February 2, 2012

MIDF 'neutral' on banking sector

Stock Name: MAYBANK
Company Name: MALAYAN BANKING BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 10.60

Stock Name: RHBCAP
Company Name: RHB CAPITAL BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 9.20

Stock Name: AFG
Company Name: ALLIANCE FINANCIAL GROUP BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 4.10



KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Research is neutral on the banking sector as it expects net profits this year to be moderated by slower economic growth.

In a note today, MIDF said loan growth for this year was expected to be dampened and would grow at a slower rate of nine per cent.

It said exports and industrial production were expected to be affected by external environment.

"Eventhough the private sector is expected to cushion the impact from debt crisis and weaknesses of the advanced economies, overall, the growth of the domestic economy would still be impacted," it said.

MIDF said it expected the household sector loan growth to be trending lower for this year due to the new guidelines introduced by Bank Negara Malaysia on responsible financing to the retail sector.

"Judging from the key indicators, loan applications and approval slowed down in December 2011 which suggest a likelihood of a slower loan growth momentum moving into this year," it said.

It maintained its 'buy' calls on RHB Band with a target price of RM9.20 and Alliance Financial Group Bhd at RM4.10.

Meanwhile, HwangDBS Vickers Research expected the banking sector's growth to be led by both retail and business loans.

In a note today, HwangDBS said last year's loan growth hit 13.6 per cent as per its forecast, boosted by 1.5 per cent growth in December 2011.

"Overall, loans growth grew by 12 per cent, while business loans grew by 15 per cent," it said.

HwangDBS has recommended a 'buy' call on Maybank with a target price of RM10.60 for its resilient transactional banking income and dividend yields.

It also picked Hong Leong Bank for the potential synergies as a newly-merged entity. -- BERNAMA

HwangDBS keeps 'buy' call on Guan Chong

Stock Name: GUANCHG
Company Name: GUAN CHONG BHD
Research House: DBS VICKERSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.80



HwangDBS Vickers Research has maintained a "buy" call on Guan Chong Bhd shares with a lower target price of RM2.80.

In a research note today, HwangDBS said Guan Chong was expected to meet its full-year financial year 2011 net profit estimate of RM118.8 million but lack order visibilty post-financial year 2011.

HwangDBS said beyond the near-germ global uncertainties, the group was poised to be among the top five largest cocoa processors in the world.

"The group normally signs forward contracts with buyers to sell cocoa butter and cocoa powder or cake products to secure sales upfront," it said.

It said Guan Chong was also a net beneficiary of a stronger US dollar as nearly all receivables (exports accounted for over 95 per cent of sales) and payables were dominated in US dollar.

"This also provides a natural edge for the group's borrowings (RM384 million at end-September 2011), which are mostly denominated in US dollar and primarily used to purchase cocoa beans," it said.

HwangDBS said the stock, after plunging from a high of RM2.52 in November 2011 to a low of RM1.99 in December 2011, has recovered to RM2.33 currently.

It said the progressive disposal of 10.3 million Guan Chong shares and the cessation of Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera as a substantial shareholder at end-December 2011 may lift near-term overhang on the stock. -- Bernama

Better days ahead

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: ZJPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 6.40



Overweight rate on rubber gloves sector stays

Stock Name: SUPERMX
Company Name: SUPERMAX CORPORATION BHD
Research House: OSKPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 2.75



OSK Research retained its Overweight rating on the rubber gloves sector with its top pick being Supermax with a target price of RM2.75.

As at 4.55pm, the Supermax share price was unchanged at RM2.14.
In its research report, OSK Research said the high rating on the company was premised on its attractive valuation and the fact that it operated in a recession-resilient industry.

It also said that there had been isolated cases of bird flu in Asia and that although it has not reached alarming levels, healthcare MNCs may prepare themselves by gradually stocking up rubber gloves to avoid buying them at "cut throat" price should there be a pandemic break out.

It said risks included further artificial support of rubber prices by the Indonesian and Malaysian governments, and a rising Ringgit.

It expects latex price to stay above RM7 in the shorter term.
"This is due to the uplift in sentiment for the commodity created by the Thai Government," OSK Research said.
Last week, the media reported that the Thai Cabinet had approved a plan to increase the price of locally-grown natural rubber to THB120 (RM11.84)/kg.

This is done through the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives offering soft loans of THB5bn to local agricultural institutes and another THB10bn soft loan to the Rubber Estate Organization, both at zero per cent interest to help them purchase natural rubber from local rubber farmers.

