February 13, 2012

RHBInvest Research Highlights 13th February 2012

Stock Name: PBBANK
Company Name: PUBLIC BANK BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 15.00

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.47

Stock Name: CIMB
Company Name: CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 7.41

Stock Name: AMMB
Company Name: AMMB HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 6.23

Stock Name: HLBANK
Company Name: HONG LEONG BANK BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 11.01

Stock Name: AFFIN
Company Name: AFFIN HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 3.10

Stock Name: AFG
Company Name: ALLIANCE FINANCIAL GROUP BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 3.56

Stock Name: MBSB
Company Name: MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 2.32

Stock Name: RCECAP
Company Name: RCE CAPITAL BHD
Research House: RHBPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 0.57



13th February 2012
 
Malaysia Equities
Top Story
Banks ' Easing Headwinds + YTD Underperformance = Sector Upgrade              Neutral (Upgraded)
Sector Update
Public Bank ' Fair value at RM15.00 (from RM14.10)                                                     Outperform
Maybank ' Fair value at RM9.47 (from RM7.33)                                          Outperform (upgraded)
CIMB ' Fair value at RM7.41 (from RM6.20)                                          Market Perform (upgraded)
AMMB ' Fair value at RM6.23 (from RM4.99)                                        Market Perform (upgraded)
HL Bank ' Fair value at RM11.01 (from RM9.90)                                                        Underperform
Affin ' Fair value at RM3.10 (from RM2.37)                                                                Underperform
AFG ' Fair value at RM3.56 (from RM3.25)                                                                Underperform
MBSB ' Fair value at RM2.32 (from RM1.95)                                                           Market Perform
RCE ' Fair value at RM0.57 (from RM0.50)                                                              Market Perform
 
 
Sector Update
Plantation ' Only Time Can Resolve The Indonesian Tax Structure Problem                    Overweight
Sector Update
-          The seasonal decline in production continued in Jan as CPO production fell 13.8% mom. Exports fell by a slightly smaller 13.2% mom also due to seasonal factors, post-festive season. Despite the lower CPO stock levels, annualised stock/usage ratio rose to 11.1% (up from 10.5% in Dec), mainly due to the smaller export volume in Jan.
 
Corporate Highlights
SEG International ' No Signs of Slowing Down                                                            Outperform
Visit Note
-          The management expects total student population of 35k (vs. our previous assumptions of 37k) by end-2012, implying yoy growth of almost 30% from the current 27k.
 
Gamuda ' PDP Terms For Klang Valley MRT Announced                                        Market Perform
Company Update
-          The agreement between MRT Co and project delivery partner (PDP) for the Klang Valley MRT project MMC-Gamuda JV has been signed with key terms being: 1) The PDP will be paid a fee equivalent to 6% of total contract value; 2) If the actual project cost exceeds the target cost by up to 15%, the PDP fee will be reduced in accordance with an agreed formula; 3) The PDP will have to shoulder the balance if the actual project cost exceeds the target cost by 15%; and 4) The PDP is liable to a liquidated and ascertained damage (LAD) for late delivery of RM500,000/day.
 
MPHB ' Sells down stake in Associate, Philippine Racing Club                                       Outperform
News Update
-          MPHB has sold a 13.1% stake in Philippine Racing Club Inc. (PRCI) at an average price of Peso 9.50/share, for Peso 722.4m (RM51.64m). Post-disposal, MPHB will own 19.9% of PRCI, and will no longer equity account it as an associate. MPHB will record a dispoal gain of RM17.34m.
 
CSC Steel ' 4QFY12/11 in the red on inventory writedown                                             Trading Buy
Results Note
-          FY11 net profit exceeded our full-year forecast by 42%, but missed the full-year market consensus by 22%. The variance against our forecast largely came from a lower-than-expected writedown of inventories. CSC Steel also declared a 7sen single tier dividend (net yield of 4.9%).
 
