spot

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 8.54



Timber sector
Maintain overweight: The outlook for Japan housing starts remains positive, although disruptions in the wake of the recent earthquake and tsunami will likely weigh on housing starts in the near term. According to Sekisui House Ltd, Japan's largest home builder, reconstruction-related housing demand is likely to come in strong to help to push Japan's annual housing starts above 900,000 units over the next two to three years, compared with 813,143 units in 2010.
While we do expect to see some easing of log prices in the near term, this is likely to have more to do with seasonal patterns as production should start to normalise when weather conditions improve. We do not expect log prices to come off very substantially from the current levels given that demand from India and China remains robust, while overall log supply can only increase by no more than 10% year-on-year (taking 2008 and 2009 production levels as well as the latest production quota as a guide).

According to the latest Japan Lumber report, plywood prices have remained firm so far in May and June at US$675 (RM2,031.75) to US$850 per cu m after the spike in March, which is in line with our expectations. We expect plywood prices will remain stable at this level for the next few months, before they start to rise again when reconstruction starts to gain pace.

We are positive on Ta Ann Holdings Bhd and Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd, as both companies have significant oil palm plantations similar to mid-sized plantation companies. Fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production for both companies is set to rise significantly over the next few years due to increasing mature hectarage.

The risks include: (i) lower than expected improvement in Japan's housing starts; and (ii) price discounting by neighbouring countries with lower cost of production, resulting in lower exports from Malaysia to its major export markets.

We maintain our 'overweight' call on the timber sector given robust near-term earnings growth for the timber division due to: (i) strong log prices owing to huge demand from India and China; and (ii) strong plywood prices due to increased demand from Japan for reconstruction activities. There will also be a significant boost to Jaya Tiasa and Ta Ann's earnings from the plantation division going forward due to increasing FFB production. ' RHB Research, July 6


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, July 7, 2011.

May 30, 2011

TAANN - Ta Ann's 1QFY11 within expectations, better quarters ahead

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHB

Ta Ann Holdings Bhd
(May 30, RM6.61)
Maintain outperform at RM6.52 with fair value of RM6.52
: Ta Ann's 1QFY11 net profit of RM26.6 million came in at 15% to 19% of our full-year forecast and market consensus. This is within our expectations as we anticipate much stronger quarters ahead, underpinned by the surge in log and plywood prices after Japan's earthquake in March as well as increasing fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production volume at its plantation division.

Net profit for 1QFY11 more than tripled to RM26.6 million (from RM8 million a year ago) as a result of higher selling prices for logs (+39%), plywood (+39%), and crude palm oil [CPO] (+44%). FFB production volume was also higher by 36% due to an increase in mature hectarage, but sales volume for logs was down by 31% and plywood 30% due to lower log production volume.

Net profit for 1QFY11 decreased by 11.9% quarter-on-quarter (from RM30.2 million previously) mainly due to lower export log sales (-30%), plywood sales (-11%) and FFB production volume (-19%). The decline in sales volume was partially cushioned by higher selling prices for logs (+10%), plywood (+11%), and CPO (+17%).

The decline in sales volume of its timber division was largely due to the seasonally wet weather conditions that hampered log harvesting.

We are of the view that Ta Ann's prospects continue to be promising on the back of rising FFB production volume for the next few years.

Increasing mature oil palm hectarage will be the main driver for Ta Ann's earnings, contributing more than 60% of earnings for FY11 (from 36% for FY09). We expect earnings from its logging division to remain strong due to robust demand from India (its main export market) and China.

With rising plywood prices after the Japan earthquake in March, its previously loss-making plywood division (due to the high production cost of its Tasmanian operations) will likely be able to turn around in 2011.

Compared to a net loss last year (estimated at about RM15 million to RM20 million), we are now projecting Ta Ann's plywood division will record a net profit of about RM10 million to RM15 million in 2011.

We maintain our forecasts. The risks to our view include: (i) timber and CPO price falling; (ii) a slower-than-expected recovery in Japan's economy; and (iii) bad weather conditions that will hamper log production volume.

Our sum-of-parts-based fair value for Ta Ann is RM8.44 based on unchanged 12 times FY11 timber division earnings and 13 times FY11 plantation division earnings. We maintain our 'outperform' call on the stock. ' RHB Research, May 30


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 31, 2011.

April 5, 2011

TAANN - It's a sellers' market in timber

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHB

Timber sector
Maintain overweight
: Sentiment for the timber sector has improved considerably since the earthquake and tsunami in Japan on March 11. The current situation has a more significant impact on the timber market than the 1995 Kobe earthquake. In 1995, inventory was high, the log supply was consistent, Indonesia was still a fairly dominant supplier to Japan and Japan still had ample domestic production capacity.

We believe tropical log prices will remain firm at above US$200 (RM606) per cu m (currently estimated at US$245 per cu m), even when log production starts to pick up, largely thanks to the robust demand from India and China. Due to the current favourable outlook for plywood demand and prices, there is a possibility that the Sarawak Forestry Department may not extend the 50% log export quota once it expires in June.