The main reasons given for the intervention include the poor rubber prices arising from the global economic slowdown; the flooding crisis in Thailand which had temporarily suspended its production of automobiles and parts, and slower automotive growth in China.

China also slowed down its purchase of Thai natural rubber and instead had switched to the cheaper Indonesian rubber.
"In our view, unless the Thai Government continues to support the price of rubber in the longer run, the price would still be ultimately decided by the forces of demand and supply," OSK Research said. -- Bernama

February 1, 2012

HwangDBS Malaysia Equity Research - 31 Jan 2012

Stock Name: AIRPORT
Company Name: MALAYSIA AIRPORT HOLDINGS BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 6.70

Stock Name: TENAGA
Company Name: TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 7.00



Malaysia Airport Holdings; Hold; RM5.75
Price target: RM6.70; MAHB MK
Fund raising to cover higher costs of klia2

Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB) has proposed a private placement of 110m new shares, equivalent to 10% of its issued share capital of 1.1bn, in an effort to part finance klia2 which is slated to begin operations in April 2013. The pricing for the placement has not been determined yet and potential investors will be identified via a book building exercise later.

Assuming MAHB issues its new placement shares at RM5.50 per share, it would be able to raise RM605m, which would be used to finance the construction of new klia2. At this pricing level, the funds raised would be higher than our initial assumption of RM550m previously. This would reduce the additional borrowings required by MAHB. The Group expects to complete this fund raising exercise by 1H2012.

Tenaga Nasional; Buy; RM5.97
Price target: RM7.00; TNB MK
TNB's CEO will not renew contract upon expiry in June

Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) CEO Datuk Seri Che Khalib Mohd Noh will not be renewing his contract when it expires in June this year after heading the national utility for the past seven years. TNB's board has accepted his request and has begun finding a replacement.

It is reported that the most suitable replacement would be TNB's chief operating officer/executive director Datuk Azman Mohd, but TNB is also getting consultants to identify potential candidates. An internal candidate would ensure smooth transition, while a new candidate may bring new excitement to TNB. Nevertheless, we expect minimal impact to TNB's stock price as the development is not new. The CEO has indicated earlier that he will not renew his contract upon expiry. In addition, the Energy Commission has taken a more proactive role recently to look into problems related to the power sector and take charge of the competitive bidding process for the new power plants. The Energy Commission is also responsible for the tariff review proposal.

We maintain our Buy rating for TNB with RM7.00 TP for strong earnings recovery in FY12. We expect TNB's earnings to recover strongly in FY12F following the RM2bn gas compensation and increase in gas supply to 1,150mmscfd for FY12. The gas shortages issue should also be resolved following the completion of the new regas plant by Petgas in Jul 2012.

January 31, 2012

Another Bad Quarter

Stock Name: MPI
Company Name: MALAYSIAN PACIFIC INDUSTRIES
Research House: OSKPrice Call: SELLTarget Price: 2.00



Moderating earnings growth trend to continue into FY12

Stock Name: PBBANK
Company Name: PUBLIC BANK BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: HOLDTarget Price: 13.30



Freight rates have bottomed, but it will be a "long" U-shaped recovery

Stock Name: MAYBULK
Company Name: MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD
Research House: MIDFPrice Call: TRADING SELLTarget Price: 1.61



HwangDBS Malaysia Equity Research - 31 Jan 2012 (Part 2)

Stock Name: PBBANK
Company Name: PUBLIC BANK BHD
Research House: HWANGDBSPrice Call: BUYTarget Price: 14.90



Highlights
 
Regional Gaming
A tale of three cities

GENS: Stronger 2H12 will full opening of RWS. GENM: Strong free cashflow from Malaysia's resilient mass market will underpin US expansion plans. GENHK: GGR growth at RWM will remain strong as operations ramp up and future competition is likely to be delayed. GENS and GENT remain our top picks; GENHK's valuation is attractive.


Result Snapshot
 

Public Bank; Buy; RM13.44Price target: RM14.90; PBKF MK
Sustained healthy momentum

FY11 result was within expectations; slight deviation in non-interest income. Earnings driven by consistent loan growth, stable asset quality and best cost-to-income ratio. Declared 28sen DPS, taking full year dividend to 48sen or 48% payout; future payout at c.50%. Maintain Buy with RM14.90 TP.

DRB-Hicom upgraded to 'outperform'



DRB-Hicom Bhd rose 1.1 percent to RM2.79, on course for its highest close since July 2003.

The stock was upgraded to "outperform" with its so-called fair value increased to RM3.45 from RM2.20 at RHB Capital Bhd after profit estimates were raised, Alexander Chia, an analyst, wrote in a report today. -- Bloomberg