 
Regional Equities
Indonesia Banks : Opportunity To Accumulate                                                             Overweight
Sector Update
Bank Rakyat ' Fair value IDR8,200                                                                               Outperform
Bank Mandiri ' Fair value IDR7,900                                                                             Outperform
BCA ' Fair value IDR7,500                                                                                     Market Perform
Bank Danamon Fair value IDR5,500                                                                             Outperform
 
Macro
GDP ' Resilient GDP Growth In 4Q 2011, Odds Of An Upgrade Improving
Economic Update (published 10 Feb 2012)
-          The country's real GDP growth is estimated to have softened to 5.4% yoy in the 4Q, after bouncing back to +5.8% in the 3Q. The moderation in real GDP growth is expected to persist into 2012, due to global economic slowdown amidst a lingering sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone.
 

Gamuda: Maintain Buy - Signed and sealed

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.10



Manageable terms. The KVMRT SBK PDP terms are well structured, giving the PDP reasonable room to manage the project delivery, in our view. We estimate that the PDP fee attributable to Gamuda works out to be 13sen/share, to be recognised over 5 years. We raise our net profit forecasts by 12% (FY12) and 17% (FY13) after imputing higher margins for existing construction and property projects, and the PDP fee from FY13. We maintain our RM4.10 RNAV-based target price, which has incorporated the KVMRT SBK PDP and tunnelling works.

Maybank Research 13 Feb 2012

Click here for full report

Multi-Purpose Holdings: Maintain Buy - The wheels are in motion

Stock Name: MPHB
Company Name: MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 3.82



Buy now or forever hold your peace. Multi-Purpose Holdings (MPHB) disposed 13% of Philippine Racing Club (PRC PM, Not Rated) for RM51.6m cash. This is reaffirmation of its commitment to dispose non-core assets, degear its balance sheet and pay more dividends going forward. We raise our TP from RM3.54 to RM3.82 as we roll forward our SOP based valuation. Maintain Buy.


Maybank Research 13 Feb 2012

Click here for full report

Tanjung Offshore: Maintain Sell - Closes Citech, Tanjung CSI next?

Stock Name: TGOFFS
Company Name: TANJUNG OFFSHORE BHD
Research House: MAYBANKPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.70



Maintain Sell. TOFF's move to shut down Citech and take a heavy hit in 4Q11 will be painful in the short term but operationally positive in the longer term as the Group takes constructive steps to restructure its businesses. We think it will address its troubled engineering equipment division next. While we laud these efforts, we are maintaining our Sell call on concerns over its high gearing and the probability of further impairments. Last Friday's spike in share price (+10%) is fundamentally unwarranted in our view, and is an opportunity to exit.

Maybank Research 13 Feb 2012

Click here for full report

PDP done deal, what next?

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 3.51



Data to drive earnings

Stock Name: AXIATA
Company Name: AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
Research House: ECMLIBRAPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 5.20



Malaysian Genomics Resource - 2QFY12 Results - A short gene

Stock Name: MGRC
Company Name: MSIAN GENOMICS RES CENTRE BHD
Research House: CIMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.35



'MMC-Gamuda likely to win tunnelling job'

Stock Name: GAMUDA
Company Name: GAMUDA BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.57



MMC-Gamuda Joint Venture Sdn Bhd's (MMC-Gamuda JV) chances of clinching the tunnelling work for the Sungai Buloh-Kajang Line (SBK Line), worth RM8 billion, remains high, says OSK Research Sdn Bhd.

The research house said the tunnelling portion of the project was expected to be announced in April and MMC-Gamuda JV stood a good chance of clinching the project as the government preferred local contractors.

MMC-Gamuda's previous experience in the construction of the Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel and Koahsiung My Rapid Transit project in Taiwan was also expected to hold the joint venture company in good light with the government.

The entire SBK Line is targetted to be completed by July 31, 2017, it added.

Against this backdrop, OSK Research maintained a "buy" on MMC-Gamuda JV with a lower fair value of RM4.57, from RM4.46, previously. -- BERNAMA

Recovery May Take Some Time

Stock Name: NOTION
Company Name: NOTION VTEC BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 1.77



Citech closure to deliver 4QFY11 loss

Stock Name: TGOFFS
Company Name: TANJUNG OFFSHORE BHD
Research House: AMMBPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 0.71