We believe it is a sellers' market now for plywood, given the anticipated increase in demand from Japan, low inventory level, limited increase in supply, and disruption in Japan's domestic plywood production. In our view, the favourable outlook for plywood will finally see plywood sales contribute more positively to timber players' earnings, unlike previous years when they incurred losses or only made a small profit from their plywood divisions.

We have revised our FY11/13 earnings forecasts for the timber companies under our coverage, having updated for: (i) higher log prices; (ii) higher plywood prices and utilisation rate; and (iii) higher cost of production for logs and plywood.

The risks include: (i) lower than expected improvement in Japan's housing starts; and (ii) price discounting from neighbouring countries with lower cost of production, resulting in lower exports from Malaysia to its major export markets.

We downgrade our call on WTK Holdings Bhd to 'market perform' (from 'outperform' previously) due to the limited upside to our fair value. WTK's share price has rallied by 65% since the Japan earthquake.

Top picks are Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd and Ta Ann Holdings Bhd. All in all, we reiterate our 'overweight' call on the timber sector. Top picks are Jaya Tiasa ('outperform'; fair value: RM7.84) and Ta Ann ('outperform'; FV: RM7.99) as there will be a significant boost to their earnings from the plantation division going forward due to increasing fresh fruit bunches production, apart from strong earnings contributions from the timber division. ' RHB Research, April 5


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, April 6, 2011.

TAANN - It's a sellers' market in timber

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHB

Timber sector
Maintain overweight
: Sentiment for the timber sector has improved considerably since the earthquake and tsunami in Japan on March 11. The current situation has a more significant impact on the timber market than the 1995 Kobe earthquake. In 1995, inventory was high, the log supply was consistent, Indonesia was still a fairly dominant supplier to Japan and Japan still had ample domestic production capacity.

We believe tropical log prices will remain firm at above US$200 (RM606) per cu m (currently estimated at US$245 per cu m), even when log production starts to pick up, largely thanks to the robust demand from India and China. Due to the current favourable outlook for plywood demand and prices, there is a possibility that the Sarawak Forestry Department may not extend the 50% log export quota once it expires in June.

We believe it is a sellers' market now for plywood, given the anticipated increase in demand from Japan, low inventory level, limited increase in supply, and disruption in Japan's domestic plywood production. In our view, the favourable outlook for plywood will finally see plywood sales contribute more positively to timber players' earnings, unlike previous years when they incurred losses or only made a small profit from their plywood divisions.

We have revised our FY11/13 earnings forecasts for the timber companies under our coverage, having updated for: (i) higher log prices; (ii) higher plywood prices and utilisation rate; and (iii) higher cost of production for logs and plywood.

The risks include: (i) lower than expected improvement in Japan's housing starts; and (ii) price discounting from neighbouring countries with lower cost of production, resulting in lower exports from Malaysia to its major export markets.

We downgrade our call on WTK Holdings Bhd to 'market perform' (from 'outperform' previously) due to the limited upside to our fair value. WTK's share price has rallied by 65% since the Japan earthquake.

Top picks are Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd and Ta Ann Holdings Bhd. All in all, we reiterate our 'overweight' call on the timber sector. Top picks are Jaya Tiasa ('outperform'; fair value: RM7.84) and Ta Ann ('outperform'; FV: RM7.99) as there will be a significant boost to their earnings from the plantation division going forward due to increasing fresh fruit bunches production, apart from strong earnings contributions from the timber division. ' RHB Research, April 5


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, April 6, 2011.

April 4, 2011

TAANN - AmResearch 'neutral' on timber sector

Stock Name: TAANN
Company Name: TA ANN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: AMMB

AmResearch has maintained a "neutral" call on the timber sector and "hold" on Jaya Tiasa Holdings Bhd as well as Ta Ann Holdings Bhd with a fair value of RM7.11 per share and RM7.10 per share
respectively.

AmResearch in a research note today said a further sector earnings upgrade appears to be unlikely due to the tight supply of logs despite an expected increase in demand from Japan.

It said the supply of logs may not be able to keep up with the
anticipated increase in demand from Japan, as individual company's were limited by the concession hectarage.

For Ta Ann Holdings, it said the company's net profit for the financial year 2011 was projected to rise by 56 per cent to RM120 million from RM77.2 million in the financial year 2010.

Its domestic log production is expected to increase by 13 per cent to 500,000 cubic meters in the current financial year from 442,334 cubic meters previously, AmResearch said.

Meanwhile, it said Jaya Tiasa's financial year 2011 net profit was forecast to surge to RM127 million from RM24.4 million previously.

Earnings per share is projected at 46.7 sen for Ta Ann Holdings and 47.4 sen for Jaya Tiasa with gross dividend yield per share offered at 2.2 per cent by Ta Ann Holdings and at least 0.5 per cent by Jaya Tiasa. --Bernama